Is the ‘writing on the wall’ for Syria’s Assad?

Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 08 December 2024
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Is the ‘writing on the wall’ for Syria’s Assad?

Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
  • Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall,” Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. “Things are folding very quickly”
  • As early as November 2011, Turkiye’s Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his “office is only temporary”

PARIS: More than 13 years since Bashar Assad’s security forces opened fire on protesters demanding democratic reforms, the Syrian president’s grip on power may finally be weakening.
The 59-year-old son and heir of late dictator Hafez Assad has faced several setbacks during the long civil war triggered by his brutal crackdown in March 2011, but has so far managed to cling on to power.
Now, with his Lebanese ally Hezbollah reeling from an Israeli onslaught and his great power backer Russia distracted by its invasion of Ukraine, Assad is running short of friends on the battlefield.
Key cities in the north, including Aleppo and Hama have fallen to opposition fighters in just a matter of days.
And on Saturday the militants said they are now encircling the capital where Assad has ruled since the death of his father in 2000.
Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has welcomed the militant advance; Israel is reinforcing its forces in the occupied Golan; and Syria’s southern neighbor Jordan is organizing an evacuation of its citizens.
In a further sign of Assad’s isolation, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group, which controls much of northeast Syria, said it was ready to speak to its foes among the Turkish-backed militants.
But international observers have repeatedly predicted the isolated former ophthalmologist’s fall since the earliest months of the uprising, and they have repeatedly been incorrect.
The 2011 protests against Assad’s rule began after a teenager was arrested for allegedly scrawling anti-government graffiti in the southern town of Daraa.

Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall,” Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. “Things are folding very quickly.”
The militant advance has been stunning.
After Aleppo and Hama fell in quick succession, the militants and government forces were clashing Saturday near the major city of Homs.
Its capture would effectively cut Assad’s capital off from his support base in the Alawite minority community in the coastal highlands.
“The Alawite minority has lost faith in Assad,” Landis said. “There are serious questions about whether the Syrian army has any fight left.”
But some caution is merited. After all, haven’t world leaders underestimated Assad before?
As early as November 2011, Turkiye’s Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his “office is only temporary.”
In October 2012, during a re-election campaign debate, US president Barack Obama also warned Assad that his “days are numbered.”
The next month, Nabil Elaraby, then the head of the Arab League, declared “everyone knows that the government in Syria will not remain for long.”
The Syrian strongman defied them all, even as international lawyers drew up arrest warrants for war crimes and rights groups denounced Syria’s use of chemical weapons and aerial bombardment in civilian areas.
As the civil war spiralled into overlapping regional conflicts — government versus militants, Turkiye versus Kurdish fighters, US-backed militias against Daesh group jihadists — Assad retained his grip.
At first he was ostracized by many fellow Arab leaders, leaning instead on Iranian and Russian support, but as it became clear he was not leaving the stage diplomatic ties quietly resumed.

And meanwhile, Russia and Iran had Assad’s back. Lebanon’s pro-Iran Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters, backed by Iranian advisers, to bolster Syrian government forces. Russia carried out air strikes.
But the speed of this week’s militant victories seems to suggest that without his powerful foreign friends, Assad’s Syrian army is a hollow shell.
Russia has such little confidence in its ally that its embassy has acknowledged a “difficult military and political situation.”
Before the recent ceasefire in its conflict with Israel, Hezbollah lost thousands of fighters and weapons and its long-standing chief Hassan Nasrallah.
It appears to be in no position to help, despite a Hezbollah source saying Saturday it had sent 2,000 fighters into Syria’s Qusayr area “to defend its positions.”
“The Assad government is in its most precarious position since the summer of 2012,” Nick Heras, an analyst at the New Lines Institute, told AFP.
“There is a real risk that the Assad government could lose power in Damascus, either through battles or through a negotiated retreat.
“Ultimately, the Assad government’s ability to survive will depend on the extent to which Iran and Russia see Assad as useful to their strategies in the region.”
Heras said that Russia, which has a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, would be loath to withdraw its military personnel and assets from the country, and Iran would be similarly reluctant to abandon Assad.
“If either or both of those allies decide they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered,” Heras said.
The winners would be Assad’s main regional opponents: Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkiye’s Erdogan, who both faced periods of intense domestic criticism only to emerge victorious in war.
Turkiye-backed militants are now spearheading the opposition advance on Homs, and Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria have effectively neutralized Assad’s most potent backer.

 


Hamas ready for talks with Trump administration, Hamas official tells RIA

Mousa Abu Marzouk, senior Hamas Politburo member. (Wikipedia)
Mousa Abu Marzouk, senior Hamas Politburo member. (Wikipedia)
Updated 5 min 19 sec ago
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Hamas ready for talks with Trump administration, Hamas official tells RIA

Mousa Abu Marzouk, senior Hamas Politburo member. (Wikipedia)
  • Trump vowed on Tuesday that the US would take over the war-shattered Gaza Strip after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere and develop it economically, a move that would shatter decades of US policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

GAZA CITY: The Palestinian Hamas movement is ready to establish contact and hold talks with the administration of US President Donald Trump, Russia’s RIA state news agency cited a senior Hamas official as saying in remarks published early on Wednesday.
“We are ready for contact and talks with the Trump administration,” RIA cited senior Hamas Politburo member Mousa Abu Marzouk as saying.
“In the past, we did not object to contacts with the administration of (former US President Joe) Biden, Trump or any other US administration, and we are open to talks with all international parties.”
It was not clear when RIA interviewed Marzouk, who was visiting Moscow on Monday for talks with the Russian foreign ministry.
Trump vowed on Tuesday that the US would take over the war-shattered Gaza Strip after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere and develop it economically, a move that would shatter decades of US policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Marzouk told RIA that talks with the US have become a kind of necessity for Hamas, considering that Washington is a key player in the Middle East.
“That is why we welcomed the talks with the Americans and have no objection to this issue,” he added.

 


Iraq’s top court suspends new legislation that activists say undermines women’s rights

Iraq’s top court suspends new legislation that activists say undermines women’s rights
Updated 25 min 21 sec ago
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Iraq’s top court suspends new legislation that activists say undermines women’s rights

Iraq’s top court suspends new legislation that activists say undermines women’s rights
  • Women’s rights advocates argue that the changes undermine previous reforms that created a unified family law and established safeguards for women
  • Proponents of the amendments, which were advocated by primarily conservative Shiite lawmakers, defend them as a means to align the law with Islamic principles and reduce Western influence on Iraqi culture

BAGHDAD: Iraq’s top court suspended implementation Tuesday of three controversial bills passed last month by the country’s parliament, including a measure that activists said undermines women’s rights.
A number of members of parliament filed a complaint alleging that the voting process was illegal because all three bills — each supported by different blocs — were voted on last month together rather than each one being voted on separately. The Federal Supreme Court issued an order, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, to suspend their implementation until the case is adjudicated.
The measures include an amendment to the country’s personal status law to give Islamic courts increased authority over family matters, including marriage, divorce and inheritance.
Women’s rights advocates argue that the changes undermine previous reforms that created a unified family law and established safeguards for women. Proponents of the amendments, which were advocated by primarily conservative Shiite lawmakers, defend them as a means to align the law with Islamic principles and reduce Western influence on Iraqi culture.
Earlier versions of the measure were seen as potentially opening the door to child marriage since some interpretations of Islamic law allow the marriage of girls in their early teens — or as young as 9. The final version passed by the parliament states that both parties must be “adults,” without specifying the age of adulthood.
The second bill was for a general amnesty law seen as benefiting Sunni detainees. Some fear it could allow the release of people involved in public corruption and embezzlement as well as militants who committed war crimes.
The third bill aimed to return lands confiscated from the Kurds under the rule of Saddam Hussein. It is opposed by some Arab groups, saying it could lead to the displacement of Arab residents.

 


Leaders ‘should respect’ wishes of Palestinians to stay in Gaza: Palestinian UN envoy

Leaders ‘should respect’ wishes of Palestinians to stay in Gaza: Palestinian UN envoy
Updated 19 sec ago
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Leaders ‘should respect’ wishes of Palestinians to stay in Gaza: Palestinian UN envoy

Leaders ‘should respect’ wishes of Palestinians to stay in Gaza: Palestinian UN envoy
  • For those who want to send them to a happy, nice place, let them go back to their original homes inside Israel, there are nice places there, and they will be happy to return to these places”

UNITED NATIONS, United States: World leaders and people should respect Palestinians’ desire to remain in Gaza, the Palestinian envoy to the United Nations said Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump said he believed people from the territory should be resettled elsewhere “permanently.”
“Our homeland is our homeland, if part of it is destroyed, the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian people selected the choice to return to it,” said Riyad Mansour. “And I think that leaders and people should respect the wishes of the Palestinian people.”
On Tuesday, Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, with the US leader saying he believed Palestinians should leave Gaza after an Israeli offensive that has devastated the territory and left most of it reduced to rubble.
Speaking ahead of the meeting, Trump said he wanted a solution that saw “a beautiful area to resettle people permanently in nice homes where they can be happy.”
At the United Nations, Mansour did not name Trump but appeared to reject the US president’s proposal.
“Our country and our home is” the Gaza Strip, “it’s part of Palestine,” he said. “We have no home. For those who want to send them to a happy, nice place, let them go back to their original homes inside Israel, there are nice places there, and they will be happy to return to these places.”
The war in Gaza erupted after Palestinian armed group Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, which resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people on the Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory response has killed at least 47,518 people in Gaza, the majority civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The UN considers these figures as reliable.
The UN says more than 1.9 million people — or 90 percent of Gaza’s population — have been displaced by Israel’s offensive, with the bombing campaign having leveled most structures in the territory, including schools, hospitals and basic civil infrastructure.
The start of a ceasefire deal, which included the release of hostages held by Hamas and prisoners held by Israel, on January 19 saw Palestinians rejoice, with many returning to homes that no longer stood.
“In two days, in a span of a few hours, 400,000 Palestinians walking returned to the northern part of the Gaza Strip,” said UN envoy Mansour.
“I think that we should be respecting the selections and the wishes of the Palestinian people, and the Palestinian people at the end will make the determination, their determination.”
 

 


Netanyahu hails Trump as ‘greatest friend Israel has ever had’

Netanyahu hails Trump as ‘greatest friend Israel has ever had’
Updated 05 February 2025
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Netanyahu hails Trump as ‘greatest friend Israel has ever had’

Netanyahu hails Trump as ‘greatest friend Israel has ever had’
  • The Palestinian envoy to the United Nations: “Our homeland is our homeland, if part of it is destroyed, the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian people selected the choice to return to it”

WASHINGTON: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Donald Trump as the “greatest friend Israel has ever had,” following a meeting between the two leaders at the White House.
“I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again: you are the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House,” Netanyahu told reporters after the meeting in Washington. “And that’s why the people of Israel have such enormous respect for you.”
 

 


Palestinians will be removed from Gaza and the US will own it: Trump

Palestinians will be removed from Gaza and the US will own it: Trump
Updated 50 min 6 sec ago
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Palestinians will be removed from Gaza and the US will own it: Trump

Palestinians will be removed from Gaza and the US will own it: Trump

WASHINGTON/RIYADH: President Donald Trump said that the US will own the Gaza Strip after the Palestinians that live there are moved to other countries.
Trump made the provocative comments at a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, where the two leaders are expected to discuss the fragile ceasefire and hostage deal in the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
“I don’t think people should be going back,” Trump said. “You can’t live in Gaza right now. I think we need another location. I think it should be a location that’s going to make people happy.”
Trump’s comments came as he and top advisers made the case that a three-to-five-year timeline for reconstruction of the war-torn territory, as laid out in a temporary truce agreement, is not viable.
The president has previously called on Egypt and Jordan to resettle Gazans. Both countries have flatly rejected such proposals.
But Trump said he believes both countries— as well as other countries which he did not name— will ultimately agree to take in Palestinians.
“You look over the decades, it’s all death in Gaza,” Trump said. “This has been happening for years. It’s all death. If we can get a beautiful area to resettle people, permanently, in nice homes where they can be happy and not be shot and not be killed and not be knifed to death like what’s happening in Gaza.”
The White House’s focus on the future of Gaza’s more than 2 million residents comes as the nascent truce between Israel and Hamas hangs in the balance.
Netanyahu is facing competing pressure from his right-wing coalition to end a temporary truce against Hamas militants in Gaza and from war-weary Israelis who want the remaining hostages home and for the 15-month conflict to end.
The leaders said their talks would cover a long-sought Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization deal and shared concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, as well the second phase of the hostage deal.
Trump continues to press for relocating Palestinians from Gaza even after both Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah II last publicly dismissed the idea.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the Palestinian Authority and the Arab League also joined Egypt and Jordan in rejecting plans to move Palestinians out of their territories in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
Yet Trump may be betting he can persuade Egypt and Jordan to come around to accept displaced Palestinians because of the significant aid that the US provides Cairo and Amman. Hard-line right-wing members of Netanyahu’s government have embraced the call to move displaced Palestinians out of Gaza.
“To me, it is unfair to explain to Palestinians that they might be back in five years,” Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, told reporters. “That’s just preposterous.”
Trump also signaled that he may be reconsidering an independent Palestinian state as part of a broader two-state solution to the decades-long Israel-Palestinian conflict. “Well, a lot of plans change with time,” he told reporters when asked if he was still committed to a plan like the one he laid out in 2020 that called for a Palestinian state.
“A lot of death has occurred since I left and now came back,” Trump said. “Now we are faced with a situation that’s different — in some ways better and in some ways worse. But we are faced with a very complex and difficult situation that we’ll solve.”
Netanyahu’s arrival in Washington for the first foreign leader visit of Trump’s second term comes as the prime minister’s popular support is lagging.
The prime minister is in the middle of weekslong testimony in an ongoing corruption trial that centers on allegations he exchanged favors with media moguls and wealthy associates. He has decried the accusations and said he is the victim of a “witch hunt.”
Being seen with Trump, who is popular in Israel, could help distract the public from the trial and boost Netanyahu’s standing.
“We have the right leader of Israel who’s done a great job,” Trump said of Netanyahu.
Netanyahu also praised Trump’s leadership in sealing the hostage and ceasefire deal, which went into effect the day before Trump took office. “I’ll just tell you, I am happy they are here,” Netanyahu said of Trump and his administration.
It’s Netanyahu’s first travel outside Israel since the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants in November for him, his former defense minister and Hamas’ slain military chief, accusing them of crimes against humanity during the war in Gaza. The US does not recognize the ICC’s authority over its citizens or territory.
Netanyahu met with White House national security adviser Mike Waltz and Witkoff on Monday to begin the daunting work of brokering the next phase of a ceasefire agreement.
Netanyahu said in a statement that the meeting with Witkoff and Waltz was “positive and friendly.”
The Israeli leader said he would send a delegation to Qatar to continue indirect talks with Hamas that are being mediated by the Gulf Arab country, the first confirmation that those negotiations would continue. Netanyahu also said he would convene his security Cabinet to discuss Israel’s demands for the next phase of the ceasefire when he returns to Israel at the end of the week.
Witkoff, meanwhile, said he plans to meet with Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, in Florida on Thursday to discuss the next phase in the ceasefire. Qatar and Egypt have served as key intermediaries with Hamas throughout the conflict.
Netanyahu is under intense pressure from hard-right members of his governing coalition to abandon the ceasefire and resume fighting in Gaza to eliminate Hamas. Bezalel Smotrich, one of Netanyahu’s key partners, vows to topple the government if the war isn’t relaunched, a step that could lead to early elections.
Hamas, which has reasserted control over Gaza since the ceasefire began last month, has said it will not release hostages in the second phase without an end to the war and Israeli forces’ full withdrawal. Netanyahu, meanwhile, maintains that Israel is committed to victory over Hamas and the return of all hostages captured in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that triggered the war.
Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is among the hostages, called on Trump to use American leverage to keep Netanyahu committed to the agreement.
Matan, 24, is among those who are expected to be included in the second phase of the deal, when all remaining living hostages — including men under the age of 50 and male soldiers — are to be exchanged for a yet-to-be-determined number of Palestinian prisoners. The second phase is also expected to include the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
“I want President Trump to know there are certain extreme elements from within Israel who are trying to torpedo his vision,” said Zangauker, who traveled to Washington from Israel to join a planned Tuesday rally outside the White House. “We are representative of the vast, vast majority of Israel. The ultra-extremists are blackmailing the prime minister to do their bidding.”
The prime minister is also expected use the visit to press Trump to take decisive action on Iran. Tehran has faced a series of military setbacks, including Israeli forces significantly degrading Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon as well as an operation that decimated Iran’s air defenses. The moment, Netanyahu believes, has created a window to decisively address Tehran’s nuclear program.
Ahead of his meeting with Netanyahu, Trump signed an executive order that he said would increase economic pressure on Iran.
“We’re not going to allow them to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.