Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?

Analysis Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?
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Fires burn as a result of rockets launched from Lebanon into northern Israel, next to the city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanon border, on June 3, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (AFP)
Analysis Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?
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Fires burn as a result of rockets launched from Lebanon into northern Israel, next to the city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanon border, on June 3, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (AFP)
Analysis Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?
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Updated 06 June 2024
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Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?

Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?
  • In the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, the violence has expanded both in scope and intensity in recent weeks
  • Since October, at least 455 people have died in Lebanon, including 88 civilians, and at least 14 soldiers and 11 civilians in Israel

DUBAI: Tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia have continued to escalate since violence along the shared border first erupted in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that sparked the Gaza conflict.

In the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, the low-intensity conflict has expanded both in scope and intensity in recent weeks, leading to fears of an imminent full-scale war.

The violence since early October has killed at least 455 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but including 88 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, at least 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to the army.

INNUMBERS

• 4,900 Attacks launched by Israel against southern Lebanon since Oct. 7.

• 1,100 Attacks by Hezbollah against Israel and Israeli occupied territories in Lebanon. Source: ACLED

Israel has carried out nearly 4,900 attacks in southern Lebanon since Oct. 7, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project.

ACLED says Hezbollah has launched around 1,100 attacks on Israel as well as territories it has occupied in Lebanon over the same period.

Israeli strikes have made the entire border area in southern Lebanon a no-go zone, leading to the displacement of some 90,000 people, according to the UN migration agency, IOM. The same is true in northern Israel, where Hezbollah attacks have displaced 80,000 residents.




Israelis evacuated from northern areas near the Lebanese border due to ongoing cross-border tensions, rally near the northern Amiad Kibbutz, demanding to return home on May 23, 2024. (AFP)

Since the tit-for-tat attacks began, Lebanese officials and communities living along the border have been braced for a potential escalation into a conflict of a scale not seen since the 2006 war.

In recent months, influential Israeli officials have been calling on the government to mount a new military operation to push Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said on Tuesday that Israel is close to making a decision regarding Hezbollah’s daily attacks, according to the Times of Israel newspaper.




Israel's military Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi (C) walks among army officers during a situational assessment on the Lebanese border area on February 1, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israeli and Hezbollah forces. (Israeli Army handout via AFP) 

“We are approaching the point where a decision will have to be made, and the IDF is prepared and very ready for this decision,” Halevi said during an assessment with military officials and Fire Commissioner Eyal Caspi, at an army base in Kiryat Shmona.

“We have been attacking for eight months, and Hezbollah is paying a very, very high price. It has increased its strengths in recent days and we are prepared after a very good process of training … to move to an attack in the north.”

Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett tore into Benjamin Netanyahu’s government this week, claiming the north of Israel had been abandoned. “We must save the north,” he said in a statement. “The Galilee is going up in flames. The fire is spreading.




Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, shown in this photo taken on January 15, 2024, claims that the north of Israel had been abandoned by the Netanyahu government. (AFP/File photo)

“Beautiful and flourishing places have turned into heaps of rubble. Some residents who were evacuated are already planning their lives elsewhere. This is a grave strategic event and can in no way be normalized.”

Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, has said the militia’s campaign will continue as long as the war rages in Gaza.

In a speech last week, he said the attacks are “pressuring Israel,” and that while the battle concerns Palestine, it also concerns “the future of Lebanon and its water and oil resources.”

Should a full-scale war break out, Nasrallah said Hezbollah has “surprises” in store for Israel. Indeed, many region watchers expect any conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to be far more devastating and costly for both sides than the war in Gaza.




Hassan Nasrallah (2nd from R), leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, met with Iranian officials as Hezbollah supporters braced for a spike, right, in Israeli reprisals. (AFP)

Nasrallah’s comments followed statements by Yaov Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, who warned Lebanon would “pay the price” for Hezbollah’s actions, saying “if you will continue, we will accelerate.”

Although both sides have raised the rhetorical ante, Israeli analyst Ori Goldberg believes an all-out war with Hezbollah would be a disastrous overreach for Israel.

“Israel cannot afford a two-front war,” he told Arab News. “That is not sustainable. Hezbollah will be able to reach the Israeli heartland with its rockets. Israel is already imploding. More than 100,000 Israelis seem to have been permanently displaced.”

Nevertheless, if Prime Minister Netanyahu were to present a new war in Lebanon as the only viable option to allow displaced Israelis to return home, then “there is a good possibility that he can rally enough support,” said Goldberg.

“In a way, a war in Lebanon is something Israel’s professional warmongers have been pitching for years. Also, Israel is really hard up for solutions that would return people to the north. So popular support is there to be tapped.”




Map showing the border between Lebanon and Israel, where tit-for-tat bombardment between Israeli and Hezbollah forces had displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides. (AFP)

Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden for energy and investment, who brokered the maritime boundary agreement between Lebanon and Israel in late 2022, recently proposed a road map to peace between Israel and Hezbollah.

“I’m not expecting peace, everlasting peace, between Hezbollah and Israel,” Hochstein said in an interview with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in March.

“But if we can reach a set of understandings and ... take away some of the impetus for conflict and establish for the first time ever, a recognized border between the two, I think that will go a long way.”

Hezbollah, however, has conditioned any agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza, arguing any deal would require the consent of both parties.

Michael Young, author and senior editor at Carnegie Middle East, believes that despite its continued provocations, Hezbollah does not want a full-scale war with Israel.

“Everything they’ve shown, up till now, proves that they are avoiding one at all costs,” Young told Arab News. “Sure, they have escalated in response to Israeli escalations, but clearly they are not looking for one.

“If there is war, I don’t think there will be support from large segments of Lebanese society, and Hezbollah knows this. Even though there is anger with Israel, they will not support one.

“There is criticism from outside the Shiite community. The reason why Hezbollah is careful not to engage in a full-scale war is that it knows support from society will dissolve very quickly.”

Hezbollah on Tuesday said one of its members who lived in the Naqoura area was killed in an Israeli strike, and that its fighters launched “a slew of explosive-laden drones” at Israeli positions in the annexed Golan Heights in retaliation for the attack on the coastal town.




People pray during the funeral of the two brothers, Ali and Mohammed Qassem, who were killed by an Israeli strike in the Lebanese village of Houla near the border with Israel on June 2, 2024. (REUTERS)

It also claimed other attacks on Israeli troops and positions.

The Israeli army said in a statement that “fighter jets struck a Hezbollah terrorist” in Naqoura as well as hitting other sites.

Over the weekend, Hezbollah said its fighters had mounted a rocket attack against an Israeli army base in the border town of Kiryat Shmona, “scoring direct hits, igniting a fire and destroying parts of it,” according to militia statements.

The Israeli army confirmed the attack had taken place, with images of damaged infrastructure published by local media.

On Sunday night, the social media account of Green Southerners, a Lebanese civil society group dedicated to preserving national heritage, released videos purportedly showing massive fires around the border village of Al-Adisa.

The group claimed the fires were caused by Israel’s use of the incendiary weapon white phosphorus, and accused Israel of committing an act of “ecocide,” as the fires destroyed trees, farmland and animal habitats.




An Israeli army soldier artillery shells at a position near the border with Lebanon in the upper Galilee region of northern Israel . Lebanon has accused Israel of using controversial white phosphorus rounds, in attacks authorities say have harmed civilians and the environment. (AFP)

Twenty four hours later, massive fires were ignited by suspected Hezbollah attacks on the Israeli side of the border around Kiryat Shmona. Civilians were ordered to evacuate as firefighters battled the flames.

Israeli officials said more than 2,500 acres of land were affected by the fires, claiming it could take years for the land to recover.

On Monday, Hezbollah said it had fired Katyusha rockets toward Israeli bases in the occupied Golan Heights. For the first time since the outbreak of violence in October, the militia said it had launched a squadron of drones.

The Israeli military confirmed the attacks, stating it had intercepted one drone carrying explosives while two others fell in northern Israel.

For as long as Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza rages and Hezbollah continues to pose a threat to the towns and villages of northern Israel, the potential for escalation remains high




A Lebanese firefighter from the Islamic Sanitary Committee douses a fire that swept over fields hit by Israeli shelling in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 3, 2024. (AFP) 

The consequences, however, would be severe for all parties.

“I think Hezbollah has demonstrated it is committed to tit for tat,” said Israeli analyst Goldberg. “If Israel invades — and invade it must, if it wants a war — I think Hezbollah will likely retaliate in kind.”

And although Hezbollah has the means to cause significant damage to Israeli cities with its arsenal of Iranian-supplied weapons, it is crisis-wracked Lebanon that has the most to lose in the event of a full-scale war.

Indeed, the 2019 financial crisis and the failure to establish a new government has plunged much of the population into poverty, left public services and infrastructure in tatters, and even risked reopening old sectarian wounds.

“Should there be a war, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to put Lebanon back together as it was or even as it is today,” said Young of Carnegie Middle East.

“Already the sectarian social contract is falling apart. How do you do this after a very destructive war?”


 


US airstrike in Syria kills senior operative of Al-Qaeda affiliate

US airstrike in Syria kills senior operative of Al-Qaeda affiliate
Updated 31 January 2025
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US airstrike in Syria kills senior operative of Al-Qaeda affiliate

US airstrike in Syria kills senior operative of Al-Qaeda affiliate

The US military said it killed a senior operative of an Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group in an airstrike in northwest Syria on Thursday.
The airstrike, part of an ongoing effort to disrupt and degrade militant groups in the region, resulted in the death of Muhammad Salah Al-Za’bir of the Hurras Al-Din group, the US Central Command said in a statement.


Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?

Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?
Updated 31 January 2025
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Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?

Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?
  • U.N. data shows that one in five Palestinians in the West Bank has passed through Israeli jail
  • 23 prisoners serving life sentences were transferred to Egypt before further deportation

RAMALLAH: Israel released 110 Palestinian prisoners on Thursday in exchange for three Israeli hostages held in Gaza. Five Thai workers held captive in the enclave were also freed in a separate deal with Thailand. Thursday's prisoner-for-hostage swap marked the third round of exchanges as a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas entered its second week.
Most of the prisoners stepped off the Red Cross bus and onto the shoulders of jubilant supporters in the occupied West Bank, where U.N. data shows that one in five Palestinians has passed through Israeli jail and the release of prisoners is a source of joyous national celebration — a homecoming in which almost all Palestinians felt they could partake.
But 23 of them serving life sentences were transferred to Egypt before further deportation.
The prisoners released Thursday were all men, ranging in age from 15 to 69.
Here's a look at some prominent Palestinian prisoners released since the ceasefire deal went into effect on Jan. 19.
Zakaria Zubeidi
Zakaria Zubeidi is a prominent former militant leader and theater director whose dramatic jailbreak in 2021 thrilled Palestinians across the Middle East and stunned the Israeli security establishment.
Zubeidi once led the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade — an armed group affiliated with Fatah, the secular political party that controls the Palestinian Authority — that carried out deadly attacks against Israelis during the second intifada, or Palestinian uprising, between 2000 and 2005.
After the intifada in 2006, Zubeidi co-founded a theater in his hometown of Jenin refugee camp, a hotbed of Palestinian militancy, to promote what he described as cultural resistance to Israel. Even today, the Freedom Theater in Jenin refugee camp puts on everything from Shakespeare to stand-up comedy to plays written by residents.
In 2019, after Zubeidi had already served years in prison for attacks in the early 2000s, Israel arrested him again over his alleged involvement in shooting attacks that targeted buses of Israeli settlers but caused no injuries.
Zubeidi, who was released Thursday, had been awaiting trial in prison. He denies the charges, saying that he gave up militancy to focus on his political activism after the intifada.
In 2021, he and five other prisoners tunneled out of a maximum-security prison in northern Israel, an escape that helped solidify Zubeidi’s image among Palestinians as a folk hero. All six were recaptured days later.
In a room packed with family members and supporters smiling, laughing, and jostling for a view of him, Zubeidi shouted to be heard over the frenzy and expressed thanks for God and his loved ones. He searched for words as reporters thrust microphones toward him, offering Islamic prayers to those wounded and killed in Gaza.
Rather than set off to Jenin camp after being freed, he stayed in Ramallah on Thursday night. Israel launched an extensive military raid earlier this month in the Jenin camp that so far has killed at least 18 Palestinians and sent scores of families fleeing.
“May God grant victory to our brothers in the Jenin camp,” Zubeidi said. His son, Mohammed, was killed in an Israeli drone strike last September in the camp.
Palestinian medics, who have raised concerns about the conditions of detainees emerging from Israeli detention, said Zubeidi looked weak and malnourished. Dr. Mai Al-Kaileh, who examined him, said his ribs had been shattered and he had lost a startling amount of weight.
“His condition is very difficult,” she said. “It's not good.”

A crowd welcomes Palestinians formerly jailed by Israel as they arrive in a Red Cross convoy to Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, Jan. 30 (AFP)

Mohammed Abu Warda
A Hamas militant during the second intifada, Abu Warda helped organize a series of suicide bombings that killed over 40 people and wounded more than a hundred others. Israel arrested him in 2002, and sentenced him to 48 terms of lifetime imprisonment, among the longest sentences it ever issued.
As a young student, Abu Warda joined Hamas at the start of the intifada following Israel's killing of Yahya Ayyash, the militant group's leading bomb maker, in 1996.
Palestinian authorities said at the time that Warda had helped to recruit suicide bombers — including his cousin, his cousin’s neighbor and a classmate at the Ramallah Teachers College — whose attacks targeting crowded civilian areas in Israeli cities killed scores of people in the early 2000s.
Warda was released on Thursday.

Mohammed Aradeh, 42
An activist in Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Aradeh, was sentenced to life in prison for a range of offenses going back to the second intifada. Some of the charges, according to the Israeli Prison Service, included planting an explosive device and attempting murder.
He was credited with plotting the extraordinary prison escape in 2021, when he and five other detainees, including Zubeidi, used spoons to tunnel out one of Israel’s most secure prisons. They remained at large for days before being caught.
From an impoverished and politically active family in Jenin, in the northern occupied West Bank, Aradeh has three brothers and a sister who have all spent years in Israeli prisons.
He was welcomed as a sort of cult hero in Ramallah on Saturday as family, friends and fans swarmed him, some chanting “The freedom tunnel!” in reference to his jailbreak. When asked how he felt, Aradeh was breathless.
Over and over he muttered, “Thank God, thank God.”
Mohammed Odeh, 52, Wael Qassim, 54, and Wissam Abbasi, 48
All three men hail from the neighborhood of Silwan, in east Jerusalem, and rose within the ranks of Hamas. Held responsible for a string of deadly attacks during the second intifada, the men were sentenced to multiple life sentences in 2002.
They were accused of plotting a suicide bombing at a crowded pool hall near Tel Aviv in 2002 that killed 15 people. Later that year, they were found to have orchestrated a bombing at Hebrew University that killed nine people, including five American students. Israel had described Odeh, who was working as a painter at the university at the time, as the kingpin in the attack.
All three were transferred to Egypt last Saturday. Their families live in Jerusalem and said they will join them in exile.
The Abu Hamid brothers
Three brothers from the prominent Abu Hamid family of the Al-Amari refugee camp in Ramallah — Nasser, 51, Mohammad, 44, and Sharif, 48 — were also deported to Egypt last Saturday. They had been sentenced to life in prison over deadly militant attacks against Israelis in 2002.
Their brother, a different Nasser Abu Hamid, was one of the founders of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade. He was also sentenced to life in prison for several deadly attacks. His 2022 death from lung cancer behind bars unleashed a wave of angry protests across the West Bank as Palestinian officials accused Israel of medical neglect.
The family has a long arc of Palestinian militancy. The mother, Latifa Abu Hamid, 72, now has three sons exiled, one still imprisoned, one who died in prison and one who was killed by Israeli forces. Their family house has been demolished at least three times by Israel, which defends such punitive home demolitions as a deterrent against future attacks.
Mohammad al-Tous, 67
Al-Tous had held the title of longest continuous Israeli imprisonment until his release last Saturday, Palestinian authorities said.
First arrested in 1985 while fighting Israeli forces along the Jordanian border, the activist in the Fatah party spent a total of 39 years behind bars. Originally from the West Bank city of Bethlehem, he was among the prisoners exiled.


Syrian leader Sharaa pledges to form inclusive government

Syria’s President Ahmed Al-Sharaa delivers a speech at the Presidential Palace in Damascus, Syria. (Reuters)
Syria’s President Ahmed Al-Sharaa delivers a speech at the Presidential Palace in Damascus, Syria. (Reuters)
Updated 30 January 2025
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Syrian leader Sharaa pledges to form inclusive government

Syria’s President Ahmed Al-Sharaa delivers a speech at the Presidential Palace in Damascus, Syria. (Reuters)
  • Al-Sharaa said he would form a small legislative body to fill parliamentary void until new elections were held, after the Syrian parliament was dissolved on Wednesday

DAMASCUS: Syria’s newly appointed president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, said on Thursday he will form an inclusive transitional government representing diverse communities that will build institutions and run the country until it can hold free and fair elections.
Sharaa addressed the nation in his first speech since being appointed president for the transitional period on Wednesday by armed factions that ousted former Syrian President Bashar Assad in a lightning offensive last year.
The armed group that led the offensive, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, has since set up an interim government that has welcomed a steady stream of senior Western and Arab diplomatic delegations keen to help stabilize the country after 13 years of civil war.
Sharaa in his speech said he would form a small legislative body to fill the parliamentary void until new elections were held, after the Syrian parliament was dissolved on Wednesday.
He said he would also in the coming days announce the formation of a committee that would prepare to hold a national dialogue conference that would be a platform for Syrians to discuss the future political program of the nation.
That would be followed by a “constitutional declaration,” he said, in an apparent reference to the process of drafting a new Syrian constitution.
Sharaa has previously said the process of drafting a new constitution and holding elections may take up to four years. 


Sudanese teenager raps of loss and hope amid war

Sudanese teenager raps of loss and hope amid war
Updated 30 January 2025
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Sudanese teenager raps of loss and hope amid war

Sudanese teenager raps of loss and hope amid war

PORT SUDAN: In a makeshift shelter carved out of a schoolyard in eastern Sudan, 14-year-old Hanim Mohammed uses her rap music to comfort families displaced by the country’s ongoing war.

For a few fleeting moments, the scars of 21 months of war seem to fade when families huddle together to hear Mohammed’s nostalgic rap lyrics about life before the war.

“When I play rap songs, everyone sings with me,” said Mohammed.

“This makes me so happy,” she said, lighting up with a radiant and captivating smile.

At a UN-sponsored space in the shelter, the young rapper, Nana, commanded the stage with electrifying energy.

Laughter and claps echoed through the air as women and children swayed and twirled to the beat — defying a war that has gripped the country since April 2023.

The conflict in Sudan has claimed the lives of tens of thousands, uprooted over 12 million people, and pushed Sudanese to the brink of famine.

The war, which has pitted army chief Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan against his erstwhile ally Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, triggered the “biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded,” according to the International Rescue Committee.

Nana’s fans say her songs resonate deeply.

“The joy she brings is indescribable,” said Najwa Abdel Rahim, who attends Mohammed’s performances.

“I feel comfort and excitement when I listen to her music,” said Deir Fathi, another jubilant fan.

When the war erupted, Mohammed fled her hometown of Omdurman, the twin city of the capital Khartoum, with her family.

Now residing in a secondary school in Port Sudan, she uses rap to articulate her grief and preserve cherished memories of home, she said.

Her recollections of a once-vibrant city now fuel her creative expression, particularly in her poignant track “The Omdurman Tragedy.”

“You sit silently, and a fire breaks out. What do you do? Your brain itself is confused,” goes the song.

Mohammed’s love for rap took root for years, but the outbreak of war brought it home, pushing her to start writing her lyrics, she said. 

She has so far written nine songs.

“Most of the songs I composed were for the place I love the most and where I grew up — Omdurman,” she said.

“When the war erupted, this gave an even greater drive,” she added.

The teen rapper and her family share cramped quarters with dozens of displaced families at the shelter. Basic necessities are a daily struggle.

“The most difficult thing I faced was the water,” she said.

“Sometimes I found it salty, and other times it was bitter,” she added.

Conflict-ravaged Sudan, despite its many water sources, including the mighty Nile River, has long been parched and grappling with a water crisis.

Even before the war, a quarter of the population had to walk over 50 minutes to fetch water, according to the United Nations.

Now, from the arid western deserts of Darfur, through the lush Nile Valley, and to the shores of the Red Sea, a water crisis has hit 48 million war-weary Sudanese.

Yet Mohammed refuses to let such hardships keep her down.

Her music has become a lifeline for herself and the people who gather to watch her perform.

And Mohammed is not stopping there. In a small room at the shelter, she sat bent over her books — hoping to fulfill her dreams of becoming both a surgeon and a celebrated rapper.

But above all, she has one overriding wish: “The biggest wish I hope for is for the war to stop.”


EU to hold talks with Israel, Palestinians

EU to hold talks with Israel, Palestinians
Updated 30 January 2025
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EU to hold talks with Israel, Palestinians

EU to hold talks with Israel, Palestinians

BRUSSELS: The EU will hold separate talks with Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the coming weeks, the European Commission said on Thursday, as a ceasefire in Gaza continued to hold.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar is expected to meet with his counterparts from the EU’s 27 nations and the bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, in Brussels on Feb. 24, the commission said.

“We will discuss the full range of issues with Israel, including the war in Gaza, regional issues, global issues, and bilateral EU-Israel relations,” said commission spokesman Anouar El-Anouni.

The gathering will take place on the sidelines of the EU’s foreign affairs council.

Similarly, Kallas will co-chair with Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa “the first ever EU Palestinian high-level dialogue” on the margins of the following foreign affairs council — a meeting of EU top diplomats — on March 17.

“This will be an opportunity to discuss the EU support for the Palestinians and the full range of regional and bilateral issues,” El-Anouni said.

Mustafa represents the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank.

The announcement came as Israel and the Palestinians took part in the third prisoner-hostage exchange under the Gaza ceasefire.

EU countries, which include staunch allies of Israel as well as firm supporters of the Palestinians, have struggled for a unified position in the Gaza war.

“The EU is fully committed to a just, comprehensive, and lasting peace based on the two-state solution, where Israel and Palestine live side-by-side in peace and security,” the commission said.