Turkish local elections 2024: A seismic shift in power dynamics

Special Turkish local elections 2024: A seismic shift in power dynamics
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Two women sit near a campaign banner of Turkish President and leader of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, Recep Tayyip in Istanbul, Turkiye, Monday, March 11, 2024. (AP Photo)
Special Turkish local elections 2024: A seismic shift in power dynamics
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Turkish President and leader of Justice and Development (AK) Party Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers a speech after the country's local municipal elections at AK Party HQ, Ankara, Apr. 1, 2024. (AFP)
Special Turkish local elections 2024: A seismic shift in power dynamics
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Supporters of the Justice and Development (AK) Party cheer as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers a speech in Ankara after the Turkish local municipal elections on April 1, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 01 April 2024
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Turkish local elections 2024: A seismic shift in power dynamics

Turkish local elections 2024: A seismic shift in power dynamics
  • Ruling AKP suffers major blow as main opposition CHP scores victories across the country
  • Sunday’s results could be step toward a presidential bid, analyst tells Arab News 

ANKARA: After millions of Turkish voters went to the polls on Sunday to elect local authorities in 81 provinces, the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, suffered a major blow as the main opposition CHP scored victories across the country, consolidating its control in conservative strongholds with its biggest victory since 1977.

Experts suggested Sunday’s vote was a barometer of the national feeling among voters who have long struggled with a severe cost of living crisis.

The main question of the mayoral election was whether incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, 52, an arch-rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and a charismatic leader in his own right, could secure re-election in the city of 15.7 million people, against rival Murat Kurum, 47, the AKP candidate and the country’s former urbanization minister.

Erdogan, who was mayor of Istanbul himself between 1994 and 1997, once claimed that whoever wins the city will be able to dominate the whole country in a general election.

With a third of Turkiye’s economic output and 18 percent of the country’s population, Istanbul’s annual budget is $16 billion.

In the last local elections in 2019, Turkiye’s united opposition won the main cities of Ankara, the capital, and Istanbul, the commercial hub, ending the ruling party’s 25-year reign.

After Sunday’s vote, the main opposition CHP became the leading party, controlling 36 of the country’s 81 provinces.

Erdogan, 70, conceded defeat, saying: “March 31 is not an end for us, but a turning point.”

The president’s current term of office expires in four years. The AKP’s loss of votes nationally and defeats in major cities are expected to prevent it from initiating new constitutional changes that would allow Erdogan to rule beyond 2028.

Turkiye’s next elections will be held then, barring a snap election or referendum.

Imamoglu’s re-election is also expected to unite the Turkish opposition, as he is seen as a possible future challenger to Erdogan and the opposition’s best chance of regaining the presidency.

The incumbent mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, also retained his position by a large margin.

Murat Somer, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Ozyegin University, said Turkish voters had given a big red card to the Erdogan government’s “authoritarianism and economic policies,” while rewarding opposition politicians who have been willing to reform since the May elections, punishing those who have been caught up in infighting.

“In return, Turkiye’s opposition parties have shown remarkable resilience and ability to regenerate despite a very uneven playing field in favour of the government. Ekrem Imamoglu has emerged as the new leader of the opposition and an agent of change for the next decade,” he told Arab News.

Turnout was around 76 percent, with some 61 million people eligible to vote, a significant drop from last year when 87 percent of voters cast their ballots. The decline in votes for the AKP is also partly explained by the emergence of several right-wing and Islamist parties to compete with it.

According to Somer, if Imamoglu can turn the broad coalition he has formed in Istanbul into a Turkiye-wide coalition, he may just be able to steer Turkiye onto a new and more inclusive course of economic development, peace and secular democracy.

“The most important aspect of this process is that it is a bottom-up rather than a top-down process. Large parts of the electorate of the ruling AKP, the right-wing IYI party and the pro-Kurdish Dem Parti seem to have voted against their party’s preferences and in favour of an ethnically, culturally and ideologically inclusive national alliance for democracy and change,” he said.

Somer also believes that the impact of this new local fault line on Turkiye’s political future will depend on how Erdogan and his party interpret the electorate’s message.

“It is less likely that he will go against the will of the people, because despite all the authoritarianism, the principle of popular sovereignty is well established in Turkiye. These results suggest that opposition parties should follow the lead of the electorate in forming coalitions rather than the other way around,” he said.

Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul, agrees that this is a historic victory for the country’s main opposition camp.

“Much of the media was under government control, and 17 government ministers used taxpayers’ money to campaign for the government candidates in Istanbul,” he told Arab News.

“And so, the CHP candidates, who were fighting an uphill battle, ended up winning all over the country, even in some conservative strongholds, like Adiyaman, almost doubling the number of provinces it controls and increasing its share of major municipalities from 11 to 15. This is truly historic,” he told Arab News.

Esen believes it will be very difficult for Erdogan to stabilize Turkiye’s competitive authoritarian regime in the future.

“I don’t expect him to go for early elections, even if the opposition asks him to do so. He may try to stabilize Turkiye’s economy, but given how much the current economic policies have minimized the AKP’s base in this election, it is difficult to really see how much longer such policies can continue. And even if the economy is managed, the Turkish economy will not necessarily see the phenomenal growth rates we saw in the 2000s,” he said.

The Turkish economy grew by 4.5 percent last year, according to official statistics, and inflation is soaring to almost 70 percent.

With Turkiye’s main local governments now controlled by opposition mayors, many of whom have increased their margins of victory, Esen believes it will be difficult for Erdogan to disrupt their municipal services.

“It will also be very difficult for Erdogan to impose his will and for civil servants, judges and journalists to act in a partisan manner,” he said.

The CHP “will also speak out against violations of freedoms, political rights and probably on the Kurdish question. I don’t think the election results will push Turkiye in a more authoritarian direction,” he added.

Esen also expects some power struggles within the AKP with Erdogan, which could see many people purged from the party.

Esen believes that the election results have highlighted several key points.

“First of all, the candidates matter. The opposition ended up with some really credible candidates in Istanbul and Ankara at the district level, who reflect the electorate they want to represent,” he added.

“On their side, the government has pursued a tight monetary policy, as opposed to pushing for an expansionary fiscal policy as we saw in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections last year. I think that played a really big role as well,” Esen said.

Meanwhile, experts stress that the drop in turnout could be explained by the disillusionment of many pro-government voters over the ongoing economic downturn.

For Esen, Sunday’s election results could also be a new step toward a presidential bid.

Yavas and Imamoglu may consider running for president as of today, he said.

They both have “different political profiles and appeal to different segments of the Turkish electorate. I think they will start building a nationwide campaign,” he said.

Esen expects this to be Erdogan’s last election.

“Because I am not sure if he will be able to run such an effective campaign against these two formidable politicians. But we will also see a transition to a parliamentary system at some point, because Erdogan does not want to hand over so much power to the opposition. It is also an interesting question to explore,” he said.

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Future looks dire for UN Palestinian refugee agency, says UNRWA chief

Palestinian boy sits beside an aid box provided by UNRWA outside a distribution point in Khan Younis. (Reuters)
Palestinian boy sits beside an aid box provided by UNRWA outside a distribution point in Khan Younis. (Reuters)
Updated 53 min 6 sec ago
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Future looks dire for UN Palestinian refugee agency, says UNRWA chief

Palestinian boy sits beside an aid box provided by UNRWA outside a distribution point in Khan Younis. (Reuters)
  • Even in East Jerusalem, Lazzarini said, health care and other services provided by UNRWA “are continuing, though not necessarily at the same scope it used to be”

BEIRUT: The head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees said Thursday that while an Israeli ban has not yet forced the agency to cease operations, it faces an “existential threat” in the long run.
“I have been very clear that despite all the obstacles and the pressure the agency is under, our objective is to stay and deliver until we are prevented to do so,” Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner general of the UN Relief and Works Agency, also known as UNRWA, said in an interview with The Associated Press during a visit to Beirut.
Israel last week formally banned UNRWA from operating on its territory. As a result, Lazzarini said, international staff have had to leave East Jerusalem because their visas expired, but in Gaza and the West Bank there has been no immediate impact on operations.
Even in East Jerusalem, he said, health care and other services provided by UNRWA “are continuing, though not necessarily at the same scope it used to be.”
UNRWA is also likely to face increased pressure from the United States under the new Trump administration.
US President Donald Trump in recent days proposed permanently resettling the approximately 2 million Palestinians in Gaza in neighboring Arab countries and suggested the United States taking long-term control of Gaza.
Lazzarini called the proposal “totally unrealistic,” adding, “We are talking about forced displacement. Forced displacement is a crime, an international crime. It’s ethnic cleansing.”
Trump announced Tuesday that Washington will not resume funding for UNRWA — which had already been halted since January 2024 when the Biden administration stopped it following accusations by Israel that UNRWA staffers in Gaza took part in the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that sparked the war in Gaza.
Israel had alleged that 19 out of UNRWA’s approximately 13,000 staff in Gaza took part in the attack. UNRWA said it fired nine staffers after an internal UN investigation found evidence that they could have been involved.
While several other donor countries also suspended funding at the time, all but the US decided to resume funding.
Lazzarini called the loss of US support “a challenge,” but said the agency is appealing to Gulf Arab countries and other donors to increase their contributions. He described his agency as the target of a “massive disinformation campaign” with a politically motivated objective of dismantling it.
UNRWA’s opponents believe the agency has prolonged the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by giving refugee status to the descendants of Palestinian refugees who fled or were forced from their homes in what is now Israel in 1948, thus maintaining for them, in theory, the right of return.
Lazzarini said those who think that UNRWA can simply be dissolved and its responsibilities handed over to other institutions are mistaken.
UNRWA provides aid and services — including health and education — to some 2.5 million Palestinian refugees in Gaza and the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem, as well as 3 million more in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. Since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, it has been the main lifeline for a population reliant on humanitarian aid in Gaza.
Lazzarini said that while replaceable by a functioning public institution, UNRWA provides essential public services that no other UN agency offers on such a scale. It has served as a “substitute in the absence of the state for the Palestinian refugees,” he said. He argued that the only way to end the agency’s mandate is as part of a political process resulting in a Palestinian state alongside Israel, so that “at the end of this process, the agency can hand over its services to an empowered Palestinian institution.”
The alternative, he said, is to “let the agency implode and abruptly end its activities, which would mean additional suffering for one of the most destitute populations in the region.”


Lebanese government formation stalls over minister selection

Lebanese government formation stalls over minister selection
Updated 06 February 2025
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Lebanese government formation stalls over minister selection

Lebanese government formation stalls over minister selection
  • Nabih Berri rejected the name of the fifth minister, which was proposed by Nawaf Salam in consultation with Joseph Aoun
  • Parallel to the government formation process, the fate of the Israeli withdrawal from the southern border area remains a source of Lebanese concern

BEIRUT: Lebanese leaders were close to reaching a new government lineup on Thursday, three weeks after the designation of Nawaf Salam to form the Cabinet.

However, last-minute changes occurred after parliament speaker Nabih Berri rejected the name of the fifth minister, which was proposed by Salam in consultation with President Joseph Aoun, stalling the formation process.

A political source following the formation process told Arab News that “things didn’t reach a deadlock," adding that “there’s an understanding of the importance to reach a governmental lineup as soon as possible, and under this understanding, the name of the fifth Shiite minister is being reconsidered.”

The government, he said, might be announced in the coming two days.

Aoun received Salam and Berri at the presidential palace. Mahmoud Makieh, secretary-general of the council of ministers, was subsequently summoned, signaling that the governmental lineup was ready to be announced by Makieh.

However, Berri left the presidential palace two hours after the meeting, followed by Salam.

According to information circulating at the palace, the selection of the fifth Shiite minister remains the root cause of the problem.

Aoun and Salam insist on naming the fifth Shiite minister in the government in lieu of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.

That is because they want to avoid repeating former premier Saad Hariri’s experience, whose government lost its legitimacy and collapsed in 2011 following the resignation of 11 Shiite ministers.

According to the political source, Salam insists on appointing Lamia Moubayed, who previously held the position of head of the Basil Fuleihan Institute of Finance, for the Administrative Development portfolio, a choice that Berri rejected.

The source said that the president was handling the issue, especially since Berri insists on having a say in naming the fifth Shiite minister, after having already proposed the names of the other four ministers in coordination with Hezbollah — figures close to them but not affiliated with any party.

On Wednesday night, after meeting Aoun, Salam reaffirmed his commitment to “forming a government with a high level of harmony among its members, committed to the principle of ministerial solidarity, and this applies to all ministers without exception.”

Salam emphasized his efforts to “form a reformist government composed of highly competent individuals, and I will not allow any element within it that could obstruct its work in any way.”

He stressed that “in the process of forming previous governments, there were inherited customs and narrow calculations that some find difficult to abandon or to accept a new approach in dealing with.

“However, I am determined to confront these practices and adhere to the constitution and the standards I have previously announced — excluding parliamentary candidates from joining the government and preventing the appointment of partisan figures.

“These standards provide an additional guarantee for the independence of the government's work, the integrity and neutrality of the upcoming elections, addressing the major challenges ahead, and laying the groundwork for reforms to rebuild the Lebanese state in a manner befitting its citizens.”

If formed, Salam’s government is expected to consist of 24 ministers, most of whom will be technocrats, according to leaked names.

Parallel to the government formation process, the fate of the Israeli withdrawal from the southern border area remains a source of Lebanese concern.

Aoun emphasized to the chief of staff of the UN Truce Supervision Organization, Maj. Gen. Patrick Gauchat, whom he met on Thursday, the necessity of “implementing Resolution 1701, ensuring the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territories occupied in the recent war, and releasing Lebanese prisoners.”

On Thursday, Israeli forces continued to demolish the remaining houses in the southern town of Kafr Kila.

The Israeli army issued a new warning to the residents in the border area that had not yet been evacuated, advising them not to move south.

Avichai Adraee, spokesperson for the Israeli military, said: “The Israeli army remains deployed in the field. Therefore, you are prohibited from returning to your homes in the areas in question until further notice. Anyone attempting to move south is at risk.”

On the Lebanese Syrian border, tensions escalated between the new Syrian administration and Lebanese tribal groups involved in smuggling through illegal crossings in Hawik — a town straddling both Lebanese and Syrian territories and populated by Lebanese-origin residents with Syrian citizenship. The Syrian administration is working to secure the border and close these crossings following recent rocket and artillery clashes.

A Lebanese security source reported that “two members of the Syrian administration were killed, and two others were captured.” Video footage circulated online showed the captives being beaten and bleeding.

Shells also struck the Lebanese border town of Al-Qasr, injuring a Lebanese soldier.

According to security reports, Syrian administration forces entered the town two hours later and deployed reinforcements to maintain control of the border.

Many residents of Lebanese origin fled the town toward Lebanese territory in the aftermath.

About 150,000 Syrians, mostly Shiites and Alawites, fled to the Baalbek-Hermel region following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria.


Aga Khan IV to be buried in Egypt on Sunday

Aga Khan IV to be buried in Egypt on Sunday
Updated 06 February 2025
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Aga Khan IV to be buried in Egypt on Sunday

Aga Khan IV to be buried in Egypt on Sunday
  • Aga Khan IV will be laid to rest at a private burial ceremony in Aswan, Egypt on Sunday
  • His son, Prince Rahim Al-Hussaini was named the 50th hereditary Imam

LISBON: The late Prince Karim Al-Hussaini Aga Khan IV, who died on Tuesday in Lisbon after nearly seven decades as the spiritual leader of the global Ismaili Muslim community, will be buried in Egypt on Sunday, according to the Ismaili Imamat.
After a funeral ceremony at the Ismaili Center in the Portuguese capital on Saturday — to be attended by leaders of the community, Portuguese government members and foreign dignitaries — Aga Khan IV will be laid to rest at a private burial ceremony in Aswan, Egypt on Sunday, it said in a statement on Thursday.
Known for his wealth and development work around the world through the Aga Khan Development Network, Prince Karim died in Lisbon, the seat of the Ismaili Imamat, at age 88 on Tuesday.
His son, Prince Rahim Al-Hussaini was named the 50th hereditary Imam, or spiritual leader, on Wednesday, according to his father’s will.
As Aga Khan — derived from Turkish and Persian words to mean commanding chief — he is believed by Ismailis to be a direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad through the prophet’s cousin and son-in-law, Ali, the first Imam, and his wife Fatima, the Prophet’s daughter.
The world’s Ismaili community, a branch of Shiite Islam, comprises around 15 million people who live in Central Asia, the Middle East, South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and North America.
Set up in 1967, the AKDN group of international development agencies employs 80,000 people helping to build schools and hospitals and providing electricity for millions of people in the poorest parts of Africa and Asia.
Aga Khan IV also kept up his family’s long tradition of thoroughbred racing and breeding. His stables and riders, wearing his emerald-green silk livery, enjoyed great successes at the top international derbies.


Bahraini king arrives in UAE

Bahraini king arrives in UAE
Updated 06 February 2025
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Bahraini king arrives in UAE

Bahraini king arrives in UAE

LONDON: King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa of Bahrain arrived in the UAE on Thursday.

Sheikh Hamdan bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the ruler’s representative in the Al-Dhafra region, received the king on his arrival.

During his visit to the UAE, King Hamad will be accompanied by Sheikh Nasser bin Hamad Al-Khalifa and Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, among other senior officials, the Bahrain News Agency reported.


Palestinian PM meets Arab League’s chief in Cairo

Palestinian PM meets Arab League’s chief in Cairo
Updated 06 February 2025
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Palestinian PM meets Arab League’s chief in Cairo

Palestinian PM meets Arab League’s chief in Cairo
  • Mohammad Mustafa says priority is to back Palestinians’ right to remain in Gaza

LONDON: Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa said during his visit to Egypt on Thursday that the Palestinian Authority was coordinating with Arab countries to address the urgent reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.

Mustafa met Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the secretary-general of the Arab League, at the organization’s headquarters in Cairo. The parties discussed ongoing humanitarian efforts to assist residents of the Gaza Strip.

Mustafa said that Palestinians in Gaza were experiencing “a difficult period” following US President Donald Trump’s remarks about relocating them to other countries, including Jordan and Egypt, both of which had rejected the idea.

He commended the Arab League’s support and said that the PA had already set in motion actions for rebuilding the Gaza Strip. Israel has bombed the region into rubble since late 2023, killing about 47,000 Palestinians.

Mustafa added that Gaza was part of Palestinian territory and emphasized that PA’s priority was to support Palestinians in the area to remain in the enclave.

He said: “We want to assure our people in the Gaza Strip that we will not leave them in this situation, and the coming days will be better.”

The meeting was attended by Maj. Gen. Ziad Hab Al-Rih, Palestine’s minister of interior; Palestine’s Ambassador to the Arab League Muhannad Al-Aklouk; The Arab League’s Assistant Secretary-General for Palestine Ambassador Saeed Abu Ali; and Ambassador Hossam Zaki, the assistant secretary-general of the Arab League.