Why Venezuela’s presidential election should matter to the rest of the world

Why Venezuela’s presidential election should matter to the rest of the world
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Venezuelan President and presidential candidate Nicolas Maduro greets supporters at his campaign closing rally in Caracas on July 25, 2024, ahead of Sunday's presidential election. (AFP)
Why Venezuela’s presidential election should matter to the rest of the world
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Venezuelan opposition star Maria Corina Machado raises the hand of opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia (L) in a show of support during a press conference in Caracas on July 25, 2024, ahead of Sunday's presidential election. (AFP)
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Updated 27 July 2024
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Why Venezuela’s presidential election should matter to the rest of the world

Why Venezuela’s presidential election should matter to the rest of the world
  • President Nicolas Maduro is being challenged by former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, who represents the resurgent opposition, and eight other candidates
  • Maduro’s popularity has dwindled due to an economic crisis caused by a drop in oil prices, corruption and government mismanagement

CARACAS, Venezuela: The future of Venezuela is on the line. Voters will decide Sunday whether to reelect President Nicolas Maduro, whose 11 years in office have been beset by crisis, or allow the opposition a chance to deliver on a promise to undo the ruling party’s policies that caused economic collapse and forced millions to emigrate.
Historically fractured opposition parties have coalesced behind a single candidate, giving the United Socialist Party of Venezuela its most serious electoral challenge in a presidential election in decades.
Maduro is being challenged by former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, who represents the resurgent opposition, and eight other candidates. Supporters of Maduro and Gonzalez marked the end of the official campaign season Thursday with massive demonstrations in the capital, Caracas.




Venezuelan opposition star Maria Corina Machado raises the hand of opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia (L) in a show of support during a press conference in Caracas on July 25, 2024, ahead of Sunday's presidential election. (AFP)

Here are some reasons why the election matters to the world:
Migration impact

The election will impact migration flows regardless of the winner.
The instability in Venezuela for the past decade has pushed more than 7.7 million people to migrate, which the UN’s refugee agency describes as the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history. Most Venezuelan migrants have settled in Latin America and the Caribbean, but they are increasingly setting their sights on the US.
A nationwide poll conducted in April by the Venezuela-based research firm Delphos indicated that about a quarter of the people in Venezuela were thinking about emigrating if Maduro wins again. Of those, about 47 percent said a win by the opposition would make them stay, but roughly the same amount indicated that an improved economy would keep them in their home country. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The main opposition leader is not on the ballot

The most talked-about name in the race is not on the ballot: María Corina Machado. The former lawmaker emerged as an opposition star in 2023, filling the void left when a previous generation of opposition leaders fled into exile. Her principled attacks on government corruption and mismanagement rallied millions of Venezuelans to vote for her in the opposition’s October primary.




Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters as she campaigns in support of former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 25, 2024. (REUTERS)

But Maduro’s government declared the primary illegal and opened criminal investigations against some of its organizers. Since then, it has issued warrants for several of Machado’s supporters and arrested some members of her staff, and the country’s top court affirmed a decision to keep her off the ballot.
Yet, she kept on campaigning, holding rallies nationwide and turning the ban on her candidacy into a symbol of the loss of rights and humiliations that many voters have felt for over a decade.
She has thrown her support behind Edmundo González Urrutia, a former ambassador who has never held public office, helping a fractious opposition unify.
They are campaigning together on the promise of economic reform that will lure back the millions of people who have migrated since Maduro became president in 2013.
González began his diplomatic career as an aide to Venezuela’s ambassador in the US in the late 1970s. He was posted to Belgium and El Salvador, and served as Caracas’ ambassador to Algeria. His last post was as ambassador to Argentina during Hugo Chávez’s presidency, which began in 1999.
Why is the current president struggling?
Maduro’s popularity has dwindled due to an economic crisis caused by a drop in oil prices, corruption and government mismanagement.
Maduro can still bank on a cadre of die-hard believers, known as Chavistas, including millions of public employees and others whose businesses or employment depend on the state. But the ability of his party to use access to social programs to make people vote has diminished as the economy has frayed.
He is the heir to Hugo Chávez, a popular socialist who expanded Venezuela’s welfare state while locking horns with the United States.
Sick with cancer, Chávez handpicked Maduro to act as interim president upon his death. He took on the role in March 2013, and the following month, he narrowly won the presidential election triggered by his mentor’s death.
Maduro was reelected in 2018, in a contest that was widely considered a sham. His government banned Venezuela’s most popular opposition parties and politicians from participating and, lacking a level playing field, the opposition urged voters to boycott the election.
That authoritarian tilt was part of the rationale the US used to impose economic sanctions that crippled the country’s crucial oil industry.
Mismanaged oil industry
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude reserves, but its production declined over several years, in part because of government mismanagement and widespread corruption in the state-owned oil company.
In April, Venezuela’s government announced the arrest of Tareck El Aissami, the once-powerful oil minister and a Maduro ally, over an alleged scheme through which hundreds of millions of dollars in oil proceeds seemingly disappeared.
That same month, the US government reimposed sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector, after Maduro and his allies used the ruling party’s total control over Venezuela’s institutions to undermine an agreement to allow free elections. Among those actions, they blocked Machado from registering as a presidential candidate and arrested and persecuted members of her team.
The sanctions make it illegal for US companies to do business with state-run Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., better known as PDVSA, without prior authorization from the US Treasury Department. The outcome of the election could decide whether those sanctions remain in place.
An uneven playing field
A more free and fair presidential election seemed like a possibility last year, when Maduro’s government agreed to work with the US-backed Unitary Platform coalition to improve electoral conditions in October 2023. An accord on election conditions earned Maduro’s government broad relief from the US economic sanctions on its state-run oil, gas and mining sectors.
But days later, authorities branded the opposition’s primary illegal and began issuing warrants and arresting human rights defenders, journalists and opposition members.
A UN-backed panel investigating human rights violations in Venezuela has reported that the government has increased repression of critics and opponents ahead of the election, subjecting targets to detention, surveillance, threats, defamatory campaigns and arbitrary criminal proceedings.
The government has also used its control of media outlets, the country’s fuel supply, electric network and other infrastructure to limit the reach of the Machado-González campaign.
The mounting actions taken against the opposition prompted the Biden administration earlier this year to end the sanctions relief it granted in October.
 


NATO allies must pay ‘fair share’ before adding members: US envoy

NATO allies must pay ‘fair share’ before adding members: US envoy
Updated 5 sec ago
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NATO allies must pay ‘fair share’ before adding members: US envoy

NATO allies must pay ‘fair share’ before adding members: US envoy
  • NATO allies must pay their “fair share” on defense before considering enlarging the alliance, a US presidential envoy said Thursday, as NATO’s chief said members will need to ramp up defense spending
DAVOS: NATO allies must pay their “fair share” on defense before considering enlarging the alliance, a US presidential envoy said Thursday, as NATO’s chief said members will need to ramp up defense spending.
“You cannot ask the American people to expand the umbrella of NATO when the current members aren’t paying their fair share, and that includes the Dutch who need to step up,” US envoy Richard Grenell said by video link at an event on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in response to NATO chief Mark Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister.
“We have collectively to move up and we will decide on the exact number later this year, but it will be considerably more than two (percent),” Rutte said, referring to the alliance’s target of defense spending of two percent of GDP.

Balkan air pollution crisis threatens public health, EU membership goals

Balkan air pollution crisis threatens public health, EU membership goals
Updated 28 min 36 sec ago
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Balkan air pollution crisis threatens public health, EU membership goals

Balkan air pollution crisis threatens public health, EU membership goals
  • Old coal plants, cars keep Balkan pollution high
  • Economic hardship hinders progress toward reducing emissions

OBILIC: For 30 years, Shemsi Gara operated a giant digger in a Kosovo coal mine, churning up toxic dust that covered his face and got into his airways. Home life wasn’t much better: the power plants that the mine supplies constantly spew fumes over his village.
Gara died on Sunday aged 55 after three years of treatment failed to contain his lung cancer. In his final days, unable to walk, he lay on a couch at home, gaunt and in pain, as a machine pumped oxygen into his dying body.
“I kept telling him I wanted to help, but I couldn’t,” said his wife Xhejlane, who mourned in her living room with friends on Wednesday. “He would say ‘Only God knows the pain I have’.”
As much of the world moves to reduce the use of fossil fuels, pollution in Western Balkan countries remains stubbornly high due to household heating, outdated coal plants, old cars, and a lack of money to tackle the problem.
Relatively small cities such as Serbia’s capital Belgrade and Bosnia’s capital Sarajevo have frequently topped daily global pollution charts, according to websites that track air quality worldwide.
This has costly health impacts, and could also jeopardize such countries’ prospects of joining the European Union, which has stricter emissions standards.
“There are no resources in the region for the reduction of air pollution,” said Mirko Popovic, a director with the Renewables and Environmental Regulatory Institute think-tank in Belgrade.
In the EU, net greenhouse gas emissions have dropped by about 40 percent since 1990, driven by the embrace of renewable energy, a European Commission report said in November.
Western Balkan nations have pledged to reduce carbon emissions but economic hardship has slowed progress.
Kosovo, one of Europe’s poorest countries, generates more than 90 percent of its power from coal. The World Bank estimates that a transition to a coal-free economy will cost 4.5 billion euros.

SMOG
The impact of pollution is clear across the region, especially in winter.
Smog has cloaked Belgrade this week, while Sarajevo sits in a valley that acts as a pollution trap. The Bosnian capital’s air quality was classed as “hazardous” on Tuesday, the worst in the world, according to IQAir, which tracks pollution levels.
In North Macedonia’s capital Skopje, mask-wearing locals often lose sight of nearby snow-capped mountains for days.
The rate of deaths attributable to ambient pollution is relatively high — 114 per 100,000 people in Bosnia and around 100 in Serbia and Montenegro, World Health Organization data show, compared with just 45 in Germany and 29 in France.
Gara was buried on Monday in a cemetery in Obilic, outside Kosovo’s capital Pristina. From the graveside, mourners could hear the chug of a nearby conveyor belt transporting coal from the mine to the power plants.
Gara’s doctor, Haki Jashari, blamed Gara’s cancer on his years at the coal mine, and on the polluting power plants.
Cancer rates more than doubled in Obilic over the last two years, Jashari said — the result, he added, of a generation of exposure to pollutants. He expects it will get worse.
Kosovo’s energy ministry told Reuters it was committed to reducing emissions and was investing in renewable energy projects and upgrading existing plants.
Jashari only wishes more could have been done sooner.
“They would have shut the plants down if we were part of the EU. It is unacceptable.”


India says 'open' to return of undocumented immigrants in US

India says 'open' to return of undocumented immigrants in US
Updated 23 January 2025
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India says 'open' to return of undocumented immigrants in US

India says 'open' to return of undocumented immigrants in US
  • India was working with the Trump administration on the deportation of around 18,000 Indians

Washington: India is prepared to take back its citizens residing illegally in the United States, foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has said after meeting the top diplomat of President Donald Trump’s new administration.
Jaishankar’s remarks came after a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Tuesday a day after Trump’s inauguration.
Trump issued a raft of executive orders this week that aim to clamp down on illegal immigration and expedite his goal of deporting millions of immigrants.
Jaishankar said New Delhi was open to taking back undocumented Indians and was in the process of verifying those in the United States who could be deported to India.
“We want Indian talent and Indian skills to have the maximum opportunity at the global level. At the same time, we are also very firmly opposed to illegal mobility and illegal migration,” Jaishankar told a group of Indian reporters in Washington on Wednesday.
“So, with every country, and the US is no exception, we have always taken the view that if any of our citizens are here illegally, and if we are sure that they are our citizens, we have always been open to their legitimate return to India.”
Jaishankar was responding to a query on news reports that India was working with the Trump administration on the deportation of around 18,000 Indians who are either undocumented, or have overstayed their visas.
Rubio had “emphasized the Trump administration’s desire to work with India to advance economic ties and address concerns related to irregular migration,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a readout after Tuesday’s meeting.
India is the world’s fifth-largest economy and enjoys world-beating GDP growth, but hundreds of thousands of its citizens still leave the country each year seeking better opportunities abroad.
While its diaspora spans the globe, the United States remains the destination of choice.
The most recent US census showed its Indian-origin population had grown by 50 percent to 4.8 million in the decade to 2020, while more than a third of the nearly 1.3 million Indian students studying abroad in 2022 were in the United States.


As Trump declares ‘Gulf of America,’ US enters name wars

As Trump declares ‘Gulf of America,’ US enters name wars
Updated 23 January 2025
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As Trump declares ‘Gulf of America,’ US enters name wars

As Trump declares ‘Gulf of America,’ US enters name wars
  • “In claiming the right to force others to use the name of his choosing, Trump is asserting a sort of sovereignty over an international body of water,” Gerry Kearns, a professor of geography at Maynooth University in Ireland

WASHINGTON: For years, as disputes over names on the map riled up nationalist passions in several parts of the world, US policymakers have watched warily, trying to stay out or to quietly encourage peace.
Suddenly, the United States has gone from a reluctant arbiter to a nomenclature belligerent, as President Donald Trump declared that the Gulf of Mexico will henceforth be called the “Gulf of America.”
In an executive order signed hours after he returned to the White House, Trump called the water body an “indelible part of America” critical to US oil production and fishing and “a favorite destination for American tourism and recreation activities.”
The term Gulf of America was soon used by the US Coast Guard in a press release on enforcing Trump’s new crackdown on migrants, as well as Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, when discussing a winter storm.
Deep-sea ecologist Andrew Thaler said Trump’s declaration was “very silly” and would likely be ignored by maritime professionals.
A president has the authority to rename sites within the United States — as Trump also did.
“The Gulf of Mexico, however, is a body of water that borders several countries and includes pockets of high seas,” said Thaler, founder of Blackbeard Biologic Science and Environmental Advisers.
“There really isn’t any precedent for a US president renaming international geologic and oceanographic features. Any attempt to rename the entire Gulf of Mexico would be entirely symbolic,” he said.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has cheekily suggested calling the United States “Mexican America,” pointing to a map from well before Washington seized one-third of her country in 1848.
“For us it is still the Gulf of Mexico and for the entire world it is still the Gulf of Mexico,” she said Tuesday.
The International Hydrographic Organization, set up a century ago, works to survey the world’s seas and oceans and is the closest to an authority on harmonizing names for international waters.
The United Nations also has an expert group on geographical names, which opens its next meeting on April 28.
Martin H. Levinson, president emeritus of the Institute of General Semantics, said it was unknown how much political capital Trump would invest in seeking name recognition by other countries.
“Does he really want to strong-arm them for something as minor as this?” Levinson asked.
“I think the political benefit is to the domestic audience that he’s playing to — saying we’re patriotic, this is our country, we’re not going to let the name be subsumed by other countries,” he said.
He doubted that other countries would change the name but said it was possible Google Earth — a more ready reference to laypeople — could list an alternative name, as it has in other disputes.

Among the most heated disputes, South Korea has long resented calling the body of water to its east the Sea of Japan and has advocated for it to be called the East Sea.
The United States, an ally of both countries, has kept Sea of Japan but Korean-Americans have pushed at the local level for school textbooks to say East Sea.
In the Middle East, Trump in his last term angered Iranians by publicly using the term Arabian Gulf for the oil-rich water body historically known as the Arabian Gulf but which Arab nationalists have sought to rename.
The United States has also advocated maintaining a 2018 deal where Greece agreed for its northern neighbor to change its name to North Macedonia from Macedonia, but Athens ulitmately rejected due to historical associations with Alexander the Great.
Gerry Kearns, a professor of geography at Maynooth University in Ireland, said that Trump’s move was part of the “geopolitics of spectacle” but also showed his ideological bent.
With Trump also threatening to take the Panama Canal and Greenland, Trump is seeking to project a new type of Monroe Doctrine, the 1823 declaration by the United States that it would dominate the Western Hemisphere, Kearns said.
“Names work because they are shared; we know we are talking about the same thing,” he wrote in an essay.
“In claiming the right to force others to use the name of his choosing, Trump is asserting a sort of sovereignty over an international body of water.”
 


Trumps’ top diplomat Rubio affirms ‘ironclad’ US commitment to Philippines amid China threat

Trumps’ top diplomat Rubio affirms ‘ironclad’ US commitment to Philippines amid China threat
Updated 23 January 2025
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Trumps’ top diplomat Rubio affirms ‘ironclad’ US commitment to Philippines amid China threat

Trumps’ top diplomat Rubio affirms ‘ironclad’ US commitment to Philippines amid China threat
  • Marco Rubio discussed China's “dangerous and destabilizing actions in the South China Sea” in a call with his Philippine counterpart, says State Department spokeswoman

WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday the United States under President Donald Trump remained committed to the Philippines’ defense, as tensions simmer with Beijing in the South China Sea.
In a call with his Philippine counterpart Enrique Manalo, Rubio “underscored the United States’ ironclad commitments to the Philippines under our Mutual Defense Treaty,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said.

The Philippines has been embroiled in wrangles at sea with China in the past two years and the two countries have faced off regularly around disputed features in the South China Sea that fall inside Manila’s exclusive economic zone.

China claims most of the strategic waterway despite an international tribunal ruling that its claim lacked any legal basis.

Rubio’s call followed his hosting of counterparts from Australia, India and Japan in the China-focused “Quad” forum on Tuesday, the day after President Donald Trump returned to the White House. The four recommitted to working together.
Quad members and the Philippines share concerns about China’s growing power and analysts said Tuesday’s meeting was designed to signal continuity in the Indo-Pacific and that countering Beijing will be a top priority for Trump.
In the call with Manalo, Rubio “underscored the United States’ ironclad commitments to the Philippines” under their Mutual Defense Treaty and discussed ways to advance security cooperation, expand economic ties and deepen regional cooperation, the statement said.
Just ahead of Trump’s swearing-in, the Philippines and the United States carried out their fifth set of joint maritime exercises in the South China Sea since launching the joint activities in 2023.
Security engagements between the allies have soared under Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has pivoted closer to Washington and allowed the expansion of military bases that American forces can access, including facilities facing the Chinese-claimed but democratically-governed island of Taiwan.
Visiting the Philippines last week, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya said a trilateral initiative to boost cooperation launched by Japan, the US and the Philippines at a summit last year would be strengthened when the new US administration took over in Washington.