What will become of the Lebanese displaced by intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict?

Analysis What will become of the Lebanese displaced by intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict?
Highways from the south were clogged with traffic as civilians tried to escape Israel’s bombardment of Hezbollah. (AFP)
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Updated 25 September 2024
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What will become of the Lebanese displaced by intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict?

What will become of the Lebanese displaced by intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict?
  • Israeli forces have struck multiple Hezbollah targets in recent days, forcing civilians in the south to flee northward
  • Hobbled by political deadlock and economic meltdown, Lebanon’s government is in no position to mount a significant relief effort

LONDON: Nearly half a million Lebanese civilians have been displaced from their homes in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley since Israel intensified its air campaign against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia this week, raising the prospect of a major humanitarian emergency.

In a country already grappling with a profound economic crisis, the exodus of thousands of civilians from towns and villages bordering Israel is stretching Lebanon’s limited resources and further destabilizing its fragile society.

The most pressing question on the minds of those fleeing, however, is whether their displacement will be temporary or permanent.




Areas such as Tyre, Sidon and Nabatiyeh have experienced a mass exodus. (AFP)

Indeed, villages closest to the border have been the most heavily damaged, with entire areas reduced to rubble. Israeli forces have been accused of creating a “dead zone” as a buffer between the two countries.

“We don’t think this is going to last only for a short duration,” Tania Baban, Lebanon country director of the US-based charity MedGlobal, told Arab News. “Some people may not be able to go home if their home is no longer standing.”

Since Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel in solidarity with its Hamas allies following the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, southern Lebanon has been transformed into a battleground, with Israel mounting retaliatory strikes.

The region, a stronghold for Hezbollah, has faced near daily bombardment, leaving towns and villages in ruins and devastating forests and farmland.

Lebanon’s foreign minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, has said that about 500,000 Lebanese have been displaced since Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah ramped up, with more than 110,000 fleeing prior to the recent escalation.

Areas such as Tyre, Sidon and Nabatiyeh have experienced a mass exodus. Some 70 percent of Tyre’s population has evacuated, according to the city’s mayor, Hassan Dbouk. “People could not tolerate it anymore,” he told the Washington Post.

Baban believes the official number of displaced is an underestimate. “We started distributing some much-needed basic items to the shelters on Tuesday, such as mattresses, towels, pillows, water and personal hygiene kits,” she said.

“We went to several schools to get their information and do our assessment, and there were displaced people flooding in, and this is only in Beirut.

“They’re mostly from the south. I’m sure Bekaa as well, but we don’t have those types of details yet, because people are still flooding in.”




The exodus of thousands of civilians from towns and villages bordering Israel is stretching Lebanon’s limited resources. (AFP)

Safa Kosaibani, 21, who fled from Nabatiyeh to the coastal city of Sidon with her daughters and sisters-in-law, said that she heard Israel was telling civilians to leave southern Lebanon, but did not trust the warnings.

“We thought it was just psychological warfare,” she told the Washington Post. “That they were just trying to push us to leave our land, because we pushed them away from their land in the north. They want to do the same to us.”

An estimated 60,000 or so Israelis are internally displaced from the other side. On Sept. 17, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu updated his government’s war goals to include returning those people home.

Nour Hamad, a 22-year-old student in the Lebanese city of Baalbek, described living “in a state of terror” all week. “We spent four or five days without sleep, not knowing if we will wake up in the morning,” she told the AFP news agency.

“The sound of the bombardment is very frightening, everyone’s afraid. The children are afraid, and the grown-ups are afraid too.”




Israeli forces have struck multiple targets across Lebanon, leading to the death of almost 600 people, many of them civilians. (Reuters)

As civilians tried to escape the conflict zones this week, they found highways from the south clogged with traffic. Roads to safety were so busy that many spent 12 hours or more on a journey that previously took just one or two.

While some have found refuge with friends or relatives, the sheer volume of displaced people is overwhelming Lebanon’s capacity to provide accommodation, with schools, community centers and unfinished buildings quickly being converted into temporary shelters.

Lebanon’s government is in no position to mount a significant relief effort. In recent years, it has been paralyzed by political deadlock and financial collapse, with its currency losing more than 90 percent of its value.

“Lebanon has been dealing with multiple crises and has still not recovered from the devastating of the Aug. 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion, as well as the economic crisis that engulfed the country starting in late 2019,” Hovig Atamian, director of programs at CARE International in Lebanon, told Arab News.




About 500,000 Lebanese have been displaced since Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah ramped up, with more than 110,000 fleeing prior to the recent escalation. (Reuters)

“Humanitarian organizations have been preparing for the worst case scenario of a very significant escalation for months now, but the reality on the ground, including access constraints due to the security risks will always remain a challenge.

“We call on the parties to the conflict to uphold the provisions of international humanitarian law, including taking measures to avoid and minimize loss of civilian life, injury to civilians and damage to civilian objects as well as protecting all humanitarian personnel and operations.”

With international funding already stretched due to crises in Gaza, Ukraine and other conflict zones, there is a fear that Lebanon could be overlooked in terms of humanitarian assistance.

Imran Riza, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon, has allocated a $24 million emergency aid package from the Lebanon Humanitarian Fund to address the urgent needs of those impacted by the hostilities. Those needs are now likely to grow rapidly, however.

Lebanon is “grappling with multiple crises, which have overwhelmed the country’s capacity to cope,” Riza said in a statement.

“As the escalation of hostilities in south Lebanon drags on longer than we had hoped, it has led to further displacement and deepened the already critical needs.”




The Israel Defense Forces said on Tuesday that it had hit 1,500 “terrorist infrastructure targets in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanese territory.” (AFP)

Charities such as MedGlobal are now mobilizing to deliver essential items to the temporary shelters.

“We are going to distribute food that is pre-prepared, because they don’t have cooking supplies, but also mattresses, winterization kits, blankets — because winter is on the doorstep, so they need to be prepared,” Baban said.

“The people who are coming into the shelters, a lot of them are elderly people who left their medications, who left their money, who need to get their medicine for their chronic illnesses as well.

“We’re talking about diabetes, heart problems, hypertension, and some patients are on dialysis. Some patients are maybe on chemotherapy, and we haven’t even begun to speak about the risk of communicable diseases.

“These are going to be overcrowded school turned shelters and winters coming, and we haven’t even discussed flu, COVID-19 and all of that. So it’s a very grim situation.”




Synchronized Israeli attacks last week on Hezbollah’s communication devices, which killed 39 people and injured more than 3,000. (AP)

Israeli forces have struck multiple targets across Lebanon, leading to the death of almost 600 people, many of them civilians. The strikes followed a synchronized attack last week on Hezbollah’s communication devices, which killed 39 people and injured more than 3,000.

The Israel Defense Forces said on Tuesday that it had hit 1,500 “terrorist infrastructure targets in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanese territory.”

“Hezbollah today is not the same Hezbollah we knew a week ago,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, claiming that the group “has suffered a sequence of blows to its command and control, its fighters, and the means to fight.”

INNUMBERS

• 500,000 People displaced across Lebanon. • 600 Fatalities, including 50 children and 94 women.

• 1,700 People injured by strikes across Lebanon.

• 60,000 Israelis evacuated from border areas since October.

The violence escalated on Wednesday when Hezbollah said it had launched a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. Although Israel intercepted the missile, it represents an unprecedented move and a dangerous new phase in the conflict.

Early on Wednesday, Hezbollah confirmed that the commander of its missile unit, Ibrahim Muhammad Qubaisi, had been killed, hours after the Israeli military said that he had been “eliminated” in an airstrike on Ghobeiri in Beirut’s southern suburbs.




An estimated 60,000 or so Israelis are internally displaced from the other side. (AFP)

The escalation comes nearly a year after Hezbollah began launching attacks shortly after the Oct. 7 attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on southern Israel that killed about 1,200 people and saw 240 taken hostage.

Israel responded by invading the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, leading to a conflict that has claimed more than 41,000 lives, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict have so far failed. US President Joe Biden, addressing the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, warned of the dangers of full-scale war in Lebanon, urging for restraint from all sides.




Since Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel in solidarity with its Hamas allies following the Oct. 7 attack on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, southern Lebanon has been transformed into a battleground, with Israel mounting retaliatory strikes. (Reuters)

“Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” Biden said. “Even though the situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible.”

For Baban of MedGlobal, the unfolding humanitarian emergency could have serious implications for the wider region.

“Something needs to be done to stop this, to prevent this catastrophe from not only hitting Lebanon but becoming a regional catastrophe.”

 


Jordan’s crown prince meets Bahrain, Kurdistan leaders in Davos

Jordan’s crown prince meets Bahrain, Kurdistan leaders in Davos
Updated 13 sec ago
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Jordan’s crown prince meets Bahrain, Kurdistan leaders in Davos

Jordan’s crown prince meets Bahrain, Kurdistan leaders in Davos
  • Crown Prince Hussein seeks to boost cooperation in the region
  • Joins session on artificial intelligence, global skills development

DUBAI: Representing King Abdullah at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah held meetings recently with regional leaders to reinforce Jordan’s commitment to fostering cooperation and addressing pressing challenges in the region.

The crown prince met with Sheikh Isa bin Salman Al-Khalifa, head of Bahrain’s delegation, to discuss ties between the two nations, according to reports.

Their talks focused on enhancing economic and technological cooperation and advancing training programs to help young people prepare for the workplace.

In addition, they reviewed regional developments, stressing the importance of sustaining the Gaza ceasefire and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid.

In a separate meeting with Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, the discussions focused on relations between Jordan and Iraq.

The officials also spoke about boosting collaboration, especially in economic and technology fields, and addressing key regional issues.

The crown prince also participated in a session on enhancing the skills and productivity of people in the age of artificial intelligence.

The session addressed the WEF’s 2020 initiative to train 1 billion people globally by 2030, which is aimed at closing skill gaps and preparing workers for rapid technological advancements.

The participants at the 55th WEF, held under the theme “Cooperation for the Smart Age,” include heads of state, global CEOs and entrepreneurs, who have gathered to discuss strategies for growth, investing in people, and managing challenges in the energy sector and beyond.

The crown prince was accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Ayman Safadi, Jordan’s Ambassador to Switzerland Nawaf Al-Tal, and Director of the Office of the Crown Prince Dr. Zaid Al-Baqain.


Hundreds leave West Bank camp during Israeli raid: Palestinian official

Hundreds leave West Bank camp during Israeli raid: Palestinian official
Updated 20 sec ago
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Hundreds leave West Bank camp during Israeli raid: Palestinian official

Hundreds leave West Bank camp during Israeli raid: Palestinian official
  • The Israeli military launched an operation in Jenin on Tuesday, saying it aims to uproot Palestinian militants in the camp and the city.

Jenin: A Palestinian official said hundreds of residents of the occupied West Bank’s Jenin refugee camp were leaving their homes Thursday, days into a large-scale Israeli raid in the area.
“Hundreds of camp residents have begun leaving after the Israeli army, using loudspeakers on drones and military vehicles, ordered them to evacuate the camp,” where Israel’s military launched an intense military operation this week, Jenin governor Kamal Abu Al-Rub told AFP.
The army told AFP that it was “unaware of any evacuation orders for residents in Jenin as of now.”
Salim Saadi, a Jenin resident who lives on the edge of the refugee camp, told AFP that the army had asked camp residents to leave between 9:00 am (0700 GMT) and 5:00 pm.
“There are dozens of camp residents who have begun to leave,” he said.
“The army is in front of my house. They could enter at any moment.”
The Israeli military launched an operation in Jenin on Tuesday, saying it aims to uproot Palestinian militants in the camp and the city.
The offensive began just days after a ceasefire deal paused fighting in the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli assault has killed at least 10 Palestinians and injured 40 more, according to the Ramallah-based Palestinian health ministry.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Operation Iron Wall,” as it has been dubbed, will “eradicate terrorism” in the West Bank city known as a bastion of Palestinian militancy.


Israeli army says killed two Palestinian militants in West Bank

Israeli army says killed two Palestinian militants in West Bank
Updated 5 min 7 sec ago
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Israeli army says killed two Palestinian militants in West Bank

Israeli army says killed two Palestinian militants in West Bank
  • The Ramallah-based Palestinian health ministry said Israeli authorities had informed it of the deaths of Nazzal, 25, and Shalabi, 30

Ramallah: The Israeli military said Thursday it killed two Palestinian militants overnight near the occupied West Bank city of Jenin, where a large-scale raid is underway, accusing them of murdering three Israelis.
In a statement, the military said that Israeli forces found the two militants barricaded in a house in the village of Burqin.
“After an exchange of fire, they were eliminated by the forces,” it said, adding one soldier was injured in the exchange.
The military identified those killed as Mohammed Nazzal and Qutaiba Shalabi, accusing them of being “affiliated with Islamic Jihad” and responsible for a deadly shooting on an Israeli bus in early January.
The Ramallah-based Palestinian health ministry said Israeli authorities had informed it of the deaths of Nazzal, 25, and Shalabi, 30.
“The bodies are being withheld” by the army, it added in a statement.
Three Israelis were killed and six injured in a January 6 attack near the village of Al-Funduq, also in the West Bank.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said at the time he had directed the military to “act with force” to find the attackers, vowing on X that “anyone who... enables or supports the murder and harm of Jews will pay a heavy price.”
The night that followed the attack saw several instances of violent altercations with settlers in that part of the West Bank, including in the village of Hajja, whose mayor told AFP it had come under attack.
Violence has surged throughout the occupied West Bank since the Gaza war erupted on October 7, 2023.
According to the Palestinian health ministry, Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 850 Palestinians in the West Bank since the conflict began.
During the same period, at least 29 Israelis, including soldiers, have been killed in Palestinian attacks or Israeli military operations in the territory, according to Israeli official figures.


Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli attack on West Bank’s Jenin

Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli attack on West Bank’s Jenin
Updated 23 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli attack on West Bank’s Jenin

Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli attack on West Bank’s Jenin
  • Gunfire, explosions rocked Jenin on Wednesday as Israeli military kept up large-scale raid for second day
  • The operation, launched just days after a ceasefire in Gaza, has left at least 10 Palestinians dead

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has condemned Israeli forces’ attack in the occupied West Bank’s Jenin area, the Saudi Press Agency said early Thursday.

Gunfire and explosions rocked Jenin on Wednesday, an AFP journalist reported, as the Israeli military kept up a large-scale raid for a second day.

The operation, launched just days after a ceasefire paused more than a year of fighting in Gaza, has left at least 10 Palestinians dead, according to Palestinian health authorities.

Israeli officials have said the raid is part of a broader campaign against militants in the West Bank, citing thousands of attack attempts since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023.

“The Kingdom renews its demand for the international community to assume its responsibilities towards halting Israeli violations of relevant international laws and treaties,” a Saudi foreign ministry statement read.

Saudi Arabia warned that the continuation of these violations might cause the fighting and chaos to return to occupied Palestinian territories, thus risking the security and safety of civilians and undermining chances of peace in the region.


Southern forces loom large as Syria’s new rulers try to form a national army

Southern forces loom large as Syria’s new rulers try to form a national army
Updated 23 January 2025
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Southern forces loom large as Syria’s new rulers try to form a national army

Southern forces loom large as Syria’s new rulers try to form a national army
  • When the HTS-led opposition groups based in the north launched their surprise offensive last year in Aleppo, factions in the southern provinces of Daraa, Sweida and Quneitra reactivated, forming a joint operations room to coordinate with northern ones

NAWA, Syria: As opposition forces raced across Syria in a surprise offensive launched in the country’s northwest late last year, officials from several countries backing either the rebels or Syria’s government met in Qatar on what to do.
According to people briefed on the Dec. 7 meeting, officials from Turkiye, Russia, Iran and a handful of Arab countries agreed that the fighters would stop their advance in Homs, the last major city north of Damascus, and that internationally mediated talks would take place with Syrian leader Bashar Assad on a political transition.
But opposition factions from Syria’s south had other plans. They pushed toward the capital, arriving in Damascus’ largest square before dawn. Those from the north, led by the Islamist group Hayyat Tahrir Al-Sham, arrived hours later. Assad, meanwhile, had fled.
HTS, the most organized of the groups, has since established itself as Syria’s de facto rulers after coordinating with the southern fighters during the lighting-fast offensive.
Wariness among the southern factions since then, however, has highlighted questions over how the interim administration can bring together a patchwork of former rebel groups, each with their own leaders and ideology.
HTS leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa has called for a unified national army and security forces. The interim defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, has begun meeting with armed groups. But some prominent leaders like southern rebel commander Ahmad Al-Awda have refused to attend.
Officials with the interim government did not respond to questions.
 

A handout picture released by Sham News Network shows an anti-regime demonstration in the early hours of April 15, 2012 in the southern city of Daraa, where the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011. (AFP)

Cradle of the revolution
The southern province of Daraa is widely seen as the cradle of the Syrian uprising in 2011. When anti-government protests were met with repression by Assad’s security forces, “we were forced to carry weapons,” said Mahmoud Al-Bardan, a rebel leader there.
The opposition groups that formed in the south had different dynamics from those in the north, less Islamist and more localized, said Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank. They also had different backers.
“In the north, Turkiye and Qatar favored Islamist factions very heavily,” he said. “In the south, Jordanian and American involvement nudged the insurgency in a different direction.”
In 2018, factions in Daraa reached a Russian-mediated “reconciliation agreement” with Assad’s government. Some former fighters left for Idlib, the destination for many from areas recaptured by government forces, while others remained.
The deal left many southern factions alive and armed, Lund said.
“We only turned over the heavy weapons … the light weapons remained with us,” Al-Bardan said.
When the HTS-led opposition groups based in the north launched their surprise offensive last year in Aleppo, those weapons were put to use again. Factions in the southern provinces of Daraa, Sweida and Quneitra reactivated, forming a joint operations room to coordinate with northern ones.
Defying international wishes
On Dec. 7, “we had heard from a number of parties that there might be an agreement that … no one would enter Damascus so there could be an agreement on the exit of Bashar Assad or a transitional phase,” said Nassim Abu Ara, an official with one of the largest rebel factions in the south, the 8th Brigade of Al-Awda.
However, “we entered Damascus and turned the tables on these agreements,” he said.

Nassim Abu Ara, known as Abu Murshid, a rebel leader, poses for a portrait during an interview with the Associated Press, in Nawa, near Daraa, Syria, on Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)

Al-Bardan confirmed that account, asserting that the agreement “was binding on the northern factions” but not the southern ones.
“Even if they had ordered us to stop, we would not have,” he said, reflecting the eagerness among many fighters to remove Assad as soon as possible.
Ammar Kahf, executive director of the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies, who was in Doha on Dec. 7 and was briefed on the meetings, said there was an agreement among countries’ officials that the rebels would stop their offensive in Homs and go to Geneva for negotiations on “transitional arrangements.”
But Kahf said it was not clear that any Syrian faction, including HTS, agreed to the plan. Representatives of countries at the meeting did not respond to questions.
A statement released by the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Russia, Iran, Qatari, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq after the Dec. 7 meeting said they “stressed the need to stop military operations in preparation for launching a comprehensive political process” but did not give specifics.
The initial hours after armed groups’ arrival in Damascus were chaotic. Observers said the HTS-led forces tried to re-impose order when they arrived. An Associated Press journalist saw an argument break out when HTS fighters tried to stop members of another faction from taking abandoned army munitions.
Abu Ara acknowledged that “there was some chaos” but added, “we have to understand that these people were pent-up and suddenly they achieved the joy of victory in this manner.”
 

A member of the new Syrian security forces checks ammunition that belonged to the Assad government, in Nawa, near Daraa, Syria, on Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)

Waiting for a state
During a visit by AP journalists to the western countryside of Daraa province this month, there was no visible presence of HTS forces.
At one former Syrian army site, a fighter with the Free Syrian Army, the main faction in the area, stood guard in jeans and a camouflage shirt. Other local fighters showed off a site where they were storing tanks abandoned by the former army.
“Currently these are the property of the new state and army,” whenever it is formed, said one fighter, Issa Sabaq.
The process of forming those has been bumpy.
On New Year’s Eve, factions in the Druze-majority city of Sweida in southern Syria blocked the entry of a convoy of HTS security forces who had arrived without giving prior notice.
Ahmed Aba Zeid, a Syrian researcher who has studied the southern insurgent groups, said some of the factions have taken a wait-and-see approach before they agree to dissolve and hand over their weapons to the state.
Local armed factions are still the de facto security forces in many areas.

Members of the new Syrian security forces stand outside a security building, in Nawa, near Daraa, Syria, on Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)

Earlier this month, the new police chief in Daraa city appointed by the HTS-led government, Badr Abdel Hamid, joined local officials in the town of Nawa to discuss plans for a police force there.
Hamid said there had been “constructive and positive cooperation” with factions in the region, adding the process of extending the “state’s influence” takes time.
Abu Ara said factions are waiting to understand their role. “Will it be a strong army, or a border guard army, or is it for counterterrorism?” he asked.
Still, he was optimistic that an understanding will be reached.
“A lot of people are afraid that there will be a confrontation, that there won’t be integration or won’t be an agreement,” he said. “But we want to avoid this at all costs, because our country is very tired of war.”