Starmer should dare to dream of a ‘Breturn’

It was peculiar to hear Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk saying that he wants a “Breturn,” or a British return to the EU, after talks with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Warsaw last week.

The end of this month marks five years since the UK officially left the EU, a move whose advocates had promised would liberate London from Brussels’ shackling administrative dictates and boost its economy through becoming a “Singapore-on-Thames.” However, these ill-thought-out and uncosted dreams have broken on the rocks of reality.

Since Brexit, the UK’s economy has clearly slowed down, its future growth outlook has taken a hit and billions of pounds have been lost in trade with its closest political, economic and social partner. Brexit has also failed to stem the flow of migrants across the English Channel and the UK has had to replace its European labor force with skilled laborers from farther afield, whose cultures are even more foreign to the UK than European ones.

Above all, and even by the admission of arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage, Britain has not benefited from Brexit and Brexit has “failed.” However, it seems that the leadership of the Labour Party, which scored a landslide victory at last summer’s general election, continues to be an ardent cheerleader for Brexit, regardless of the economic damage it is continuing to cause.

Labour continues to be an ardent cheerleader for Brexit, regardless of the economic damage it is continuing to cause

Mohamed Chebaro

If Farage’s words were not enough, Starmer ought to be encouraged to change course by the fact new Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch last week expressed what has long been common knowledge up and down the country: that her party took the UK out of the EU before it had a plan for growth outside of the bloc. She added that previous Conservative governments also set a target of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and only then started to think about how they could do it. Similarly, they did not have a clear plan on how to lower immigration before making it a centerpiece of their agenda.

Tusk, who was president of the European Council when the UK voted to leave the bloc, said that he would continue to harbor the dream of a “Breturn” in his heart, as sometimes dreams do come true, even in politics.

Like Tusk, Starmer should permit himself to dream, instead of holding firm with his stance that rejoining the customs union or single market is out of the question. In Warsaw, he ratified a bilateral defense treaty with Tusk to deepen ties between the UK and Polish defense industries. This added to the defense deals worth billions of pounds signed in the last few years. There are likely to be more to come, spurred by the Russian threat in Ukraine and beyond.

It would be better for Starmer to dream and fail rather than not dream at all. Any large-scale results for the UK’s struggling economy can come only from deeper post-Brexit ties with the EU through a real and courageous trade and partnership agreement. He needs to bring the UK back to the bloc’s market, instead of its current perpetual search for growth and investment in many unlikely corners of the planet.

The numbers are on Starmer and his chancellor’s side, allowing them to defend any bold move they might make that could upset those on the political right, as well as the criticism that would surely follow that this Labour government was reopening old wounds. This would certainly give a new platform for populists like Boris Johnson.

The Starmer government has so far failed to give voters a tangible, positive dream and a roadmap to get there

Mohamed Chebaro

Bloomberg Economics estimates that the UK is losing £100 billion ($122 billion) a year in output due to Brexit. The UK Office for Budget Responsibility calculates that UK trade has sustained a 15 percent hit in the long run due to exiting the EU market. It is thought that businesses in the UK are suffering across the board and in various ways. The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics found that more than 16,000 British firms that had previously exported to the EU (14 percent of the total) have stopped doing so since the withdrawal agreement came into effect five years ago.

Starmer’s popularity and that of his government is fizzling out. Scraping around looking for economic growth and speaking at all the forums in the world will not improve his ratings, which are very important for any leader. Repeating old stories, such as that he inherited a broken economy and a large deficit from his predecessor, and promising to clean up the UK political arena and return integrity to politicians and policymaking is all well and good. This is why people gave their votes to Labour after years of Conservative blunders. But these are not the only reasons.

Those who voted Labour into power also expected to have a less gloomy outlook on life and fewer struggles with the cost of living, if not now then at least on the horizon. But the Starmer government has so far failed to give them a tangible, positive dream and a roadmap to get there.

Vague economic figures and charts alone will not cut it, as most of us could better associate with stories. And there is one story that could best change that. It is associated with a historic event that has become one of the root causes of the cost-of-living crisis and the shrinking UK economy. That story contains what could change the image of Starmer from cautious lawyer to political leader. It is for Starmer to make tackling Brexit a gateway to repairing the damage done by his predecessors, instead of continuing to deliver vague fiscal measures that can only rebalance an out-of-balance budget that is lacking a path to clear growth.

Starmer’s government has so far been seen as lacking oomph and that is a situation of his own making. He has tried to ride the American horse, which Trump is poised to direct farther away from the UK and other allies in Europe, and the Chinese dragon, which will listen, but only as long as Britain affords it sweeteners and until the next security crisis blows all that out of the water.

The UK PM must instead move mountains to reconnect with the EU, if not to regain entry then to at least obtain meaningful agreements that will allow the smoother movement of people and goods. The UK could then tap into the tangible growth available on its doorstep, rather than relying on plans and promises of growth that depend on far-away potential trading partners, the goodwill of the new US president and/or smaller players in Asia or the Middle East.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British- Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.