Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?

Thom Serafin: Trump as a potential broker for regional peace in the Middle East
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Updated 17 November 2024
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Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?

Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?
  • Political consultants believe president-elect’s rapport with Israeli PM positions him uniquely to influence regional dynamics
  • Jeff Davis and Thom Serafin unpacked the ramifications of the US election results on The Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO: The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States is expected to open pathways to peace in the Middle East, according to predictions from two prominent political consultants from both the Republican and Democratic parties.

Republican strategist Jeff Davis, president of Victory Media Inc., and Democratic consultant Thom Serafin suggested on Thursday that Trump’s leverage and strong relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could facilitate a ceasefire with the Palestinians and potentially pave the way for support from Saudi support.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)

Appearing on The Ray Hanania Radio Show, both consultants agreed that Trump’s rapport with the Israeli leadership and his previous initiatives in the region, including the Abraham Accords, position him uniquely to influence Middle East dynamics.

“(Trump) is well respected, especially in Israel. When he was president last time, Jerusalem became the capital,” Serafin said. “There’s a lot of good blood there. He thought they were coming to an accord where they would have the long-term peace at the time.”

Trump’s first term saw the official US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, marked by the controversial relocation of the US Embassy in 2018. Concurrently, he spearheaded the Abraham Accords, paving the way for normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and later Morocco.




This photo taken on September 15, 2020, shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (3R) and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan with the historic Abraham Accords document at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

Although these accords encountered resistance from some neighboring Arab nations, they laid the groundwork for potential US-mediated discussions between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. However, that prospect was cut short following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel and the subsequent escalation in Gaza, dashing hopes for a new era of Middle East peace and stability.

“Everything blew up on Oct. 7 when they were, (rather) they thought they were getting very, very close (to a deal). But you need somebody who’s full-time there and goes toe to toe with Netanyahu. And I think Trump is the guy who could do that,” he said.

Serafin, who has an extensive background in media and political consultancy, having worked as press secretary on several US Senate election campaigns and served on the staffs of Senator Alan Dixon and Representative Dan Rostenkowski, highlighted the significance of the hostages held by Hamas as a key element in negotiating peace with regional powers, including Iran and its proxies.




In this photo taken on October 24, 2024, relatives of hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Palestinian militants during the October 7, 2023 attacks protest outside the Israeli prime minister's residence in central Jerusalem, calling for action to release the hostages. (AFP)

“If he’s capable of reaching the Israelis, and I think he is, that’s the key,” he said. “If you can get Israel to be accommodating to what he needs to do, you can bring peace, at least ceasefire, to that part of the world.”

Since October last year, escalating violence in the Middle East has spread from Gaza to Lebanon, drawing diplomats worldwide into urgent efforts to mediate a solution.

INNUMBERS

• 2,600 Trump’s margin of victory over Harris in Arab-majority Michigan suburb of Dearborn.

• 17,400 Joe Biden’s margin of victory over Trump in the same city in 2020.

The conflict, driven by clashes involving Iran-backed groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, has seen limited restraint from Israeli officials, further fueling tensions. This crisis has also taken center stage in the US election season, especially among Arab Americans some of whom view the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the situation as a betrayal, given their community’s crucial support for the Democrats’ 2020 win.

Davis noted that while many Arab Americans declined to endorse Harris due to her stance on the conflict, Trump garnered substantial support within the community resulting in his re-election on Tuesday, but still has “some way to go” to fully solidify these ties.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, right, looks on as local Muslim leaders speak during a campaign rally on Oct. 26, 2024, in Novi, Michigan. (AP)

He pointed to Michigan’s Arab-majority Dearborn as a case in point, where Trump won 42.5 percent of the Arab American vote compared to Harris’s 36.3 percent. Notably, anti-war critic Dr. Jill Stein drew 18.3 percent in the area, reflecting broader discontent within the community.

“Let’s talk about Michigan a little bit. Because of the population centers in Michigan being Arab American and how Trump did well there. And he did well there, but he won those areas,” Davis said.

Analyzing data from Dearborn, he noted that Trump still has ground to cover with the Arab American community, acknowledging that Stein’s appeal in Dearborn was significantly stronger than her national average.

Davis, a seasoned Republican strategist who has advised campaigns across several battleground states, emphasized that although Stein’s Green Party did not reach the 5 percent threshold needed for major party status, Trump’s support within the Arab American community was bolstered by endorsements from figures like former Democrat Dr. Bishara Bahbah and Dr. Massad Boulos, father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, second right, greets local Muslim leaders during a campaign rally in Novi, Michigan on Oct. 26, 2024. (AP)

Both Davis and Serafin noted that Trump made unexpected inroads into traditional Democratic voter bases, securing 45 percent of the Hispanic vote and nearly 27 percent of the Black vote. Surprising many experts, Trump’s success in gaining support from key demographics enabled him to outpace Harris in critical swing states. However, the two consultants emphasized that Harris’s primary setback was her struggle to connect with voters on a personal level.

“I recall that old phrase, ‘I feel your pain.’ She did not exhibit that on the campaign trail,” Serafin said. “She had the joy and all these other things, but ironically, she wasn’t feeling the pain of the average voter that was struggling.”

He argued that Harris’ lack of empathy during the campaign failed to fully address concerns around the economy and rising inflation.




Democratic consultant Thom Serafin believes Vice President Kamala Harris’ lack of empathy during the campaign failed to fully address concerns around the economy and rising inflation. (Supplied)

“Everything I learned in college, over the last 50 years, 60 years in life, is (that) inflation is the hidden pain, hidden taxation. You know, all of a sudden you get your hundred-dollars paycheck every week, but the bills are getting higher and higher. You just can’t meet ends,” Serafin added.

Polling throughout the campaign, including an Arab News/YouGov survey, consistently highlighted economic concerns as top priorities for voters, also among Arab Americans, who indicated them as nearly on par with foreign policy issues in the Middle East.

Davis and Serafin also contended that media coverage frequently misrepresented Trump’s statements, including attributing to him a comedian’s reference to Puerto Rico as a “garbage island,” or claims that Trump suggested aiming guns at Liz Cheney.




Republican strategist Jeff Davis, president of Victory Media Inc. (Supplied)

In reality, Trump was not present when the comedian made his remark, and his statements on Cheney referred to her lack of military experience, not an incitement to violence.

The consultants also said that Democratic efforts to emphasize Trump’s legal battles, many of which originated from the Democrat-led Department of Justice, further deepened the polarization, arguably contributing to his game. Trump currently faces multiple felony charges related to fraud, election interference and obstruction.

“Every time they called him the felon, I thought to myself, what a mistake. Because everybody knows he’s only a felon because the Democrats wanted him to be one. It wasn’t because he was legitimately a felon,” Serafin said. “And, so, I thought that was always a mistake when she called him that way and some other people. After a while, they stopped doing that because they probably tested that term, and it was backfiring.”




T-shirts on display for sale at a shopping mall in Las Vegas, Nevada, on November 6, 2024, including one reading "I vote for the convicted felon", the day after former US President Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election. (AFP)

Both Davis and Serafin believe these cases may be dismissed, setting the stage for another four years under Trump’s leadership — one that will inherit a divided domestic landscape and face the immense challenge of upholding his promise to end the conflict that has claimed nearly 50,000 lives, while working toward the peace and stability long desired in the Middle East.

Serafin and Davis shared their insights on The Ray Hanania Radio Show, aired Thursday on the US Arab Radio Network in Michigan and sponsored by Arab News.

For more information or to listen to past shows, visit ArabNews.com/rayradioshow.

 


Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning

Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning
Updated 8 sec ago
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Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning

Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning
  • Israeli defense minister says large areas in Gaza would be seized and added to Israel's security zones
  • Israel resumed air strikes on Gaza and sent ground troops back this month after fragile truce collapsed

JERUSALEM: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a major expansion of the military operation in Gaza on Wednesday, saying large areas of the enclave would be seized and added to the security zones of Israel.
In a statement, Katz said there would be large-scale evacuation of population from areas where there is fighting, and urged Gazans to eliminate Hamas and return Israeli hostages as the only way to end the war.
He did not make clear how much land Israel intends to seize, however.

Gaza rescuers say 15 killed in Israeli strikes on two houses

Gaza’s civil defense agency said Israeli air strikes on two houses in the war-ravaged Palestinian territory on Wednesday killed at least 15 people, including children.
“Thirteen martyrs, including children, were killed at dawn when occupation forces (the Israeli army) bombed a house sheltering displaced people in central Khan Yunis, in southern Gaza,” civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP, adding two other people were kiled in an Israeli strike on a house in the Nuseirat camp, in central Gaza.
Israel has already set up a significant buffer zone within Gaza, expanding an area that existed around the edges of the enclave before the war and adding a large security area in the so-called Netzarim corridor through the middle of Gaza.
At the same time, Israeli leaders have said they plan to facilitate voluntary departure of Palestinians from the enclave, after US President Donald Trump called for it to be permanently evacuated and redeveloped as a coastal resort under US control.
Israel resumed air strikes on Gaza and sent ground troops back in this month, after two months of relative calm following the conclusion of a US-backed truce to allow the exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Efforts led by Qatari and Egyptian mediators to get back on tracks talks aimed at ending the war have failed to make progress yet.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the application of military pressure is the best way to get the remaining 59 hostages back.


Young Turks drive protests against Erdogan as new generation seeks change

Young Turks drive protests against Erdogan as new generation seeks change
Updated 6 min 10 sec ago
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Young Turks drive protests against Erdogan as new generation seeks change

Young Turks drive protests against Erdogan as new generation seeks change
  • Hundreds of thousands of Turks nationwide have heeded opposition calls to protest since Imamoglu was detained last week
  • As protests continue, young Turks insist their demands are simple: democracy, accountability, and a future worth staying for

ANKARA: A new generation of young Turks is at the forefront of mass protests against President Tayyip Erdogan’s government, demanding change in a country they see as increasingly authoritarian. Demonstrations erupted after Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a popular opposition figure, was jailed pending trial on corruption charges. Unlike older generations who remember the heavy crackdown on the 2013 anti-government Gezi Park protests, today’s young protesters say they are undeterred by the risks.
“I think growing up under just one regime makes us a generation looking for change, looking for proof we live in a democracy,” said Yezan Atesyan, a 20-year-old student at Middle East Technical University (METU).
“The idea of a power that lasts forever scares us.”
Hundreds of thousands of Turks nationwide have heeded opposition calls to protest since Imamoglu was detained last week.
Protests have been mostly peaceful, but more than 2,000 people have been detained.
The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), other opposition parties, rights groups and some Western powers have all said the case against Imamoglu is a politicised effort to eliminate a potential electoral threat to Erdogan.
The government denies any influence over the judiciary and says the courts are independent.
Students from across Turkey have mobilized, facing police blockades and water cannon trucks. Drone footage from METU captured clashes between protesters and state security forces.
Atesyan said all were targetted in the crackdown: "Not just minorities, not just women, not just the LGBT community — it is against all of us."

A GENERATION ON EDGE
Beyond political frustration, economic hardship has fueled the unrest. High inflation and unemployment have made young people feel their future is slipping away.
“I graduated in 2024, but I can’t find a job, and my family struggles financially,” said 25-year-old protester Duygu at an opposition rally in Istanbul.
She fears for her safety but also worries about her friends. “Some of them have already been detained.”
Concerns over the state's response are growing. “I don’t want to show my face because the police could come for me,” said Duygu, who wears a mask at protests. “If that happens, it would devastate my family.”
Despite the risks, demonstrators remain resolute.
“This feels like our last chance,” Atesyan said.
“If we don’t succeed, many of us will have to leave Turkey.”
The government dismisses the protests as politically motivated, but the youth-driven unrest signals a growing divide.
“Imamoglu represents hope,” Atesyan said. “The possibility of real change.”
As protests continue, young Turks insist their demands are simple: democracy, accountability, and a future worth staying for.


Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning

Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning
Updated 02 April 2025
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Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning

Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning
  • Katz said there would be large-scale evacuation of population from areas where there is fighting

JERUSALEM: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a major expansion of the military operation in Gaza on Wednesday, saying large areas of the enclave would be seized and added to the security zones of Israel.
In a statement, Katz said there would be large-scale evacuation of population from areas where there is fighting, and urged Gazans to eliminate Hamas and return Israeli hostages as the only way to end the war.
He did not make clear how much land Israel intends to seize, however.

Gaza rescuers say 15 killed in Israeli strikes on two houses

Gaza’s civil defense agency said Israeli air strikes on two houses in the war-ravaged Palestinian territory on Wednesday killed at least 15 people, including children.
“Thirteen martyrs, including children, were killed at dawn when occupation forces (the Israeli army) bombed a house sheltering displaced people in central Khan Yunis, in southern Gaza,” civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP, adding two other people were kiled in an Israeli strike on a house in the Nuseirat camp, in central Gaza.
Israel has already set up a significant buffer zone within Gaza, expanding an area that existed around the edges of the enclave before the war and adding a large security area in the so-called Netzarim corridor through the middle of Gaza.
At the same time, Israeli leaders have said they plan to facilitate voluntary departure of Palestinians from the enclave, after US President Donald Trump called for it to be permanently evacuated and redeveloped as a coastal resort under US control.
Israel resumed air strikes on Gaza and sent ground troops back in this month, after two months of relative calm following the conclusion of a US-backed truce to allow the exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Efforts led by Qatari and Egyptian mediators to get back on tracks talks aimed at ending the war have failed to make progress yet.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the application of military pressure is the best way to get the remaining 59 hostages back.


US adding second aircraft carrier to fleet in Middle East

US adding second aircraft carrier to fleet in Middle East
Updated 02 April 2025
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US adding second aircraft carrier to fleet in Middle East

US adding second aircraft carrier to fleet in Middle East
  • The Harry S. Truman carrier strike group will be joined by the Carl Vinson “to continue promoting regional stability, deter aggression, and protect the free flow of commerce in the region,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement

WASHINGTON: The United States is increasing the number of aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East to two, keeping one that is already there and sending another from the Indo-Pacific, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
The announcement comes as US forces hammer Yemen’s Houthi rebels with near-daily air strikes in a campaign aimed at ending the threat they pose to civilian shipping and military vessels in the region.
The Carl Vinson will join the Harry S. Truman in the Middle East “to continue promoting regional stability, deter aggression, and protect the free flow of commerce in the region,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement.
“To complement the CENTCOM maritime posture, the secretary also ordered the deployment of additional squadrons and other air assets that will further reinforce our defensive air-support capabilities,” Parnell said, referring to the US military command responsible for the region.
“The United States and its partners remain committed to regional security in the CENTCOM (area of responsibility) and are prepared to respond to any state or non-state actor seeking to broaden or escalate conflict in the region,” he added.
The Houthis began targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden after the start of the Gaza war in 2023, claiming solidarity with Palestinians.
Houthi attacks have prevented ships from passing through the Suez Canal, a vital route that normally carries about 12 percent of world shipping traffic. Ongoing attacks are forcing many companies into a costly detour around the tip of southern Africa.

A day before the carrier announcement, US President Donald Trump vowed that strikes on Yemen’s Houthis would continue until they are no longer a threat to shipping.
“The choice for the Houthis is clear: Stop shooting at US ships, and we will stop shooting at you. Otherwise, we have only just begun, and the real pain is yet to come, for both the Houthis and their sponsors in Iran,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
Trump added that the Houthis had been “decimated” by “relentless” strikes since March 15, saying that US forces “hit them every day and night — Harder and harder.”
He has also ramped up rhetoric toward Tehran, with the president threatening that “there will be bombing” if Iran does not reach a deal on its nuclear program.
Trump’s threats come as his administration battles a scandal over the accidental leak of a secret group chat by senior security officials on the Yemen strikes.
The Atlantic magazine revealed last week that its editor — a well-known US journalist — was inadvertently included in a chat on the commercially available Signal app where top officials were discussing the strikes.
The officials, including Trump’s National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, discussed details of air strike timings and intelligence — unaware that the highly sensitive information was being simultaneously read by a member of the media.

 


Algeria downs drone near its border with Mali as tensions between them simmer

Algerian soldiers take part in a parade in the capital Algiers on July 5, 2022. (AFP)
Algerian soldiers take part in a parade in the capital Algiers on July 5, 2022. (AFP)
Updated 02 April 2025
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Algeria downs drone near its border with Mali as tensions between them simmer

Algerian soldiers take part in a parade in the capital Algiers on July 5, 2022. (AFP)
  • Algeria has denounced the direction that Mali’s new government has taken and its expanded efforts to quash rebellion in historically volatile parts of northern Mali
  • Algeria once served as a key mediator during more than a decade of conflict between Mali’s government and Tuareg rebels

BAMAKO, Mali: Algeria said Tuesday it shot down a military drone near the country’s border with Mali in the first incident of its kind during growing tensions between the two countries governing a vast portion of the Sahara.
The country’s army said in a statement that the armed reconnaissance drone had entered Algerian airspace Monday near Tin Zaouatine, a border town and stronghold for Tuareg separatists opposed to Mali’s government. Mali’s army acknowledged that one of its drones had crashed in the area, but did not confirm whether it was shot down by Algeria.
Rida Lyammouri, a Sahel expert at the Morocco-based Policy Center for the New South, said the shooting down of the drone — rather than issuing a warning — reflected simmering frustrations.
It “confirms the serious tensions between the countries and unwillingness and zero tolerance by Algeria to allow the use of its airspace and territory by Malian forces,” he said.
The incident comes as tensions rise between Algeria and its southern neighbors, including Mali.
Algeria once served as a key mediator during more than a decade of conflict between Mali’s government and Tuareg rebels. But the two countries have grown apart since a military junta staged coups in 2020 and 2021, putting military personnel in charge of the country’s key institutions.
Algeria has denounced the direction that Mali’s new government has taken and its expanded efforts to quash rebellion in historically volatile parts of northern Mali. Afraid of conflict spilling over the border, Algerian officials have denounced Mali’s use of Russian mercenaries and armed drones near Tin Zaouatine, which is divided by the border separating the two countries.
But failures to curb instability in northern Mali have led to the downfall of previous governments and Mali’s Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maiga addressed the issue in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly last year, promising to respond swiftly to violence in the north.
Algeria has one of Africa’s largest militaries and has long considered itself a regional power but military leaders in neighboring Mali and Niger have distanced themselves as they’ve championed autonomy and sought new alliances, including with Russia.
Algeria did not specify who the drone it intercepted belonged to. A spokesperson for Mali’s army declined to comment when asked about Algeria’s alleging that an armed drone had crossed its border, but said the crash didn’t hurt anyone or cause property damage.
Unverified video circulating on social media showed images of an Akinci drone manufactured by Baykar downed in Tin Zaouatine. Mali purchased at least two from the Turkish company last year and has used them against armed separatists as well as fighters linked to Al-Qaeda and the Daesh group.