Saudi Arabia’s economy to expand by 3.7% in 2025: Mastercard Economics Institute

Saudi Arabia’s economy to expand by 3.7% in 2025: Mastercard Economics Institute
The Kingdom’s robust growth in the non-oil sector signifies the nation’s steadily progressing economic diversification journey. Shutterstock
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Updated 17 December 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s economy to expand by 3.7% in 2025: Mastercard Economics Institute

Saudi Arabia’s economy to expand by 3.7% in 2025: Mastercard Economics Institute
  • Kingdom’s robust growth in the non-oil sector signifies the nation’s steadily progressing economic diversification journey
  • Tourism sector is expected to remain a bright spot for the economies in the GCC region

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product is expected to grow 3.7 percent in 2025, driven by a rise in the Kingdom’s non-oil activities, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, Mastercard Economics Institute said Saudi Arabia’s rapid expansion of its GDP will outperform the projected global average, which is estimated at 3.2 percent in 2025. 

The Kingdom’s robust growth in the non-oil sector signifies the nation’s steadily progressing economic diversification journey aimed at reducing reliance on crude revenues. 

According to the analysis, Saudi Arabia’s projected economic growth in 2025 is higher than that of major players, including the US, Germany, and Japan, as well as the UK, France, and Australia. 

“With robust non-oil economic activity and continued investments aligned with Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is set to maintain its strong growth trajectory, outpacing global markets,” said Khatija Haque, chief economist of Mastercard for the Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa region. 

She added: “As we move into 2025, a year shaped by evolving fiscal and monetary policies, the Kingdom’s diversification efforts and supportive economic reforms will solidify its position as a key driver of regional economic expansion. These structural shifts will continue to redefine economic landscapes, charting new pathways for sustainable growth.”

In November, a report released by the International Monetary Fund projected that Saudi Arabia’s economy is expected to remain resilient, with the Kingdom’s GDP set to expand by 1.5 percent and 4.6 percent in 2024 and 2025, respectively. 

In September, another study released by credit-rating agency S&P Global said that Saudi Arabia’s GDP will expand by 1.4 percent in 2024 before accelerating to 5.3 percent in 2025. 

The Mastercard analysis revealed economic diversification efforts in the Kingdom will continue in 2025 as the government leverages strong balance sheets to finance investment in infrastructure. 

The report added that private sector investments should also benefit from lower interest rates, supporting employment and domestic consumption. 

Regionally, the tourism sector is expected to remain a bright spot for the economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region.

“The GCC’s strong push to develop its tourism offerings has positioned it as one of the fastest-growing destinations in the world. In addition, the strength of the region’s US dollar-pegged currencies is fueling the demand for outbound travel,” said Mastercard Economics Institute. 

Steady inflation levels

The Mastercard Economics Institute further projected that Saudi Arabia’s inflation is expected to stay at a healthy level of 2 percent in 2025, while consumer spending in the Kingdom is projected to expand by 4.5 percent. 

Earlier this month, a report released by Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics revealed that the Kingdom’s annual inflation rate reached 2 percent in November compared to the same month in 2023. 

Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate is one of the lowest in the Middle East region and globally, indicating the Kingdom’s effective measures to stabilize the economy and combat global price pressures. 

In October, the World Bank projected that Saudi Arabia’s inflation level is expected to stay at 2.1 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025, lower than the Gulf Cooperation Council average. 

Globally, Mastercard Economics Institute projected that the average inflation level will remain at 3.2 percent next year. 

“Inflation across major economies eased significantly in 2024, underpinned by lower prices of durable goods and reduced inflation for non-durable goods. While upside risks to good prices remain due to tariffs, moderating wage growth is expected to decrease services inflation,” said the report. 

Rising female workforce and population growth

The study highlighted that population growth in the Kingdom also acts as an essential driver for economic activity and, particularly, private consumption. 

According to the analysis, inbound migration into Saudi Arabia has greatly enriched the human capital of the country, with the next inflow of migrants contributing 4.9 percent of the population growth between 2019 and 2023. 

In November, a report released by the BlackRock Investment Institute also echoed similar views, highlighting that Saudi Arabia’s young and growing workforce and abundant natural resources could play a crucial role in determining the Kingdom’s economic growth in the future. 

Mastercard added that the participation of women in Saudi Arabia’s labor force is growing, driven by enabling government policies, increasing job creation in female-dominated sectors, and flexible work arrangements. 

The Kingdom, aligned with Vision 2030 goals, had initially targeted 30 percent of women’s participation in the workforce by the end of this decade. 

Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh in October, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan said that Saudi Arabia aims to achieve 40 percent female workforce participation by the end of this decade, surpassing its Vision 2030 target of 30 percent. 

“The latest World Bank data shows that women’s representation in the Saudi workforce grew from 18 percent in 2017 to 34.5 percent in 2023. This marked increase is mainly due to the easing of social and other restrictions in the Kingdom in recent years, driven by its ambitious Vision 2030 that seeks to build a thriving economy where everyone has the opportunity to succeed,” said Mastercard Economics Institute. 

It added: “Women’s labor force participation likely reflects the disproportionate job creation in female-dominated sectors, such as health care and education. In addition, the rise of remote work and the flexibility it brings tends to help women, who are often still the primary caregivers, as it makes it easier to raise children while working.” 

Global outlook

According to the analysis, the UAE is expected to witness an economic expansion of 5 percent in 2025, while inflation is set to average 2.5 percent. 

India’s GDP is projected to expand by 6.6 percent next year, while the economy of the US and the UK is expected to grow by 2.3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. 

France is expected to witness an economic growth of 0.8 percent in 2025, while the economies of Germany, Italy, and Canada are set to expand by 0.6 percent, 0.7 percent, and 1.8 percent, respectively. 


Saudi Arabia’s property market set for growth with billions in new projects

Saudi Arabia’s property market set for growth with billions in new projects
Updated 29 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s property market set for growth with billions in new projects

Saudi Arabia’s property market set for growth with billions in new projects
  • The largest PIF projects in the Kingdom are in the Asir region
  • At least 50 percent of the country’s tourism is expected be centered in Riyadh

RIYADH: The Saudi real estate landscape is poised for substantial growth, as industry leaders, policymakers, and investors gathered at the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh to unveil major developments in property investment and tourism.

Highlighting the Kingdom’s ambitious Vision 2030 objectives, Asir Gov. Prince Turki bin Talal revealed the Public Investment Fund is spearheading nine major projects in the region, with four already launched and five in progress. “The largest PIF projects in the Kingdom are in the Asir region,” the governor said, emphasizing the region’s pivotal role in Saudi Arabia’s evolving property market.

The governor highlighted the region’s growing hospitality sector, with between 6,000 and 8,000 approved hotel rooms currently available. 

He also announced that Abha’s World Cup bid had been officially recognized as the best in the Kingdom by the Ministry of Sports. 

Meanwhile, Al-Ahsa Gov. Prince Saud bin Talal unveiled plans to expand the region’s hospitality offerings. “Our pipeline includes over seven or eight hotels and more than 25 rural lodges, including three five-star hotels: Hilton, Radisson Blu, and Hilton Garden Inn,” he said. Saudi Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb noted the rapid expansion of the Kingdom’s hospitality industry, with hotel room capacity expected to grow from 475,000 to 675,000 by 2030. Al-Khateeb also discussed the impact of major infrastructure projects, such as the King Salman International Airport expansion and the launch of Riyadh Air, which are central to the Kingdom’s hyper-tourism strategy. 

He forecast that at least 50 percent of the country’s tourism will be centered in Riyadh, but emphasized efforts to keep the capital’s share from exceeding 80-90 percent. In the financial sector, Mohammed El-Kuwaiz, chairman of the Capital Market Authority, discussed the increasing role of real estate in the Kingdom’s investment market. 

“Around 20 percent of the 55 initial public offerings currently under review involve real estate companies,” he revealed. 

El-Kuwaiz emphasized the importance of financial stability and transparency for companies looking to list, advising them to treat investors as partners. 

In a significant move, he also announced that listed companies owning properties in Makkah and Madinah can now welcome foreign investors immediately.


SAMA permits full public launch of STC Bank in digitalization push

SAMA permits full public launch of STC Bank in digitalization push
Updated 28 January 2025
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SAMA permits full public launch of STC Bank in digitalization push

SAMA permits full public launch of STC Bank in digitalization push

RIYADH: The Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, has authorized STC Bank to launch its full operations in Saudi Arabia.

As the first licensed digital bank in the Kingdom, STC Bank’s approval marks a significant step in SAMA’s ongoing strategy to accelerate digital transformation and enhance competitiveness in the banking sector.

At the same time, the move ensures the safeguarding of financial stability, according to a press statement from the central bank.

This milestone underscores the growing dynamism and potential of Saudi Arabia’s digital economy, while also highlighting SAMA’s efforts to create a regulatory framework that fosters innovation within the financial sector.

“SAMA is committed to strengthening the resilience of the banking sector, boosting its appeal, and increasing its role in achieving Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s broader national objectives. This includes empowering entrepreneurs and financial institutions to deliver innovative financial services to the Saudi market,” the central bank said.

The approval follows a significant step taken in April 2024, when SAMA formally approved the transition of STC Pay — the mobile financial services arm of Saudi Telecom Co. — to STC Bank. Following a nine-month beta launch, STC Bank is now poised to begin its full banking operations.

Additionally, in December 2024, SAMA also gave the green light to D360 Bank, another digital financial institution, allowing it to begin its operations in the Kingdom.


Al-Habtoor Group halts investment plans in Lebanon amid growing instability

Al-Habtoor Group halts investment plans in Lebanon amid growing instability
Updated 28 January 2025
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Al-Habtoor Group halts investment plans in Lebanon amid growing instability

Al-Habtoor Group halts investment plans in Lebanon amid growing instability

DUBAI: UAE-based business conglomerate Al-Habtoor Group has abandoned its plans to reenter the Lebanese market, citing ongoing “unrest and instability” caused by armed militias.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, Khalaf Al-Habtoor, chairman of the group, explained that recent developments had deeply shaken his optimism.

“My team and I had been diligently preparing to launch new projects and expand existing investments in Lebanon, encouraged by promising signs such as the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun as president and the nomination of Nawaf Salam as prime minister. Both individuals embody integrity, credibility, and respect, instilling renewed hope among the Lebanese people — and investors like myself — for the country’s future,” the statement read.

However, he said that the continued dominance of armed militias, particularly what he described as “Shiite militias”, and the “absence of rule of law” have made it impossible for investors to proceed with confidence.

Tensions escalated with Hezbollah supporters holding rallies in Beirut, including in Christian-majority neighborhoods, further raising sectarian divisions. The protests followed the return of Shiite residents to southern Lebanon after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was recently extended.

In his statement, Al-Habtoor lamented the lack of decisive action from Lebanese authorities, including the army and the Ministry of Defense, in addressing these disturbances, noting that the situation was only worsening.

Unless the new government takes a firm stance against those working to destabilize the country, hopes for a “new Lebanon” will remain unfulfilled, he said.

Al-Habtoor clarified that the decision to pull out was made after careful analysis and close monitoring of the situation. As a result, neither he, his family, nor any group managers would be traveling to Lebanon.

Earlier this month, and following the wave of optimism that followed the election of President Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, Al-Habtoor told Arab News in an interview that his group intended to move forward with plans to reopen its five-story mall in Beirut and relaunch the Habtoorland amusement park in Jamhour, contingent on Lebanon’s government delivering the promised security and stability measures.

The group, a multibillion-dollar global conglomerate, has diverse interests spanning luxury hotels, shopping malls, and more. As of January last year, its investments in Lebanon were estimated at around $1 billion.


Experts predict suburban boom, smarter housing designs in Saudi Arabia

Experts predict suburban boom, smarter housing designs in Saudi Arabia
Updated 28 January 2025
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Experts predict suburban boom, smarter housing designs in Saudi Arabia

Experts predict suburban boom, smarter housing designs in Saudi Arabia

RIYADH: The rise of community living and the increased accessibility of suburbs, driven by advancements in transportation, are transforming real estate trends in Saudi Arabia, experts say.

At the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh on Jan. 28, Khaled Elsehamy, chief development officer for real estate at the National Housing Co., highlighted the significant shift in the Kingdom's real estate sector. According to Elsehamy, more people are now viewing suburban areas as attractive living options.

During a panel discussion, Elsehamy also noted a growing preference among Saudi residents for smaller housing units, moving away from the traditional multigenerational homes.

“Suburbs are becoming increasingly appealing,” Elsehamy said. “People now find areas outside the central cities more attractive due to their convenience, accessibility, and proximity to essential services. They can easily connect with the city whenever they wish.”

He continued: “The rising costs of utilities, furniture, and maintenance have led people to seek smaller, more efficient homes. There is a growing demand for durable, modular designs that offer long-term savings while meeting modern needs.”

Elsehamy’s remarks came just a day after NHC CEO Mohammad Al-Buty announced that lower interest rates in 2025 will help the company surpass its 2024 sales targets. This aligns with NHC’s broader ambition to become the leading real estate developer in the region and stay at the forefront of the industry.

Elsehamy also discussed the shifting mindset of Saudi homebuyers, noting a stark contrast to traditional purchasing habits. “In the past, people bought homes for their children and grandchildren. That’s no longer the case,” he explained.

“Today, people are looking for homes that fit different life stages. They think, ‘I’ll live in this house now, move to a bigger one later, and eventually downsize to a smaller place by the beach in 20 years.’”

The NHC official emphasized that community living is driving new trends in Saudi Arabia’s housing market. “Community living allows residents to interact more with those around them, and it often includes amenities like community centers where people can work, especially those with remote work options.”

Echoing these sentiments, Andrew Baum, emeritus professor at Oxford, also spoke during the panel, highlighting how modern homebuyers prioritize accessibility over location.

“Previously, location was everything in real estate,” said Baum. “But today, accessibility has become the key factor. The new metro in Riyadh is set to significantly impact property values, opening up newly accessible areas.”

Oussama Kabbani, group chief Development officer at ROSHN, emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector has reached a global standard post-Vision 2030. Reflecting on ROSHN’s approach to enhancing community living standards, Kabbani explained that understanding customer needs is central to their success.

“It all comes down to data and actively listening to your customers,” he said. “We conduct numerous surveys online and engage directly with residents to understand what’s missing. We focus a lot on creating activities for children, with educational and cultural events to keep them engaged.”

He continued: “We also place a strong emphasis on sports. It's not complicated — you don’t need to spend a fortune to make people happy. The key is knowing what makes them happy and delivering it with quality.”

Kabbani also noted the growing sophistication of the community real estate sector. He predicted that investments in senior living spaces, alongside data centers and healthcare facilities, would soon become more prominent.

“Our communities are designed with schools, community centers, playgrounds, and more,” Kabbani added. “When people choose to live in our communities, they’re not just buying a home — they’re buying a lifestyle. And we’re committed to ensuring that lifestyle is truly lived.”

During the session, Nasser Al-Kadi, chief investment officer at Awqaf Investment, praised the recent regulatory reforms in Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector, noting their positive impact on the market.

He emphasized the importance of embracing technological advancements to further modernize the sector. “The regulatory changes in Saudi Arabia have not only attracted external capital but also increased transparency within the industry,” Al-Kadi said.

He continued: “Technology isn’t just a tool for optimization — it’s a driver of growth and innovation. We haven’t yet seen the full potential of these technologies in the Kingdom’s real estate sector.”

Robert J. Di Franco, chief development officer at Roaya Co., also highlighted the growing influence of technology, stating that innovation is fundamentally reshaping every aspect of the real estate industry.

“Innovation and technology are shaping everything we do — from pre-acquisition phases to market analysis, accessing real-time transactional data, to how we manage construction projects and facility handovers. Technology is now integrated into every part of our process,” Di Franco said.


Foreign investments set to revive Makkah’s property market: Ladun CEO

Foreign investments set to revive Makkah’s property market: Ladun CEO
Updated 28 January 2025
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Foreign investments set to revive Makkah’s property market: Ladun CEO

Foreign investments set to revive Makkah’s property market: Ladun CEO

RIYADH: Saudi construction firm Ladun Investment Co. expects a surge in Makkah’s real estate sector following a key ruling by the market regulator allowing foreign investment in Saudi-listed companies owning property in the holy cities. 

In an interview with Arab News at the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh, Hassan Al-Hazmi, CEO of the Tadawul-listed firm, emphasized that the new regulations are poised to drive investor confidence in Makkah’s market, which has faced stagnation in recent years. 

On the event’s opening day, the Kingdom’s Capital Market Authority announced that the Makkah and Madinah real estate markets will now be open to foreign investors. However, investments are limited to shares or convertible debt instruments of listed companies, with total non-Saudi ownership — individuals and legal entities — capped at 49 percent of a company’s shares. 

The decision is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Saudi Arabia’s capital market and support the Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda. 

“As Mohammed El-Kuwaiz, chairman of the CMA, mentioned yesterday (Jan. 27), the regulations have been studied for more than three years. He said they were supposed to be approved two years ago but were delayed to make them more holistic. There is now a big study regarding foreign investors having ownership in Makkah, Madinah, and the Kingdom as a whole,” said Al-Hazmi. 

He said Ladun is focused on Makkah and anticipates growth. “We already manage and own assets in Makkah worth more than SR3.2 billion ($853.1 million).” 

Al-Hazmi noted that Makkah’s real estate sector had faced stagnation since 2014, particularly due to the impact of COVID-19 on religious tourism and travel. However, he believes that the sector is on the brink of recovery. 

“We already see signs of recovery — companies owning assets in Makkah are experiencing a rise in their share prices. This is very positive, and we anticipated this shift and planned accordingly,” he added. 

Ladun is also focused on localizing its workforce and increasing Saudi employment opportunities, aligning with government initiatives. 

“Just today, we signed an agreement with the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing regarding human capital and how we are going to localize more Saudis. At the managerial level, including our C-suite, we have Saudis,” Al-Hazmi said. 

He added: “In middle management, we have many young men and women who are part of our company, and they are truly giving us great empathy and trust in ourselves to move forward. This is one of the pillars of Vision 2030.” 

In November, Ladun announced a new investment in Jabal Omar Development Co. in partnership with Musharaka Capital, acquiring a land plot worth SR600 million with an expected revenue of approximately SR2 billion. This investment is viewed as a major step in reinforcing Ladun’s presence in Makkah’s evolving real estate market. 

Al-Hazmi also highlighted the broader impact of Vision 2030 on the Saudi real estate market, particularly in Makkah, which he sees as a prime beneficiary. 

“Stability brings prosperity, and Saudi has enjoyed stability for 100 years now, that brings prosperity. We see it. We see it around the region,” he said. 

Referring to comments made by Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Hazmi added: “Larry mentioned that if we take the US aside, we will find the most stable area in the world the GCC countries. Prosperity will be there.” 

With a focus on sustainable expansion, strategic investments, and market recovery, Ladun Investment Co. remains optimistic about its role in shaping Makkah’s future real estate landscape.