ISLAMABAD: A team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistani officials on Monday began formal talks in Islamabad for a fresh, longer-term bailout program for the cash-strapped South Asian country, the Pakistani finance ministry said.
The South Asian country, which has been facing low foreign exchange reserves, currency devaluation and high inflation, last month completed a short-term $3 billion IMF program that helped stave off a sovereign default, but the incumbent government of PM Shehbaz Sharif has stressed the need for a fresh, longer-term program.
While Islamabad has said it expects a staff-level agreement by July, both Pakistani and IMF officials have refrained from commenting on the size of the program. The South Asian country is expected to seek around $7-8 billion bailout from the global lender.
On Monday, the IMF team, led by Mission Chief Nathan Porter, met Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, central bank governor, chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue and other officials to kickstart discussions on further engagement with the lender.
“The Finance Minister welcomed the IMF team and thanked them for the successful completion of the [$3 billion] Standby Arrangement (SBA),” the Pakistani finance ministry said in a statement.
“The Finance Minister apprised the IMF team of the improvement in the macro-economic indicators over the course of the SBA and underscored the government’s commitment to continue with and expand upon the reform agenda.”
Pakistan narrowly averted a default last summer and its $350 billion economy has slightly stabilized after the completion of the last IMF program, with inflation coming down to around 17 percent in April from a record high of 38 percent in May last year.
However, the South Asian country is still dealing with a high fiscal shortfall and while it has controlled its external account deficit through import control mechanisms, it has come at the expense of stagnating growth, which is expected to be around 2 percent this year, compared to negative growth last year.
Wall Street Bank Citi expects Pakistan to reach an agreement with the IMF of up to $8 billion program by end-July, and recommends going long on the country’s 2027 international bond.
“While longer-term challenges pertain, we see several positive catalysts supporting the Eurobonds,” Nikola Apostolov at Citi wrote in a note to clients.
“First, a larger and longer IMF EFF (Extended Fund Facility) program could be finalized by July – possibly a $7-8 billion 4-year program and secondly and a possible inflow of Saudi investments,” Apostolov said after a team from Citi visited Pakistan and met policymakers, including Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.
Citi said it expected Pakistan’s international 2027 bond to offer a sweet spot to investors with sufficient liquidity and large upside as risks of default dissipate further.
— With additional inputs from Reuters.
