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LONDON: Oil prices slipped on Thursday after a surge in the previous session on a larger-than-expected draw in US gasoline stocks, as markets weighed macroeconomic concerns against firm near-term demand.

Brent futures fell 5 cents to $70.9 a barrel by 7:26 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures shed 10 cents to $67.58 a barrel.

Both benchmarks rallied about 2 percent on Wednesday as US government data showed tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories.

US gasoline inventories fell by 5.7 million barrels, more than the 1.9 million-barrel draw expected by analysts, while distillate stocks also dropped more than anticipated — despite gains in crude stocks.

“Declining US gasoline inventories raised expectations for a seasonal demand increase in spring, but concerns about the global economic impact of tariff wars weighed on the market,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment.

“With strong and weak factors progressing simultaneously, it has become difficult for the market to lean decisively in one direction or the other,” he added.

Donald Trump threatened on Wednesday to escalate a global trade war with further tariffs on EU goods, as major US trading partners said they would retaliate for trade barriers already erected by the US president.

Trump’s hyper-focus on tariffs has rattled investors, consumers and business confidence and raised US recession fears.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Wednesday that Kazakhstan led a sizeable jump in February crude output by the wider OPEC+, highlighting a challenge for the producer group in enforcing adherence to agreed output targets.

Worries about fumbling jet fuel demand weighed further on markets, JP Morgan analysts said, adding that US Transportation Security Administration data showed passenger volumes for March have decreased by 5 percent year-over-year, following stagnant traffic in February.

However, firm demand expectations limited overall market weakness.

Signs of robust US demand and Ukraine’s deployment of 377 drones targeting Russian energy infrastructure and military installations supported prices, said JP Morgan analysts in a client note.

“As of March 11, global oil demand averaged 102.2 million barrels per day, expanding 1.7 million barrels per day year-over-year and exceeding our projected increase for the month by 60,000 barrels per day,” they added.

 

RIYADH: Egypt has secured a $1.2 billion disbursement from the International Monetary Fund following the completion of the fourth review of its economic reform program.

This disbursement, approved by the IMF’s Executive Board under the Extended Fund Facility, brings Egypt’s total funding under the program to approximately $3.2 billion.

In addition, the IMF has approved a $1.3 billion arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility to support Egypt’s climate-related reforms.

The 46-month EFF arrangement, which was initially approved in December 2022, is designed to promote macroeconomic stability and drive structural reforms to support sustainable growth. The IMF has acknowledged Egypt’s progress in stabilizing its economy, despite external challenges such as regional conflicts and trade disruptions.

“Since March 2024, the authorities have made considerable progress in stabilizing the economy and rebuilding market confidence despite a challenging external environment,” said Nigel Clarke, deputy managing director and chair of the IMF executive board.  

Macroeconomic indicators show a mixed recovery for Egypt. Gross domestic product growth, which slowed to 2.4 percent in the fiscal year 2023-24 from 3.8 percent the previous year, rebounded to 3.5 percent in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024-25.

Inflation, which had surged in recent years, has been gradually moderating since September 2023, alleviating some pressure on household incomes.

Meanwhile, the government achieved a primary fiscal surplus of 2.5 percent of GDP in 2023-24, marking a one-percentage-point improvement from the previous year. This was primarily driven by expenditure controls, which helped offset weaker domestic revenue performance.

Despite several improvements, Egypt continues to face significant fiscal challenges, including high debt levels and substantial financing needs. The country’s current account deficit widened to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2023-24, largely due to a $6 billion drop in Suez Canal receipts in 2024, caused by trade disruptions in the Red Sea.

However, remittances from Egyptian workers abroad and strong tourism revenues have provided crucial foreign exchange inflows.

To ensure fiscal sustainability, the IMF has recommended that Egypt expand its tax base, streamline tax incentives, and improve compliance. As IMF spokesperson Clarke noted, “Broadening the tax base, streamlining tax incentives, and enhancing compliance are essential to creating fiscal space for priority development and social needs.”

Additionally, the IMF stressed the importance of a comprehensive debt management strategy, which includes deepening the domestic debt market and enhancing fiscal transparency, particularly concerning off-budget entities.

In response to external challenges, the Egyptian government has adjusted its medium-term fiscal targets.