Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?
  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


Japan provides grant to Caritas Lebanon for mammography machine in Sin El Fil

Japan provides grant to Caritas Lebanon for mammography machine in Sin El Fil
Updated 14 sec ago
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Japan provides grant to Caritas Lebanon for mammography machine in Sin El Fil

Japan provides grant to Caritas Lebanon for mammography machine in Sin El Fil
  • Ambassador Magoshi Masayuki signed a grant contract with Father Michel Abboud, President of Caritas Lebanon
  • The center has faced significant challenges due to the economic crisis

BEIRUT: Japan, through the Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Program (GGP), extended a helping hand to Caritas Lebanon by providing a mammography machine to its Sin El Fil Primary Healthcare Center (PHCC).
On Friday, Ambassador Magoshi Masayuki signed a grant contract with Father Michel Abboud, President of Caritas Lebanon.
The Sin El Fil PHCC, established by Caritas Lebanon in 1985, serves as the sole healthcare center in the town of Sin El Fil, providing essential low-cost primary medical services to approximately 300 patients daily, including Lebanese, Syrian refugees, and migrant workers.
Despite its vital role, the center has faced significant challenges due to the economic crisis, including the breakdown of its mammography machine two and a half years ago. This has left residents without affordable breast cancer screening services, forcing patients to rely on costly private facilities or forego testing altogether.
Recognizing the urgent need for early detection of breast cancer and other diseases, Japan has decided to support the Sin El Fil PHCC by providing a new mammography machine.
This project will enable the center to resume affordable breast cancer screening services and to benefit approximately 1,700 patients annually, aligning with the Lebanese government’s ‘National Cancer Plan (2023-2028)’ and the National Health Strategy, which emphasize early detection and primary healthcare.
At the signing ceremony, Ambassador Magoshi commended Caritas Lebanon’s commitment to supporting vulnerable communities through comprehensive medical services.
Caritas Lebanon, in turn, has expressed its gratitude for Japan’s support, highlighting the significance of this project amid the ongoing socio-economic challenges in Lebanon.


UK MPs urge Israel to reconsider UNRWA ban

UK MPs urge Israel to reconsider UNRWA ban
Updated 10 min 36 sec ago
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UK MPs urge Israel to reconsider UNRWA ban

UK MPs urge Israel to reconsider UNRWA ban
  • The chair of the UK parliament’s International Development Committee echoed his call on Friday
  • “While news of a ceasefire is encouraging, the situation on the ground in Gaza and the West Bank remains alarming,” said Sarah Champion

LONDON: British lawmakers warned Friday that an Israeli ban on the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency due to be implemented this month threatens to undermine efforts for peace in the Middle East.
A long-awaited ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the 15-month war in Gaza is due to take effect this weekend.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said on Thursday that legislation barring UNRWA from operating in Israel and east Jerusalem due to be implemented by the end of January threatened the agreement.
“What we don’t want is this peace, that begins on Sunday, undermined by that legislation just a few days into its passing,” he told parliament on Thursday.
The chair of the UK parliament’s International Development Committee echoed his call on Friday.
“While news of a ceasefire is encouraging, the situation on the ground in Gaza and the West Bank remains alarming,” said Sarah Champion, from the ruling Labour party.
“Israel’s proposed ban on UNRWA would prevent aid distribution in Gaza, devastate Palestinian livelihoods and send disruptive ripples throughout the Middle East.”
Her comments came as her committee published a report urging the British government to “do all it can” to ensure UNRWA is able to continue its work.
The report concluded that if UNRWA were banned it would almost certainly lead to further conflict and displacement.
UNRWA provides aid to some six million Palestinian refugees in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria.
But the agency has faced criticism from Israeli officials that has escalated since the start of the war in Gaza, which was unleashed after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
Israel claims that a dozen UNRWA employees were involved in the assault, which resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s ensuing campaign has destroyed much of Gaza, killing 46,788 people, most of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable.
A series of probes, including one led by France’s former foreign minister Catherine Colonna, found some “neutrality related issues” at UNRWA but stressed Israel had not provided evidence for its chief allegations.


Macron announces new Lebanon ‘reconstruction’ conference in Paris

Macron announces new Lebanon ‘reconstruction’ conference in Paris
Updated 24 min 9 sec ago
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Macron announces new Lebanon ‘reconstruction’ conference in Paris

Macron announces new Lebanon ‘reconstruction’ conference in Paris
  • “As soon as the president (Aoun) comes to Paris in a few weeks’ time, we will organize around him an international reconstruction conference to drum up funding,” Macron said
  • “The international community must prepare for massive support to the reconstruction of infrastructure“

BEIRUT: France’s President Emmanuel Macron Friday announced that Paris would in coming weeks host an international reconstruction conference after a war between militant group Hezbollah and Israel.
After more than two years of a political vacuum at the top of the small Mediterranean country, Joseph Aoun was elected president on January 9 and chose Nawaf Salam as prime minister designate.
“Since January 9, in the middle of winter, spring has sprung,” Macron said at a joint press conference with Aoun.
“You are this hope,” he said, referring to Aoun and Salam.
The new prime minister faces the monumental task of forming a government to oversee reconstruction after a November ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war, and enact reforms to lift the country out of its worst economic crisis in history.
“As soon as the president (Aoun) comes to Paris in a few weeks’ time, we will organize around him an international reconstruction conference to drum up funding,” Macron said.
“The international community must prepare for massive support to the reconstruction of infrastructure.”
Under the ceasefire deal, the Lebanese army must deploy alongside UN peacekeepers in the south of Lebanon as the Israeli army withdraws by January 26.
At the same time, Hezbollah is required to pull its forces north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border, and dismantle any remaining military infrastructure it has in the country’s south.
With just over a week to go until the cut-off date, Macron called for accelerated implementation of the truce.
“There have been results... but they must be accelerated and long-lasting. There needs to be complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the Lebanese army must hold total monopoly of any weapons” in south Lebanon, he said.
A committee composed of Israeli, Lebanese, French and US delegates, alongside a representative from UNIFIL, has been tasked with monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire deal.


EU’s Kallas says talks under way to revive Rafah border mission

EU’s Kallas says talks under way to revive Rafah border mission
Updated 52 min 1 sec ago
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EU’s Kallas says talks under way to revive Rafah border mission

EU’s Kallas says talks under way to revive Rafah border mission
  • The mission operated for only a year and a half before it was suspended when Hamas militants took control of the Gaza Strip
  • The EU is “in discussions about redeploying our monitoring mission to Rafah to ensure the stability at the border, so we have it ready,” Kallas told reporters

BRUSSELS: The European Union is in talks to revive a civilian mission to monitor the border crossing between Gaza and Egypt at Rafah following the announcement of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said.
A civilian EU mission to help monitor the Rafah crossing was set up under agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in 2005, part of international help with peace efforts at a time when Israel had pulled troops and settlers from Gaza.
But the mission operated for only a year and a half before it was suspended when Hamas militants took control of the Gaza Strip and drove out the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority.
Kallas met with the Palestinian Authority’s Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa in Brussels on Friday morning and spoke on the phone with Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar.
The EU is “in discussions about redeploying our monitoring mission to Rafah to ensure the stability at the border, so we have it ready,” Kallas told reporters in Brussels.
Kallas said redeploying would require invitations from Israel and the Palestinian Authority as well as a cooperation agreement with Egypt. She said the mission now had ten international staff and eight locals on standby.
“We will also be ready to assist in reconstruction and recovery,” she said.
Kallas said the EU was committed to a two-state solution to the broader Israel-Palestinian conflict.
“Of course lasting peace means compromises on both sides,” she said. “I think there is a chance to prevent further loss of life with this ceasefire.”


Aid agencies ready Gaza push but warn of mammoth obstacles

Aid agencies ready Gaza push but warn of mammoth obstacles
Updated 17 January 2025
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Aid agencies ready Gaza push but warn of mammoth obstacles

Aid agencies ready Gaza push but warn of mammoth obstacles
  • On the ground in the territory, aid workers worry nothing will be enough to meet the need
  • World Food Programme has enough food for one million people ‘waiting outside Gaza or on its way’

CAIRO: An Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal expected to take effect on Sunday has sparked hope for life-saving aid to reach Palestinians, but aid agencies warn of obstacles from destroyed infrastructure, massive need and collapsed law and order.
Announcing the truce, United States President Joe Biden said on Wednesday it would “surge much needed humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians.”
The United Nations’ humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher called it “a moment of hope and opportunity” but said “we should be under no illusions how tough it will still be to get support to survivors.”
On the ground in the territory, where nearly all 2.4 million people have been displaced at least once, aid workers worry nothing will be enough to meet the need.
“Everything has been destroyed. Children are on the streets. You can’t pinpoint just one priority,” Doctors Without Borders (MSF) coordinator Amande Bazerolle said by phone from Gaza.
Speaking from the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis, Mohammed Al-Khatib, of Medical Aid for Palestinians, said local aid workers haven’t stopped for 15 months even though they themselves are displaced.
“Everyone is exhausted,” he said.
In the hunger-stricken makeshift shelters set up in former schools, bombed-out houses and cemeteries, hundreds of thousands lack even plastic sheeting to protect from winter rains and biting winds, Gavin Kelleher, of the Norwegian Refugee Council, said.
Even if the bombs stop, agencies like his have to focus on the basics of emergency response, including bringing in “tarpaulins, rope and fixtures to close gaping holes” in buildings.
“At least until we stop seeing children dying of hypothermia,” he said via text message from Gaza.
By last week, hypothermia had killed at least eight people – four newborns, three infants and one adult – according to a health ministry toll used by the World Health Organization.
On Wednesday, Egypt’s state-linked Al-Qahera News reported coordination was underway to reopen the Rafah crossing on the Gaza border. It was one of the main humanitarian entry points but has been closed since Israeli forces seized the Palestinian side in May.
The truce is based on a plan Biden presented in mid-2024 that foresaw a surge in aid to 600 trucks per day, or more than eight times the December average reported by the United Nations.
The World Food Programme said Thursday it had enough food for one million people “waiting outside Gaza or on its way.”
On the Egyptian side of the border, a source in the Egyptian Red Crescent said up to 1,000 trucks are waiting “for their entry into Gaza.”
But with air strikes continuing to pound the territory, where aid groups and the UN have regularly accused Israel of impeding aid flows – which Israeli denies – aid workers were skeptical.
MSF’s Bazerolle said the promise of hundreds of trucks a day “is not even feasible technically.”
“Since Rafah has been destroyed, the infrastructure is not there to be able to cope with that level of logistics,” she explained, with bombs audible in the background.
Aid that does arrive is subject to looting by both armed gangs and desperate civilians.
“The Israelis have targeted the police, so there’s no one to protect the shipments” from looting, which Bazerolle said will continue “as long as there’s not enough aid entering.”
After more than a year of the “systematic dismantling of the rule of law” in Gaza, NRC’s Kelleher called for “the resumption of a Palestinian civilian police force.”
The situation is especially dire in northern Gaza.
Bazerolle, who says MSF missions in the area have been targeted by Israel, says the group hopes to send teams to the north “to at least treat patients where they are,” in the absence of hospitals.
According to the WHO, only one hospital, Al-Awda, is partially functioning in the north.
WHO’s Rik Peeperkorn said that, in addition to hospital capacity, his agency will focus on “the very basic things” including water, electricity and waste management systems in Gaza.
Still, the displaced will hope to head back – including Khatib himself – if the truce holds.
Many, he said, “will return to find their entire neighborhoods destroyed” and without food or shelter.
“People aren’t even talking about rebuilding their houses, but just the most basic essential needs,” he continued.
“We’re closing one chapter of suffering and opening a new one,” he predicted, before adding: “At least there is some hope of the bloodshed ending.”