Donald Trump has sweeping plans for a second administration. Here’s what he’s proposed

Donald Trump has sweeping plans for a second administration. Here’s what he’s proposed
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"Donald Trump" is written on top of the wall at the border between the US and Mexico, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Nov. 6, 2024. (REUTERS)
Donald Trump has sweeping plans for a second administration. Here’s what he’s proposed
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Birds fly near a razor wire fence, used to prevent migrants from crossing into the US, at the US-Mexico border, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico on Nov. 6, 2024. (REUTERS)
Donald Trump has sweeping plans for a second administration. Here’s what he’s proposed
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A person rides a bike near the wall at the border between the US and Mexico, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Nov. 6, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 08 November 2024
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Donald Trump has sweeping plans for a second administration. Here’s what he’s proposed

Donald Trump has sweeping plans for a second administration. Here’s what he’s proposed
  • Trump’s agenda also would scale back federal government efforts on civil rights and expand presidential powers
  • Altogether, his approach would not just crack down on illegal migration, but curtail immigration overall

WASHINGTON: Donald Trump has promised sweeping action in a second administration.
The former president and now president-elect often skipped over details but through more than a year of policy pronouncements and written statements outlined a wide-ranging agenda that blends traditional conservative approaches to taxes, regulation and cultural issues with a more populist bent on trade and a shift in America’s international role.
Trump’s agenda also would scale back federal government efforts on civil rights and expand presidential powers.
A look at what Trump has proposed:
Immigration
“Build the wall!” from his 2016 campaign has become creating “the largest mass deportation program in history.” Trump has called for using the National Guard and empowering domestic police forces in the effort. Still, Trump has been scant on details of what the program would look like and how he would ensure that it targeted only people in the US illegally. He’s pitched “ideological screening” for would-be entrants, ending birth-right citizenship (which almost certainly would require a constitutional change), and said he’d reinstitute first-term policies such as “Remain in Mexico,” limiting migrants on public health grounds and severely limiting or banning entrants from certain majority-Muslim nations. Altogether, the approach would not just crack down on illegal migration, but curtail immigration overall.

Abortion
Trump played down abortion as a second-term priority, even as he took credit for the Supreme Court ending a woman’s federal right to terminate a pregnancy and returning abortion regulation to state governments. At Trump’s insistence, the GOP platform, for the first time in decades, did not call for a national ban on abortion. Trump maintains that overturning Roe v. Wade is enough on the federal level. Trump said last month on his social media platform Truth Social that he would veto a federal abortion ban if legislation reached his desk — a statement he made only after avoiding a firm position in his September debate against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
But it’s unclear if his administration would aggressively defend against legal challenges seeking to restrict access to abortion pills, including mifepristone, as the Biden administration has. Anti-abortion advocates continue to wage legal battles over the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the drug as well as the agency’s relaxed prescribing restrictions. Trump is also unlikely to enforce Biden’s guidance that hospitals must provide abortions for women who are in medical emergencies, even in states with bans.
Taxes
Trump’s tax policies broadly tilt toward corporations and wealthier Americans. That’s mostly due to his promise to extend his 2017 tax overhaul, with a few notable changes that include lowering the corporate income tax rate to 15 percent from the current 21 percent. That also involves rolling back Democratic President Joe Biden’s income tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans and scrapping Inflation Reduction Act levies that finance energy measures intended to combat climate change.
Those policies notwithstanding, Trump has put more emphasis on new proposals aimed at working- and middle class Americans: exempting earned tips, Social Security wages and overtime wages from income taxes. It’s noteworthy, however, that his proposal on tips, depending on how Congress might write it, could give a back-door tax break to top wage earners by allowing them to reclassify some of their pay as tip income — a prospect that at its most extreme could see hedge-fund managers or top-flight attorneys taking advantage of a policy that Trump frames as being designed for restaurant servers, bartenders and other service workers.
Tariffs and trade
Trump’s posture on international trade is to distrust world markets as harmful to American interests. He proposes tariffs of 10 percent to 20 percent on foreign goods — and in some speeches has mentioned even higher percentages. He promises to reinstitute an August 2020 executive order requiring that the federal government buy “essential” medications only from US companies. He pledges to block purchases of “any vital infrastructure” in the US by Chinese buyers.
DEI, LGBTQ and civil rights
Trump has called for rolling back societal emphasis on diversity and for legal protections for LGBTQ citizens. Trump has called for ending diversity, equity and inclusion programs in government institutions, using federal funding as leverage.
On transgender rights, Trump promises generally to end “boys in girls’ sports,” a practice he insists, without evidence, is widespread. But his policies go well beyond standard applause lines from his rally speeches. Among other ideas, Trump would roll back the Biden administration’s policy of extending Title IX civil rights protections to transgender students, and he would ask Congress to require that only two genders can be recognized at birth.
Regulation, federal bureaucracy and presidential power
The president-elect seeks to reduce the role of federal bureaucrats and regulations across economic sectors. Trump frames all regulatory cuts as an economic magic wand. He pledges precipitous drops in US households’ utility bills by removing obstacles to fossil fuel production, including opening all federal lands for exploration — even though US energy production is already at record highs. Trump promises to unleash housing construction by cutting regulations — though most construction rules come from state and local government. He also says he would end “frivolous litigation from the environmental extremists.”
The approach would in many ways strengthen executive branch influence. That power would come more directly from the White House.
He would make it easier to fire federal workers by classifying thousands of them as being outside civil service protections. That could weaken the government’s power to enforce statutes and rules by reducing the number of employees engaging in the work and, potentially, impose a chilling effect on those who remain.
Trump also claims that presidents have exclusive power to control federal spending even after Congress has appropriated money. Trump argues that lawmakers’ budget actions “set a ceiling” on spending but not a floor — meaning the president’s constitutional duty to “faithfully execute the laws” includes discretion on whether to spend the money. This interpretation could set up a court battle with Congress.
As a candidate, he also suggested that the Federal Reserve, an independent entity that sets interest rates, should be subject to more presidential power. Though he has not offered details, any such move would represent a momentous change to how the US economic and monetary systems work.
Education
The federal Department of Education would be targeted for elimination in a second Trump administration. That does not mean that Trump wants Washington out of classrooms. He still proposes, among other maneuvers, using federal funding as leverage to pressure K-12 school systems to abolish tenure and adopt merit pay for teachers and to scrap diversity programs at all levels of education. He calls for pulling federal funding “for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory, gender ideology, or other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content on our children.”
In higher education, Trump proposes taking over accreditation processes for colleges, a move he describes as his “secret weapon” against the “Marxist Maniacs and lunatics” he says control higher education. Trump takes aim at higher education endowments, saying he will collect “billions and billions of dollars” from schools via “taxing, fining and suing excessively large private university endowments” at schools that do not comply with his edicts. That almost certainly would end up in protracted legal fights.
As in other policy areas, Trump isn’t actually proposing limiting federal power in higher education but strengthening it. He calls for redirecting the confiscated endowment money into an online “American Academy” offering college credentials to all Americans without a tuition charges. “It will be strictly non-political, and there will be no wokeness or jihadism allowed— none of that’s going to be allowed,” Trump said on Nov. 1, 2023.
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid
Trump insists he would protect Social Security and Medicare, popular programs geared toward older Americans and among the biggest pieces of the federal spending pie each year. There are questions about how his proposal not to tax tip and overtime wages might affect Social Security and Medicare. If such plans eventually involved only income taxes, the entitlement programs would not be affected. But exempting those wages from payroll taxes would reduce the funding stream for Social Security and Medicare outlays. Trump has talked little about Medicaid during this campaign, but his first administration reshaped the program by allowing states to introduce work requirements for recipients.
Affordable Care Act and Health Care
As he has since 2015, Trump calls for repealing the Affordable Care Act and its subsidized health insurance marketplaces. But he still has not proposed a replacement: In a September debate, he insisted he had the “concepts of a plan.” In the latter stages of the campaign, Trump played up his alliance with former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime critic of vaccines and of pesticides used in US agriculture. Trump repeatedly told rally crowds that he would put Kennedy in charge of “making America healthy again.”
Climate and energy
Trump, who claims falsely that climate change is a “hoax,” blasts Biden-era spending on cleaner energy designed to reduce US reliance on fossil fuels. He proposes an energy policy – and transportation infrastructure spending – anchored to fossil fuels: roads, bridges and combustion-engine vehicles. “Drill, baby, drill!” was a regular chant at Trump rallies. Trump says he does not oppose electric vehicles but promises to end all Biden incentives to encourage EV market development. Trump also pledges to roll back Biden-era fuel efficiency standards.
Workers’ rights
Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance framed their ticket as favoring America’s workers. But Trump could make it harder for workers to unionize. In discussing auto workers, Trump focused almost exclusively on Biden’s push toward electric vehicles. When he mentioned unions, it was often to lump “the union bosses and CEOs” together as complicit in “this disastrous electric car scheme.” In an Oct. 23, 2023, statement, Trump said of United Auto Workers, “I’m telling you, you shouldn’t pay those dues.”
National defense and America’s role in the world
Trump’s rhetoric and policy approach in world affairs is more isolationist diplomatically, non-interventionist militarily and protectionist economically than the US has been since World War II. But the details are more complicated. He pledges expansion of the military, promises to protect Pentagon spending from austerity efforts and proposes a new missile defense shield — an old idea from the Reagan era during the Cold War. Trump insists he can end Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, without explaining how. Trump summarizes his approach through another Reagan phrase: “peace through strength.” But he remains critical of NATO and top US military brass. “I don’t consider them leaders,” Trump said of Pentagon officials that Americans “see on television.” He repeatedly praised authoritarians like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
 


One dead, dozens missing in China landslide

One dead, dozens missing in China landslide
Updated 5 sec ago
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One dead, dozens missing in China landslide

One dead, dozens missing in China landslide
  • China has been hit with extreme weather in recent months, with dozens of people killed in floods last year
  • Scientists say climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent
SHANGHAI: A landslide in China’s southwestern Sichuan province triggered by heavy rain has killed at least one person, with nearly 30 more missing, state media said Sunday.
China has been hit with extreme weather in recent months, with dozens of people killed in floods last year, its warmest on record.
Scientists say climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent.
Saturday’s landslide hit Jinping village in the city of Yibin at around 11:50 a.m. (0350 GMT).
As of Sunday morning, “one person has been killed and 28 people are missing,” state news agency Xinhua said.
Two people were saved on Saturday and more than 900 rescuers are attempting to find the rest of the missing people, Xinhua said.
Video footage published by state broadcaster CCTV earlier on Sunday showed rescuers with flashlights searching through debris in the dark.
“A preliminary study shows this disaster occurred due to the influence of recent prolonged rainfall and geological factors,” CCTV said, citing local authorities.
President Xi Jinping ordered authorities on Saturday to do “everything possible to search for and rescue missing people, minimize casualties, and properly handle the aftermath.”

Bangladesh crackdown on ex-regime loyalists

Bangladesh crackdown on ex-regime loyalists
Updated 09 February 2025
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Bangladesh crackdown on ex-regime loyalists

Bangladesh crackdown on ex-regime loyalists

DHAKA: Bangladesh on Sunday launched a major security operation after protesters were attacked by gangs allegedly connected to the ousted regime of ex-leader Sheikh Hasina.
A government statement said the operation began after gangs “linked to the fallen autocratic regime attacked a group of students, leaving them severely injured.”
Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, head of the interior ministry in the interim government that took over after Hasina was ousted in the August 2024 student-led revolution, has dubbed it “Operation Devil Hunt.”
“It will continue until we uproot the devils,” Chowdhury told reporters.
The sweeping security operations come after days of unrest.
On Wednesday, six months to the day since Hasina fled as crowds stormed her palace in Dhaka, protesters smashed down buildings connected to her family using excavators.
Protests were triggered in response to reports that 77-year-old Hasina — who has defied an arrest warrant to face trial crimes against humanity — would appear in a Facebook broadcast from exile in neighboring India.
Buildings destroyed included the museum and former home of Hasina’s late father, Bangladesh’s first president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
The interim government blamed Hasina for the violence.
On Friday, interim leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus also pleaded for calm.
“Respecting the rule of law is what differentiates the new Bangladesh we are working together to build, from the old Bangladesh under the fascist regime,” Yunus said in a statement.
“For the citizens who rose up and overthrew the Hasina regime ... it is imperative to prove to ourselves and our friends around the world that our commitment to our principles — respecting one another’s civil and human rights and acting under the law — is unshakable.”
Hours later, members of the Students Against Discrimination — the protest group credited with sparking the uprising against Hasina — were attacked in the Dhaka district of Gazipur.
The vocal and powerful group — whose members are in the government cabinet — had since demanded action.


Trump says some white South Africans are oppressed, could be resettled in the US. They say no thanks

Trump says some white South Africans are oppressed, could be resettled in the US. They say no thanks
Updated 09 February 2025
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Trump says some white South Africans are oppressed, could be resettled in the US. They say no thanks

Trump says some white South Africans are oppressed, could be resettled in the US. They say no thanks
  • Trump administration accused the South African government of allowing violent attacks on white Afrikaner farmers and introducing a land expropriation law targetting minority farmers
  • President Ramaphosa’s government denied claims of concerted attacks on white farmers, says Trump’s description of the new land law is full of misinformation and distortions
  • Afrikaner lobby group AfriForum, representing some of the Africaners, thanked Trump but rejected the offer, saying, “We don’t want to move elsewhere”

CAPE TOWN, South Africa: Groups representing some of South Africa’s white minority responded Saturday to a plan by President Donald Trump to offer them refugee status and resettlement in the United States by saying: thanks, but no thanks.
The plan was detailed in an executive order Trump signed Friday that stopped all aid and financial assistance to South Africa as punishment for what the Trump administration said were “rights violations” by the government against some of its white citizens.
The Trump administration accused the South African government of allowing violent attacks on white Afrikaner farmers and introducing a land expropriation law that enables it to “seize ethnic minority Afrikaners’ agricultural property without compensation.”
The South African government has denied there are any concerted attacks on white farmers and has said that Trump’s description of the new land law is full of misinformation and distortions.
Afrikaners are descended from mainly Dutch, but also French and German colonial settlers who first arrived in South Africa more than 300 years ago. They speak Afrikaans, a language derived from Dutch that developed in South Africa, and are distinct from other white South Africans who come from British or other backgrounds.
Together, whites make up around 7 percent of South Africa’s population of 62 million.
‘We are not going anywhere’
On Saturday, two of the most prominent groups representing Afrikaners said they would not be taking up Trump’s offer of resettlement in the US.
“Our members work here, and want to stay here, and they are going to stay here,” said Dirk Hermann, chief executive of the Afrikaner trade union Solidarity, which says it represents around 2 million people. “We are committed to build a future here. We are not going anywhere.”
At the same press conference, Kallie Kriel, the CEO of the Afrikaner lobby group AfriForum, said: “We have to state categorically: We don’t want to move elsewhere.”
Trump’s move to sanction South Africa, a key US trading partner in Africa, came after he and his South African-born adviser Elon Musk have accused its Black leadership of having an anti-white stance. But the portrayal of Afrikaners as a downtrodden group that needed to be saved would surprise most South Africans.
“It is ironic that the executive order makes provision for refugee status in the US for a group in South Africa that remains among the most economically privileged,” South Africa’s Foreign Ministry said. It also criticized the Trump administration’s own policies, saying the focus on Afrikaners came “while vulnerable people in the US from other parts of the world are being deported and denied asylum despite real hardship.”
There was “a campaign of misinformation and propaganda” aimed at South Africa, the ministry said.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s spokesperson said: “South Africa is a constitutional democracy. We value all South Africans, Black and white. The assertion that Afrikaners face arbitrary deprivation and, therefore, need to flee the country of their birth is an assertion devoid of all truth.”
Whites in South Africa still generally have a much better standard of living than Blacks more than 30 years after the end of the apartheid system of white minority rule in 1994. Despite being a small minority, whites own around 70 percent of South Africa’s private farmland. A study in 2021 by the South Africa Human Rights Commission said 1 percent of whites were living in poverty compared to 64 percent of Blacks.
Redressing the wrongs of colonialism
Sithabile Ngidi, a market trader in Johannesburg, said she hadn’t seen white people being mistreated in South Africa.
“He (Trump) should have actually come from America to South Africa to try and see what was happening for himself and not just take the word of an Elon Musk, who hasn’t lived in this country for the longest of time, who doesn’t even relate to South Africans,” Ngidi said.
But Trump’s action against South Africa has given international attention to a sentiment among some white South Africans that they are being discriminated against as a form of payback for apartheid. The leaders of the apartheid government were Afrikaners.
Solidarity, AfriForum and others are strongly opposed to the new land expropriation law, saying it will target land owned by whites who have worked to develop that land for years. They also say an equally contentious language law that’s recently been passed seeks to remove or limit their Afrikaans language in schools, while they have often criticized South Africa’s affirmative action policies in business that promote the interests of Blacks as racist laws.
“This government is allowing a certain section of the population to be targeted,” said AfriForum’s Kriel, who thanked Trump for raising the case of Afrikaners. But Kriel said Afrikaners were committed to South Africa.
The South African government says the laws that have been criticized are aimed at the difficult task of redressing the wrongs of colonialism and then nearly a half-century of apartheid, when Blacks were stripped of their land and almost all their rights.
 


African leaders urge direct talks with rebels to resolve DR Congo conflict

African leaders urge direct talks with rebels to resolve DR Congo conflict
Updated 09 February 2025
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African leaders urge direct talks with rebels to resolve DR Congo conflict

African leaders urge direct talks with rebels to resolve DR Congo conflict
  • communique at the end of talks urged the resumption of “direct negotiations and dialogue with all state and non-state parties'
  • Rwanda has blamed the deployment of SADC peacekeepers for worsening the conflict in North Kivu, a mineral-rich province in eastern Congo that’s now controlled by M23

KAMPALA, Uganda: Leaders from eastern and southern Africa on Saturday called for an immediate ceasefire in eastern Congo, where rebels are threatening to overthrow the Congolese government, but also urged Congo’s president to directly negotiate with them.
Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, who attended the summit in the Tanzanian city of Dar es Salaam by videoconference, has previously said he would never talk to the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels he sees as driven to exploit his country’s vast mineral wealth.
A communique at the end of talks urged the resumption of “direct negotiations and dialogue with all state and non-state parties,” including M23. The rebels seized Goma, the biggest city in eastern Congo, following fighting that left nearly 3,000 dead and hundreds of thousands of displaced, according to the UN
The unprecedented joint summit included leaders from the East African Community bloc, of which both Rwanda and Congo are members, and those from the Southern African Development Community, or SADC, which includes countries ranging from Congo to South Africa.
Rwandan President Paul Kagame attended the summit along with his South African counterpart, Cyril Ramaphosa, who has angered the Rwandans by deploying South African troops in eastern Congo under the banner of SADC to fight M23.
Rwanda has blamed the deployment of SADC peacekeepers for worsening the conflict in North Kivu, a mineral-rich province in eastern Congo that’s now controlled by M23. Kagame insists SADC troops were not peacekeepers because they were fighting alongside Congolese forces to defeat the rebels.
The rebels are backed by some 4,000 troops from neighboring Rwanda, according to UN experts, while Congolese government forces are backed by regional peacekeepers, UN forces, allied militias and troops from neighboring Burundi. They’re now focused on preventing the rebels from taking Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province.
Dialogue ‘is not a sign of weakness’
The M23 rebellion stems partly from Rwanda’s decades-long concern that rebels opposed to Kagame’s government have been allowed by Congo’s military to be active in largely lawless parts of eastern Congo. Kagame also charges that Tshisekedi has overlooked the legitimate concerns of Congolese Tutsis who face discrimination.
Kenyan President William Ruto told the summit that “the lives of millions depend on our ability to navigate this complex and challenging situation with wisdom, clarity of mind, empathy.”
Dialogue “is not a sign of weakness,” said Ruto, the current chair of the East African Community. “It is in this spirit that we must encourage all parties to put aside their differences and mobilize for engagements in constructive dialogue.”
The M23 advance echoed the rebels’ previous capture of Goma over a decade ago and shattered a 2024 ceasefire, brokered by Angola, between Rwanda and Congo.
Some regional analysts fear that the rebels’ latest offensive is more potent because they are linking their fight to wider agitation for better governance and have vowed to go all the way to the capital, Kinshasa, 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) west of Goma.
Rebels face pressure to pull out of Goma
The Congo River Alliance, a coalition of rebel groups including M23, said in an open letter to the summit that they are fighting a Congolese regime that “flouted republican norms” and is “becoming an appalling danger for the Congolese people.”
“Those who are fighting against Mr. Tshisekedi are indeed sons of the country, nationals of all the provinces,” it said. “Since our revolution is national, it encompasses people of all ethnic and community backgrounds, including Congolese citizens who speak the Kinyarwanda language.”
The letter, signed by Corneille Nangaa, a leader of the rebel alliance, said the group was “open for a direct dialogue” with the Congolese government.
But the rebels and their allies also face pressure to pull out of Goma.
In addition to calling for the immediate reopening of the airport in Goma, the summit in Dar es Salaam also called for the drawing of “modalities for withdrawal of uninvited foreign armed groups” from Congolese territory.
A meeting in Equatorial Guinea Friday of another regional bloc, the Economic Community of Central African States, also called for the immediate withdrawal of Rwandan troops from Congo as well as the airport’s reopening to facilitate access to humanitarian aid.
 


Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin really does

Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin really does
Updated 09 February 2025
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Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin really does

Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin really does
  • Trump boasts of his deal-making prowess, called Putin “smart” and threatened Russia with tariffs and oil price cuts unless it comes to the negotiating table
  • But with little incentive to come to the negotiating table, Putin will not easily surrender what he considers Russia’s ancestral lands in Ukraine

Nearly three years after President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, his troops are making steady progress on the battlefield. Kyiv is grappling with shortages of men and weapons. And the new US president could soon halt Ukraine’s massive supply of military aid.
Putin is closer than ever to achieving his objectives in the battle-weary country, with little incentive to come to the negotiating table, no matter how much US President Donald Trump might cajole or threaten him, according to Russian and Western experts interviewed by The Associated Press.
Both are signaling discussions on Ukraine -– by phone or in person -– using flattery and threats.
Putin said Trump was “clever and pragmatic,” and even parroted his false claims of having won the 2020 election. Trump’s opening gambit was to call Putin “smart” and to threaten Russia with tariffs and oil price cuts, which the Kremlin brushed off.
Trump boasted during the campaign he could end the war in 24 hours, which later became six months. He’s indicated the US is talking to Russia about Ukraine without Kyiv’s input, saying his administration already had “very serious” discussions.
He suggested he and Putin could soon take “significant” action toward ending the war, in which Russia is suffering heavy casualties daily while its economy endures stiff Western sanctions, inflation and a serious labor shortage.
But the economy has not collapsed, and because Putin has unleashed the harshest crackdown on dissent since Soviet times, he faces no domestic pressure to end the war.
“In the West, the idea came from somewhere that it’s important to Putin to reach an agreement and end things. This is not the case,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, who hosted a forum with Putin in November and heads Moscow’s Council for Foreign and Defense policies.
Talks on Ukraine without Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says Putin wants to deal directly with Trump, cutting out Kyiv. That runs counter to the Biden administration’s position that echoed Zelensky’s call of “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
“We cannot let someone decide something for us,” Zelensky told AP, saying Russia wants the “destruction of Ukrainian freedom and independence.”
He suggested any such peace deal would send the dangerous signal that adventurism pays to authoritarian leaders in China, North Korea and Iran.
Putin appears to expect Trump to undermine European resolve on Ukraine. Likening Europe’s leaders to Trump’s lapdogs, he said Sunday they will soon be “sitting obediently at their master’s feet and sweetly wagging their tails” as the US president quickly brings order with his ”character and persistence.”
Trump boasts of his deal-making prowess but Putin will not easily surrender what he considers Russia’s ancestral lands in Ukraine or squander a chance to punish the West and undermine its alliances and security by forcing Kyiv into a policy of neutrality.
Trump may want a legacy as a peacemaker, but “history won’t look kindly on him if he’s the man who gives this all away,” said Sir Kim Darroch, British ambassador to the US from 2016-19. Former NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said a deal favoring Moscow would send a message of “American weakness.”
Echoes of Helsinki
Trump and Putin last met in Helsinki in 2018 when there was “mutual respect” between them, said former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, the summit host. But they are “not very similar,” he added, with Putin a “systematic” thinker while Trump acts like a businessman making “prompt” decisions.
That could cause a clash because Trump wants a quick resolution to the war while Putin seeks a slower one that strengthens his military position and weakens both Kyiv and the West’s political will.
Zelensky told AP that Putin “does not want to negotiate. He will sabotage it.” Indeed, Putin has already raised obstacles, including legal hurdles and claimed Zelensky has lost his legitimacy as president.
Putin hopes Trump will “get bored” or distracted with another issue, said Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat in Geneva who quit his post after the invasion.
Russian experts point to Trump’s first term when they said Putin realized such meetings achieved little.
One was a public relations victory for Moscow in Helsinki where Trump sided with Putin instead of his own intelligence agencies on whether Russia meddled in the 2016 election. Another was in Singapore in 2019 with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un when he failed to reach a deal to halt Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
Previous peace talks
The Kremlin last year said a draft peace agreement that Russia and Ukraine negotiated in Istanbul early in the conflict — but which Kyiv rejected — could be the basis for talks.
It demanded Ukraine’s neutrality, stipulated NATO deny it membership, put limits on Kyiv’s armed forces and delayed talks on the status of four Russian-occupied regions that Moscow later annexed illegally. Moscow also dismissed demands to withdraw its troops, pay compensation to Ukraine and face an international tribunal for its action.
Putin hasn’t indicated he will budge but said “if there is a desire to negotiate and find a compromise solution, let anyone conduct these negotiations.”
“Engagement is not the same as negotiation,” said Sir Laurie Bristow, British ambassador to Russia from 2016-20, describing Russia’s strategy as “what’s mine is mine. And what’s yours is up for negotiation.”
Bondarev also said Putin sees negotiations only as a vehicle “to deliver him whatever he wants,” adding it’s “astonishing” that Western leaders still don’t understand Kremlin tactics.
That means Putin is likely to welcome any meeting with Trump, since it promotes Russia as a global force and plays well domestically, but he will offer little in return.
What Trump can and can’t do
Trump said Zelensky should have made a deal with Putin to avoid war, adding he wouldn’t have allowed the conflict to start if he had been in office.
Trump has threatened Russia with more tariffs, sanctions and oil price cuts, but there is no economic “wonder weapon” that can end the war, said Richard Connolly, a Russian military and economic expert at London’s Royal United Services Institute.
And the Kremlin is brushing off the threats, likely because the West already has heavily sanctioned Russia.
Trump also can’t guarantee Ukraine would never join NATO, nor can he lift all Western sanctions, easily force Europe to resume importing Russian energy or get the International Criminal Court to rescind its war crimes arrest warrant for Putin.
Speaking to the Davos World Economic Forum, Trump said he wants the OPEC+ alliance and Saudi Arabia to cut oil prices to push Putin to end the war. The Kremlin said that won’t work because the war is about Russian security, not the price of oil. It also would harm US oil producers.
“In the tradeoff between Putin and domestic oil producers, I’m pretty sure which choice Trump will make,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.
Trump could pressure Russia by propping up the US oil industry with subsidies and lift the 10 percent trade tariffs imposed on China in exchange for Beijing limiting economic ties with Moscow, which could leave it “truly isolated,” Connolly said.
Europe also could underscore its commitment to Kyiv – and curry favor with Trump – by buying US military equipment to give to Ukraine, said Lord Peter Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser.
Lukyanov suggested that Trump’s allies often seem afraid of him and crumble under his threats.
The “big question,” he said, is what will happen when Putin won’t.