‘Paradigm shift’ as GCC urban population to surge 30% by 2030: Arthur D. Little

‘Paradigm shift’ as GCC urban population to surge 30% by 2030: Arthur D. Little
The study revealed that Saudi Arabia is leading this transition. Shutterstock
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Updated 23 December 2024
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‘Paradigm shift’ as GCC urban population to surge 30% by 2030: Arthur D. Little

‘Paradigm shift’ as GCC urban population to surge 30% by 2030: Arthur D. Little
  • 90% of GCC residents will live in cities by 2050, providing a $150 billion economic regional opportunity, report said
  • Surging demand for housing and infrastructure in the region also calls for community-driven strategies to adopt a more inclusive approach, it added

RIYADH: Urban populations across the Gulf Cooperation Council region are projected to grow 30 percent from 2020 to 2030, increasing demand for housing, infrastructure, and inclusive development, analysts say.

In its latest report, international management consulting firm Arthur D. Little said that 90 percent of GCC residents will live in cities by 2050.

The study revealed that Saudi Arabia is leading this transition, with the Kingdom eyeing to build 500,000 new housing units to meet the rising demand. 

Saudi Arabia is undertaking a dozen giga-projects to address the needs of its growing urban population. These developments are key to the government’s economic diversification goals, forming a core component of Vision 2030.

“We’re witnessing a paradigm shift. This isn’t about building cities — it’s about creating living, breathing economic ecosystems that grow from within local communities,” said Rajesh Duneja, partner at Arthur D. Little. 

Driven by Vision 2030 objectives and its Quality of Life Program, Saudi Arabia is striving for three of its cities to be recognized among the top 100 in the world for livability.

The consulting firm added that the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts are not just a construction initiative but a catalyst for opportunity, education, and long-term economic contribution, with Saudi Arabia embedding workforce development, small and medium enterprises, and local engagement in this journey. 

Earlier this month, a report released by real estate and investment management firm JLL said that the ongoing urban infrastructure development in Saudi Arabia is creating new hotspots for growth, driven by a surge in tourism and economic diversification efforts. 

In July, an analysis by British property consultancy Savills said that the Kingdom’s capital city, Riyadh, is poised to be one of the fastest-growing metropolizes in the world over the next decade, driven by the growth of the country’s mega projects. 

In July, a report released by Statista also outlined urbanization progress in Arab world nations, with Kuwait already having a 100 percent urban population in 2023. 

Statista added that 99.35 percent of people in Qatar live in urban areas, followed by Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, with 89.87 percent, 87.78 percent, and 84.95 percent, respectively. 

The Arthur D. Little report said the surging demand for housing and infrastructure in the region also calls for community-driven strategies to adopt a more inclusive approach, as traditional infrastructure models alone cannot meet the scale of this demand. 

“The pace of urbanization across the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, is unprecedented. To ensure that ambitious goals, such as those embodied in Vision 2030, are reached, it is vitally important that communities participate in, and feel part of, the changes,” said Arthur D. Little. 

The analysis added that these community-focused strategies are not only enhancing social impact but also driving economic growth. 

The management consulting firm projected that community-focused initiatives could support the region’s 4 percent gross domestic product growth trajectory, reinforcing its economic resilience amid global challenges. 

“This is not just urban development. It’s the emergence of a new economic blueprint that places human potential at its core,” said Maurice Salem, principal at Arthur D. Little Middle East. 

According to the study, the region’s demographic profile also strengthens the necessity for a community-driven approach. 

“With only 3 percent of the population in Saudi Arabia over the age of 65, the Middle East has an unparalleled opportunity to leverage its young, dynamic workforce,” said the report. 

It added: “When integrated with local talent, cultural heritage, and SME development, infrastructure projects become engines of socio-economic transformation.”


Oil Updates — crude wavers as markets await clarity on Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico

Oil Updates — crude wavers as markets await clarity on Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico
Updated 30 January 2025
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Oil Updates — crude wavers as markets await clarity on Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico

Oil Updates — crude wavers as markets await clarity on Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico

TOKYO: Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as markets braced for threatened tariffs by US President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the two largest suppliers of crude oil to the US, and awaited a meeting of OPEC+ producers.

Brent crude futures were down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $76.51 a barrel by 7:11 a.m. Saudi time. US crude futures were little changed at 2 cents up, or 0.03 percent, to $72.64. US crude futures had settled at their lowest price this year on Wednesday.

Trump still plans to make good on his promise to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday.

Trump’s nominee to run the Commerce Department, Howard Lutnick, said on Wednesday that Canada and Mexico can avoid the tariffs if they act swiftly to close their borders to fentanyl, while vowing to slow China’s advancement in artificial intelligence.

On the demand front, crude oil stockpiles in the US rose by 3.46 million barrels last week, roughly in line with analysts’ estimate for a rise of 3.19 million barrels, as winter storms that swept the country last week hit demand.

On the supply side, crude oil exports from Russia’s western ports in February are set to fall by 8 percent from the January plan as Moscow boosts refining, traders said and Reuters calculations showed, after the latest US sanctions squeezed crude exports.

Investors are also looking ahead to a ministerial meeting by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together called OPEC+, scheduled for Feb. 3.

The OPEC+ group of leading oil producers is set to discuss Trump’s efforts to raise US oil production and take a joint stance on the matter, Kazakhstan said on Wednesday. Russia is also a member of the OPEC+ group.

Trump has publicly called on OPEC to lower oil prices, saying doing so would end the conflict in Ukraine. He has also set up an agenda of maximizing the US oil and gas production, already the world’s largest.
However, analysts believe a price war between the US and OPEC+ is unlikely as it may hurt both.

“A price war with the US would involve OPEC+ producers maximizing their output to undercut prices and drive shale production into decline,” analysts at BMI, a Fitch Group division, said in a note.

They predict Brent crude oil prices may go down below $50 as OPEC+ can deploy over 5 million barrels of oil per day in its spare capacity, prompting a fall in the US shale oil production along the prices. 


Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 4.4%: GASTAT

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 4.4%: GASTAT
Updated 37 min 54 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 4.4%: GASTAT

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 4.4%: GASTAT

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product saw an annual expansion of 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking its highest growth in two years, official data showed.

According to flash estimates from the General Authority for Statistics, the Kingdom’s non-oil activities grew by 4.6 percent year on year in the three months to the end of December, reflecting ongoing efforts to diversify the economy.

The report also noted that oil activities rose by 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2023, while government activities expanded by 2.2 percent.

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth aligns with the broader Middle East trend, where countries are steadily advancing economic diversification.

The UAE’s central bank projects 4 percent GDP growth in 2024, while Bahrain and Qatar reported year-on-year expansions of 2.1 percent and 2 percent, respectively, in the third quarter. Qatar’s full-year GDP grew by 1.7 percent, driven by a 1.9 percent rise in non-hydrocarbon activities.

Reflection on the Saudi figures, GASTAT said: “The results also showed that seasonally adjusted real GDP increased by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of the same year.” 

Strengthening the non-oil sector remains a key goal under the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 as efforts continue to reduce the dependence on oil revenues and drive sustainable economic growth.

Compared to the third quarter, non-oil activities in the Kingdom grew by 1.3 percent, while government activities rose by 0.3 percent. However, oil activities witnessed a quarterly decline of 1.5 percent.

For the full year 2024, Saudi Arabia’s GDP expanded by 1.3 percent compared to 2023. This increase was primarily driven by a 4.3 percent rise in non-oil activities, underscoring the Kingdom’s focus on economic diversification.

Government activities recorded a 2.6 percent annual increase, while oil activities contracted by 4.5 percent due to OPEC+ output cuts, which have impacted production levels.

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund projected that Saudi Arabia’s economy will grow by 3.3 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026. These numbers reflect shifts in the global economic landscape, with oil production adjustments playing a key role in influencing near-term growth expectations.

A December report from Mastercard Economics also highlighted the robust expansion of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector. The analysis forecast that the Kingdom’s GDP will grow by 3.7 percent year on year in 2025, largely driven by increased non-oil activities.

The Mastercard report added that economic diversification efforts will remain a priority in 2025, with the government leveraging its strong fiscal position to finance infrastructure development and new investment opportunities.


Clinton praises Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 for unlocking human potential 

Clinton praises Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 for unlocking human potential 
Updated 29 January 2025
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Clinton praises Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 for unlocking human potential 

Clinton praises Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 for unlocking human potential 

RIYADH: Former US President Bill Clinton praised Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiatives on Wednesday, highlighting their role in creating new opportunities for individuals to realize their full potential.

Speaking on the final day of the Real Estate Future Forum in a panel titled “A President’s Perspective: Bill Clinton at RFF 2025,” the 42nd president of the US lauded the Kingdom’s efforts to unlock human potential and foster inclusive development.

“The things that Saudi Arabia is doing now will provide more opportunities for more people to live up to their fullest capacity, and I think this is important,” Clinton said.

He emphasized the importance of Vision 2030 as a strategic framework for sustainable growth and encouraged other countries to take note.

“I think it (Vision 2030) is very important and it’s worth investing in,” Clinton remarked, adding, “I think that we, Americans, should come here and study this 2030 plan and ask ourselves what is our equivalent.”

Clinton expressed a long-standing admiration for Saudi Arabia, stating, “I’ve always felt drawn to this country.” He highlighted the development of human potential as a key driver of the future, adding, “I think that the ability to develop human potential will determine the future.”

Reflecting on his recent visit to Diriyah, a historic district undergoing significant transformation, the former president described the experience as remarkable. “I visited Diriyah last night and I think it was breathtaking,” he said.

Addressing the Saudi youth, Clinton underscored the value of career autonomy in a rapidly evolving job market, acknowledging the various opportunities the government offers to young Saudis.

“It’s a gift to be able to decide what to do with your working hours,” he told the youth, reinforcing the importance of choice and purpose in their professional lives.

Clinton’s remarks at RFF 2025 reaffirmed his admiration for Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030, positioning the Kingdom as a model for economic diversification and social progress on the global stage.

The event, which took place from Jan. 27, was themed “Future for Humanity: Shaping Dreams into Reality.”

Held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Riyadh, it brought together over 300 speakers from 85 countries to discuss the future of real estate.

The forum served as a global hub for industry leaders, policymakers, and investors as Saudi Arabia moves forward with its vision for a diversified, innovation-driven economy.


Diriyah seeing strong real estate growth, planning mid-level housing units: Group CEO

Diriyah seeing strong real estate growth, planning mid-level housing units: Group CEO
Updated 29 January 2025
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Diriyah seeing strong real estate growth, planning mid-level housing units: Group CEO

Diriyah seeing strong real estate growth, planning mid-level housing units: Group CEO

RIYADH: The Diriyah project is experiencing strong success in residential real estate sales and is now targeting mid-level buyers, said a top executive. 

On the final day of the Real Estate Future Forum, Jerry Inzerillo, group CEO of Diriyah Co., highlighted the rapid growth of the area’s residential and commercial property market, emphasizing the strong demand for homes.

He also spoke about the continued expansion of Diriyah’s business landscape, with plans to open Zallal in April, which will feature 23 new businesses, further boosting the area’s appeal. 

These developments are a key part of a strategy to position the destination — one of Saudi Arabia’s five giga-projects supported by the Public Investment Fund — as both a residential and commercial hub, contributing to the Kingdom’s economic transformation under Vision 2030. 

“I’m thrilled to say that we’re selling a lot of our residential real estate,” Inzerillo said, adding that Diriyah will offer “several hundred units for the mid-level buyer” at the upcoming Cityscape event in November, catering to a broader range of potential homeowners. 

Beyond real estate, Inzerillo talked up the area’s historical and cultural importance to Saudi Arabia, saying: “Diriyah is the house of Al-Saud, the source of our national identity and pride. 

“What makes us unique is that we are the celebration of culture and heritage.” 

Inzerillo also discussed Diriyah’s spiritual importance, noting that one of its crowning achievements is providing a welcoming environment for religious travelers from around the world. 

“One of the greatest things in the world is to allow 2 billion Muslims to feel welcomed to fulfill pilgrimage to the two holy cities,” he said. 

The CEO shared that 14 percent of his workforce, now totaling 3,200 employees, are from Diriyah’s local community. 

Inzerillo noted the completion of 9 km of parks, which contributes to the area’s green spaces and makes it more attractive to residents and visitors. He also highlighted construction safety milestones, stating that Diriyah had logged 209 million construction man-hours without a fatality. 

Reflecting on the Kingdom’s increasing international appeal, Inzerillo said: “People from all over the world are coming to see Saudi, and they’re going back happy.” 

The CEO concluded by expressing confidence in the Kingdom’s future capabilities, stating: “What I would say for sure by 2030, even though I believe it now, is that the Kingdom, with its leadership now, is capable of hosting any global event in any way and be the best host for that thing.”


GCC trade set to grow 5.5% annually, reaching $2.3 trillion by 2033: BCG report

GCC trade set to grow 5.5% annually, reaching $2.3 trillion by 2033: BCG report
Updated 29 January 2025
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GCC trade set to grow 5.5% annually, reaching $2.3 trillion by 2033: BCG report

GCC trade set to grow 5.5% annually, reaching $2.3 trillion by 2033: BCG report
  • China is set to emerge as the largest growth market for GCC trade, with exchange volumes increasing by $88 billion
  • Japan follows closely, with an expected increase of $46 billion

RIYADH: The Gulf Cooperation Council’s trade sector is set to grow at an annual rate of 5.5 percent, reaching $2.3 trillion by 2033, according to a new report by Boston Consulting Group.

The BCG analysis highlights a robust outlook for GCC trade, driven by significant expansion across multiple corridors.

The region’s non-hydrocarbon trade is also set to expand by 3.5 percent annually, reinforcing the success of economic diversification efforts.

Global trade is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.9 percent annually through 2033, according to the report.

The expansion is driven by evolving partnerships and advancements in supply chain technology. As economies adapt to post-COVID-19 disruptions and regulatory changes, new trade corridors are emerging, particularly between the Global South and established markets. The shift creates significant opportunities for regions like the GCC to enhance their roles in global commerce.

Commenting on the developments, Rami Rafih, managing director and partner at BCG, said the reconfiguration of global trade flows presents a transformative opportunity for the GCC.

“As trade routes evolve, the region is not merely a geographic intermediary but a central orchestrator of emerging trade patterns,” he said, adding: “The GCC’s proactive investment in trade capabilities positions it to shape the future of global commerce.”

China is set to emerge as the largest growth market for GCC trade, with exchange volumes increasing by $88 billion at a compound annual growth rate of 5.7 percent.

Japan follows closely, with an expected increase of $46 billion, reflecting a 9.4 percent annual growth rate.

The report, titled “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade,” underscores the GCC’s strategic positioning as a vital link between East and West, benefiting from shifting global patterns.

With China’s trade with the Global South projected to increase by $1.25 trillion and transactions between developing nations expected to rise by $673 billion by 2033, the GCC is set to capture a substantial share of this evolving landscape.

Beyond its traditional reliance on hydrocarbon exports, the GCC’s non-oil trade is gaining momentum, fueled by regulatory enhancements, expanding infrastructure, and strategic agreements.

The shift aligns with the region’s broader economic diversification efforts under national transformation plans.

The report also highlights major global trade realignments that could benefit the GCC.

North America is solidifying its resilience, with US-Mexico business forecast to grow by $315 billion by 2033, while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is set to achieve a 3.7 percent annual growth rate.

India is emerging as a critical player, with total trade expected to reach $1.8 trillion annually by 2033.

As the Global South gains economic influence, representing 18 percent of the international gross domestic product and 62 percent of the world’s population, trade among developing nations is expected to expand significantly.

Annual exchange within these regions is set to rise by $673 billion over the next decade, while trade between the Global South and developed economies is projected to hit $1.67 trillion annually by 2033.

To capitalize on these shifting dynamics, the report outlines key strategies for business leaders in the GCC, emphasizing supply chain resilience and expansion into high-growth markets like India and China.

It also encourages investment in nearshoring strategies to leverage the region’s strategic position.

“Success will depend on cultivating deep market intelligence, robust scenario planning, and strategic partnerships,” Cristian Rodriguez-Chiffelle, partner and director for trade and investment at BCG, said.

With global trade undergoing rapid transformation, the GCC’s ability to position itself as a key player in emerging trade corridors will determine its long-term economic resilience and influence in the global marketplace.