Is the ‘writing on the wall’ for Syria’s Assad?

Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 08 December 2024
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Is the ‘writing on the wall’ for Syria’s Assad?

Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
  • Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall,” Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. “Things are folding very quickly”
  • As early as November 2011, Turkiye’s Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his “office is only temporary”

PARIS: More than 13 years since Bashar Assad’s security forces opened fire on protesters demanding democratic reforms, the Syrian president’s grip on power may finally be weakening.
The 59-year-old son and heir of late dictator Hafez Assad has faced several setbacks during the long civil war triggered by his brutal crackdown in March 2011, but has so far managed to cling on to power.
Now, with his Lebanese ally Hezbollah reeling from an Israeli onslaught and his great power backer Russia distracted by its invasion of Ukraine, Assad is running short of friends on the battlefield.
Key cities in the north, including Aleppo and Hama have fallen to opposition fighters in just a matter of days.
And on Saturday the militants said they are now encircling the capital where Assad has ruled since the death of his father in 2000.
Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has welcomed the militant advance; Israel is reinforcing its forces in the occupied Golan; and Syria’s southern neighbor Jordan is organizing an evacuation of its citizens.
In a further sign of Assad’s isolation, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group, which controls much of northeast Syria, said it was ready to speak to its foes among the Turkish-backed militants.
But international observers have repeatedly predicted the isolated former ophthalmologist’s fall since the earliest months of the uprising, and they have repeatedly been incorrect.
The 2011 protests against Assad’s rule began after a teenager was arrested for allegedly scrawling anti-government graffiti in the southern town of Daraa.

Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall,” Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. “Things are folding very quickly.”
The militant advance has been stunning.
After Aleppo and Hama fell in quick succession, the militants and government forces were clashing Saturday near the major city of Homs.
Its capture would effectively cut Assad’s capital off from his support base in the Alawite minority community in the coastal highlands.
“The Alawite minority has lost faith in Assad,” Landis said. “There are serious questions about whether the Syrian army has any fight left.”
But some caution is merited. After all, haven’t world leaders underestimated Assad before?
As early as November 2011, Turkiye’s Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his “office is only temporary.”
In October 2012, during a re-election campaign debate, US president Barack Obama also warned Assad that his “days are numbered.”
The next month, Nabil Elaraby, then the head of the Arab League, declared “everyone knows that the government in Syria will not remain for long.”
The Syrian strongman defied them all, even as international lawyers drew up arrest warrants for war crimes and rights groups denounced Syria’s use of chemical weapons and aerial bombardment in civilian areas.
As the civil war spiralled into overlapping regional conflicts — government versus militants, Turkiye versus Kurdish fighters, US-backed militias against Daesh group jihadists — Assad retained his grip.
At first he was ostracized by many fellow Arab leaders, leaning instead on Iranian and Russian support, but as it became clear he was not leaving the stage diplomatic ties quietly resumed.

And meanwhile, Russia and Iran had Assad’s back. Lebanon’s pro-Iran Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters, backed by Iranian advisers, to bolster Syrian government forces. Russia carried out air strikes.
But the speed of this week’s militant victories seems to suggest that without his powerful foreign friends, Assad’s Syrian army is a hollow shell.
Russia has such little confidence in its ally that its embassy has acknowledged a “difficult military and political situation.”
Before the recent ceasefire in its conflict with Israel, Hezbollah lost thousands of fighters and weapons and its long-standing chief Hassan Nasrallah.
It appears to be in no position to help, despite a Hezbollah source saying Saturday it had sent 2,000 fighters into Syria’s Qusayr area “to defend its positions.”
“The Assad government is in its most precarious position since the summer of 2012,” Nick Heras, an analyst at the New Lines Institute, told AFP.
“There is a real risk that the Assad government could lose power in Damascus, either through battles or through a negotiated retreat.
“Ultimately, the Assad government’s ability to survive will depend on the extent to which Iran and Russia see Assad as useful to their strategies in the region.”
Heras said that Russia, which has a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, would be loath to withdraw its military personnel and assets from the country, and Iran would be similarly reluctant to abandon Assad.
“If either or both of those allies decide they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered,” Heras said.
The winners would be Assad’s main regional opponents: Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkiye’s Erdogan, who both faced periods of intense domestic criticism only to emerge victorious in war.
Turkiye-backed militants are now spearheading the opposition advance on Homs, and Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria have effectively neutralized Assad’s most potent backer.

 


Al-Qaeda in Yemen says senior official killed in blast

Al-Qaeda in Yemen says senior official killed in blast
Updated 3 min 1 sec ago
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Al-Qaeda in Yemen says senior official killed in blast

Al-Qaeda in Yemen says senior official killed in blast
  • Abu Yusuf Al-Muhammadi Al-Hadrami died when a motorcycle packed with explosives detonated near where he worked in Marib

Dubai: A senior member of Al-Qaeda in Yemen has been killed in a bomb blast, according to a statement from the extremist group behind a string of high-profile attacks.
Abu Yusuf Al-Muhammadi Al-Hadrami died when a motorcycle packed with explosives detonated near where he worked in Marib, east of the rebel-held capital Sanaa.
Washington regards the group, known as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), as militant network’s most dangerous branch.
 


US aid freeze worsening Syria camp conditions: HRW

US aid freeze worsening Syria camp conditions: HRW
Updated 07 February 2025
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US aid freeze worsening Syria camp conditions: HRW

US aid freeze worsening Syria camp conditions: HRW
  • On January 24, four days after US President Donald Trump returned to power, NGOs linked to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) received a letter asking them to cease all activities

Beirut: Human Rights Watch warned Friday that US aid suspensions could worsen “life-threatening conditions” in camps holding relatives of suspected Daesh terrorists in northeast Syria, urging Washington to maintain support.
Kurdish-run camps and prisons in the region still hold around 56,000 people with alleged or perceived links to the Daesh group, years after the jihadists’ territorial defeat.
They include jihadist suspects locked up in prisons, as well as the wives and children of IS fighters held in the Al-Hol and Roj internment camps.
“The US government’s suspension of foreign aid to non-governmental organizations operating in these camps is exacerbating life-threatening conditions, risking further destabilization of a precarious security situation,” HRW said in a statement.
The rights group said the aid freeze could “limit provision of essential services for camp residents,” citing international humanitarian workers.
On January 24, four days after US President Donald Trump returned to power, NGOs linked to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) received a first letter asking them to cease all activities funded by the agency.
A week later, another letter, seen by AFP, authorized them to resume certain missions intended for “life-saving humanitarian assistance.”
The orders have left aid groups in the northeast “unsure how to proceed with deliveries of essential goods, like kerosene and water, further exacerbating pre-existing shortages,” the statement said.
“Secretary of State Marco Rubio should continue US assistance to organizations providing essential lifesaving assistance in northeast Syria,” the group said.
Following the January 24 order, HRW said Blumont, an organization responsible for camp management in Al Hol and Roj, suspended activities and withdrew all staff, including guards.
A few days later, the group received a two-week exemption allowing it to work.
Al-Hol is northeast Syria’s largest internment camp, with more than 40,000 detainees from 47 countries.
The vast majority of Al-Hol and Roj residents are women and children living in dire conditions.
HRW also said that “any political settlement in the region should include ending the arbitrary detention of those with alleged Daesh ties and their families.”
“Thousands of lives, many of them children, are hanging in the balance, and the indefensible status quo of the last six years should not be allowed to continue,” said Hiba Zayadin of Human Rights Watch.
The call comes amid talks between Syria’s new authorities and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) over the group’s future and as clashes rage in the north between the Kurdish-led group and Turkish-backed factions.


Doubling down on his proposal, Trump says Israel would hand over Gaza to the US after fighting is over

Doubling down on his proposal, Trump says Israel would hand over Gaza to the US after fighting is over
Updated 07 February 2025
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Doubling down on his proposal, Trump says Israel would hand over Gaza to the US after fighting is over

Doubling down on his proposal, Trump says Israel would hand over Gaza to the US after fighting is over
  • Trump has said he aims to take over and develop the Gaza Strip into the “Riviera of the Middle East”
  • Proposal comes just as Israel and Hamas expected to begin talks on second stage of ceasefire deal 

JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said on Thursday Israel would hand over Gaza to the United States after fighting was over and the enclave’s population was already resettled elsewhere, which he said meant no US troops would be needed on the ground.
A day after worldwide condemnation of Trump’s announcement that he aimed to take over and develop the Gaza Strip into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” Israel ordered its army to prepare to allow the “voluntary departure” of Gaza Palestinians.
Trump, who had previously declined to rule out deploying US troops to the small coastal territory, clarified his idea in comments on his Truth Social web platform.
“The Gaza Strip would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting,” he said. Palestinians “would have already been resettled in far safer and more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes, in the region.” He added: “No soldiers by the US would be needed!“
Earlier, amid a tide of support in Israel for what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump’s “remarkable” proposal, Defense Minister Israel Katz said he had ordered the army to prepare a plan to allow Gaza residents who wished to leave to exit the enclave voluntarily.
“I welcome President Trump’s bold plan. Gaza residents should be allowed the freedom to leave and emigrate, as is the norm around the world,” Katz said on X.
He said his plan would include exit options via land crossings, as well as special arrangements for departure by sea and air.
Trump, a real-estate-developer-turned-politician, sparked anger around the Middle East with his unexpected announcement on Tuesday, just as Israel and Hamas were expected to begin talks in Doha on the second stage of a ceasefire deal for Gaza, intended to open the way for a full withdrawal of Israeli forces, a further release of hostages and an end to a nearly 16-month-old war.

Regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia rebuffed the proposal outright and Jordan’s King Abdullah, who will meet Trump at the White House next week, said on Wednesday he rejected any attempts to annex land and displace Palestinians.
Egypt also weighed in, saying it would not be part of any proposal to displace Palestinians from neighboring Gaza, where residents reacted with fury to the suggestion.
“We will not sell our land for you, real estate developer. We are hungry, homeless, and desperate but we are not collaborators,” said Abdel Ghani, a father of four living with his family in the ruins of their Gaza City home. “If (Trump) wants to help, let him come and rebuild for us here.”
It was unclear whether Trump would go ahead with his proposal or, in keeping with his self-image as a shrewd dealmaker, has simply laid out an extreme position as a bargaining tactic. His first term in 2017-21 was replete with what critics said were over-the-top foreign policy pronouncements, many of which were never implemented.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that people would have to live elsewhere while Gaza was rebuilt. He did not say whether they would be able to return under Trump’s plan to develop the enclave, home to more than 2 million Palestinians.
Axios reported Rubio planned to visit the Middle East in mid-February with an itinerary that includes Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Displacement
What effect Trump’s shock proposal may have on the ceasefire talks remains unclear. Only 13 of a group of 33 Israeli hostages due for release in the first phase have so far been returned, with three more due to come out on Saturday. Five Thai hostages have also been released.
Hamas official Basem Naim accused Israel’s defense minister of trying to cover up “for a state that has failed to achieve any of its objectives in the war on Gaza,” and said Palestinians are too attached to their land to ever leave.
Displacement of Palestinians has been one of the most sensitive issues in the Middle East for decades. Forced or coerced displacement of a population under military occupation is a war crime, banned under the 1949 Geneva Conventions.

Details of how any such plan might work have been vague. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said different thinking was needed on Gaza’s future but that any departures would have to be voluntary and states would have to be willing to take them.
“We don’t have details yet, but we can talk about principles,” Saar told a press conference with his Italian counterpart Antonio Tajani. “Everything must be based on the free will of (the) individual and, on the other hand, of a will of a state that is ready to absorb,” he said.
A number of far-right Israeli politicians have openly called for Palestinians to be moved from Gaza and there was strong support for Trump’s push among both security hawks and the Jewish settler movement, which wants to reclaim land in Gaza used for Jewish settlements until 2005.
Giora Eiland, an Israeli former general who attracted wide attention in an earlier stage of the war with his “Generals’ Plan” for a forced displacement of people from northern Gaza, said Trump’s plan was logical and aid should not be allowed to reach displaced people returning to northern Gaza.
Israel’s military campaign has killed tens of thousands of people since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, cross-border attack on Israel touched off the war, and has forced Palestinians to repeatedly move around within Gaza in search of safety.
But many say they will never leave the enclave because they fear permanent displacement, like the “Nakba,” or catastrophe, when hundreds of thousands were dispossessed from homes in the war at the birth of the state of Israel in 1948.
Katz said countries that have opposed Israel’s military operations in Gaza should take in the Palestinians.
“Countries like Spain, Ireland, Norway, and others, which have levelled accusations and false claims against Israel over its actions in Gaza, are legally obligated to allow any Gaza resident to enter their territories,” he said.


Bodies of migrants recovered in two locations in Libya, security and Red Crescent say

Bodies of migrants recovered in two locations in Libya, security and Red Crescent say
Updated 07 February 2025
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Bodies of migrants recovered in two locations in Libya, security and Red Crescent say

Bodies of migrants recovered in two locations in Libya, security and Red Crescent say
  • 19 bodies — believed to be related to smuggling activites — were discovered in a mass grave in a farm some 441 km from Benghazi, say police
  • Libya's Red Crescent said the bodies of 10 other migrants were recovered after their boat sank off Dila port in the city of Zawiya, near Tripoli

BENGHAZI, Libya: At least 29 bodies of migrants have been recovered in two locations in the southeast and west of Libya, a security directorate and the Libyan Red Crescent said on Thursday.
The Alwahat district Security Directorate said in a statement that 19 bodies were discovered in a mass grave in a farm in Jikharra area, some 441 km from Benghazi, Libya's second largest city, and said the deaths were related to smuggling activites.
The directorate posted on Facebook pictures showing police officers and Jalu Red Crescent volunteers placing the bodies in black plastic bags.
Separately, the Libyan Red Crescent said on Facebook late Thursday evening that its volunteers recovered the bodies of 10 migrants earlier in the day after their boat sank off Dila port in the city of Zawiya, some 40 km from Tripoli, the capital.
The Red Crescent posted pictures showing volunteers on the dockside placing bodies in white plastic bags, while one volunteer put numbers on one of the bags.
"In the presence of the Public Prosecution Office in Jalu, the directorate was able to recover 19 bodies resulting from smuggling and illegal migration activities in Jikharra area, belonging to a known smuggling network," the directorate said.
It said the bodies were found in a total of three graves on the farm, with one grave holding one body, a second grave holding four bodies, and the remaining 14 bodies found in the third grave.
"The bodies were all referred to a forensic doctor to conduct the necessary tests," the directorate said.
Libya has turned into a transit route for migrants fleeing conflict and poverty to Europe across the Mediterranean.
At the end of January, Alwahat Criminal Investigation Department said it had freed 263 migrants from different Sub-Saharan nationalities, saying they were "being held by a smuggling gang in extremely poor human and health conditions."


Syria’s ‘Caesar’ whistleblower unveils identity

Syria’s ‘Caesar’ whistleblower unveils identity
Updated 07 February 2025
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Syria’s ‘Caesar’ whistleblower unveils identity

Syria’s ‘Caesar’ whistleblower unveils identity
  • First Lt. Farid Al-Madhan was the former head of the forensic evidence department at the military police in Damascus

BEIRUT: A Syrian whistleblower, who smuggled tens of thousands of pictures depicting torture under Bashar Assad, on Thursday revealed his identity for the first time, two months after the longtime ruler was toppled.
“I am First Lt. Farid Al-Madhan, the (former) head of the forensic evidence department at the military police in Damascus, known as Caesar,” he said in a televised interview with Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera.
Identified at the time only as a Syrian military photographer under the pseudonym Caesar, he had fled the country in 2013, taking with him some 55,000 graphic images taken between 2011 and 2013.
Describing himself during the interview as a “son of a free Syria,” he said he was from the city of Daraa, “the cradle of the Syrian revolution.”
Following the outbreak of Syria’s civil war in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests, he said he was tasked with “taking pictures of victims of detention.”
These included “old men, women and children, who were detained at security checkpoints in Damascus, and from protest squares that called for freedom and dignity,” said Madhan, who added that he currently resides in France.
“They were detained, tortured and killed in bloody, systematic ways and their bodies were transferred to military morgues to be photographed and taken to mass graves,” he continued.
He said he postponed his defection from the government forces and fleeing the country in order to be able to “collect the largest number of pictures documenting and incriminating the Syrian regime apparatuses of committing crimes against humanity.”
He said the pictures were smuggled in a flash drive that he sometimes hid in his socks or a bundle of bread to escape government security checkpoints or those of the opposition.
The photos, authenticated by experts, show corpses tortured and starved to death in Syrian prisons.
Some people had their eyes gouged out. The photos showed emaciated bodies, people with wounds on the back or stomach, and also a picture of hundreds of corpses in a shed surrounded by plastic bags used for burials.
Assad’s government said only that the pictures were “political.”
But Caesar testified to a US Congress committee and his photographs inspired a 2020 US law which imposed economic sanctions on Syria and judicial proceedings in Europe against Assad’s entourage.
Germany, the Netherlands and France have since 2022 convicted several top officials from the Syrian intelligence service and militias.