ISLAMABAD: A Pakistani market research organization on Wednesday estimated a further decline in inflation in the ongoing month, projecting it to fall below 1%, marking the lowest monthly year-on-year (YoY) reading in over three decades.​
Topline Pakistan Research, a division of Topline Securities, a prominent brokerage house in Pakistan, gathers and analyzes market data along with consumer behavior and socio-economic indicators.
In recent years, Pakistan has grappled with high inflation, with consumer prices reaching a record 38% in May 2023. However, subsequent monetary policy measures and a series of economic reforms led to a substantial decline, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 1.5% in February 2025.​
“Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Mar 2025 is expected to bottom out and clock in at 0.5-1.0% YoY (+0.9 percent MoM), lowest monthly YoY reading in over 3 decades, taking 9MFY25 average to 5.38% compared to 27.06% in 9MFY24,” Topline Pakistan Research stated in its estimate.​
It noted the anticipated decline in March 2025’s CPI was likely to follow a 2.3% reduction in electricity prices, resulting from a higher fuel cost adjustment of Rs2 per kilowatt hour (kWh) compared to Rs1/kWh in the previous month.
The transport segment index is also expected to decrease by 0.7% month-on-month, owing to a decline in diesel and petrol prices by an average of 2%.​
Given these developments, Topline Pakistan Research said it was also revising its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 downward from 6-7% to 5-6%.​
With the expected inflation rate of less than 1 percent for March 2025, the research organization said the real interest rates will be significantly higher than Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300 basis points, standing at 1,100-1,150 basis points. However, based on fiscal year 2026 inflation estimates of 8-9%, real rates are projected to be 300-400 basis points positive.​
Topline Pakistan Research also cautioned any major deviation in commodity rates from current levels, especially fuel prices, could result in change in inflation estimates.