US-Saudi ties set for new chapter in Trump’s second term

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election, Saudi Arabia moved swiftly to reinforce its diplomatic ties through multiple channels. King Salman’s congratulatory message highlighted “the excellence of the historic close relations between the two friendly countries and peoples.” The Saudi monarch emphasized the shared commitment to “strengthen and develop them in all fields.”

The diplomatic outreach continued as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman personally called Trump to convey his congratulations. During the call, the crown prince emphasized “Saudi Arabia’s aspiration to strengthen the historical and strategic relations between the two countries.” Responding to these warm sentiments, Trump expressed gratitude to the crown prince for his congratulations and acknowledged his goodwill toward the American people.

Beyond traditional diplomatic exchanges, Saudi Arabia demonstrated its pragmatic approach through informal channels. On Nov. 17, social media buzzed with images and footage of Yasir Al-Rumayyan, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, at UFC 309 in New York in the company of President-elect Trump and his newly appointed government efficiency czar Elon Musk.

This high-profile gathering, which also included several other key figures, signaled Riyadh’s sophisticated approach to relationship building. By engaging with Trump’s inner circle in casual settings, Saudi Arabia demonstrated its commitment to establishing personal connections with influential members of the incoming administration.

Saudi Arabia’s current proactive diplomatic approach builds upon decades of US-Saudi relations. The Kingdom pursues a strategy aimed at creating resilient ties that can withstand shifts between Democratic and Republican administrations. This approach operates on two tracks: first, by deepening institutional cooperation between the two governments and, second, by cultivating broad networks among American political, economic and intellectual leaders. Through transparent engagement and emphasis on shared interests, Saudi Arabia works to steadily strengthen these relationships, while developing mechanisms to address any points of disagreement between the nations.

During Monday’s inauguration of President Trump, Princess Reema bint Bandar, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US, highlighted the enduring bond between the two nations. She emphasized the deep historical ties spanning eight decades, noting how their strategic partnership has enhanced regional stability and security, while successfully navigating various political and economic challenges. The ambassador reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s commitment to continued collaboration with the US, stressing their shared goal of advancing the well-being of both peoples, the region and the global community.

In an interview with Al-Arabiya last October, then-presidential candidate Trump expressed his intention to collaborate with the crown prince on regional peace initiatives. Trump dubbed the Saudi leader a “visionary.” He commended the crown prince’s achievements, saying that “he has done things that nobody else would have even thought about.” He said he is a “great guy” and lauded his approach to leadership.

Trump’s laudatory remarks signal a clear diplomatic overture to Riyadh, indicating his readiness to cultivate stronger bilateral ties during his administration. By offering such explicit praise, he seeks to differentiate his approach from the more contentious stance adopted by Democrats, particularly contrasting with President Joe Biden’s initial critical rhetoric toward the Kingdom during his campaign and early tenure.

Saudi Economy Minister Faisal Al-Ibrahim has emphasized the Kingdom’s willingness to maintain continuity in Saudi-US cooperation, while expressing readiness to address global economic challenges alongside Trump’s administration, especially the economic growth slowdown affecting the international community.

This economic focus reflects Riyadh’s strategic assessment of Trump’s business-oriented approach and his priorities: tackling US inflation, boosting employment, enhancing income levels, managing Chinese trade competition and navigating EU economic relations. The Kingdom aims to leverage economic cooperation as a primary channel for engaging with the incoming administration, viewing it as a pathway to secure advanced technology transfers and attract the foreign investment crucial for achieving the objectives of Vision 2030.

While economic engagement offers significant opportunities, it also presents potential areas of tension due to divergent priorities between Saudi Arabia and the US. Trump’s proposed policies — including new tariffs on Chinese exports, potential trade restrictions on EU and Canadian goods, expanded domestic oil exploration and economic pressure on China and Russia — may conflict with Saudi Arabia’s existing international partnerships. The Kingdom maintains substantial trade and energy relationships with China, India, Russia and the EU, with China serving as its primary oil customer. Additionally, Trump’s support for increased US oil production, aimed at lowering energy prices, could undermine Saudi Arabia’s fiscal objectives by pushing oil prices below the Kingdom’s budgetary targets.

Trump’s laudatory remarks signal a clear diplomatic overture, indicating his readiness to cultivate stronger bilateral ties

Hassan Al-Mustafa

These details are extremely important and influential, not just in Saudi-US relations but also in the latter’s relations with the entire world.

The Middle East peace process represents another domain where Saudi-US engagement may simultaneously foster collaboration and reveal policy differences. The Kingdom advocates for a comprehensive peace framework grounded in ending Israeli actions against Palestinians, upholding international legal standards and establishing Palestinian sovereignty.

The crown prince has articulated this position unequivocally, declaring the Palestinian issue as Saudi Arabia’s primary regional concern. He has firmly stated that the Kingdom’s diplomatic recognition of Israel remains contingent upon the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Meanwhile, President Trump has his own vision, this week saying that “I think Saudi Arabia will end up being in the Abraham accords.”

Riyadh has established clear conditions for joining the Abraham Accords, centered on securing a verifiable pathway to peace that explicitly guarantees Palestinian statehood. This stance is interlinked with other Saudi priorities, including a US defense pact, civilian nuclear program development and additional bilateral agreements under discussion. The trajectory of Trump’s approach to the two-state solution remains uncertain, with his administration’s position on these fundamental issues likely to emerge in the early stages of his presidency.

The scope of Middle East peace extends beyond the Palestinian issue, encompassing the complex Saudi-Iranian relationship, which saw notable improvement following the March 2023 Beijing Agreement. Through this diplomatic breakthrough, Riyadh aimed to establish a framework for managing bilateral tensions with Tehran, while seeking to curtail Iranian support for militant groups operating within Saudi territory and potential threats to the Kingdom’s critical infrastructure.

The Saudi-Iranian diplomatic thaw, despite proceeding with measured caution, represents a strategic pillar of Saudi foreign policy aimed at preventing military escalation in the Gulf region. This position was articulated by Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan during the World Economic Forum annual summit in Davos, Switzerland, this week. He underscored Saudi Arabia’s commitment to regional conflict prevention, while calling for constructive Iranian engagement in the Gaza ceasefire process. He also expressed confidence that the incoming US administration would not heighten regional military tensions.

Prince Faisal’s remarks reflect Saudi Arabia’s nuanced understanding of the complex dynamics between Washington and Tehran. His address acknowledged that progress in US-Iranian relations requires a pragmatic approach rooted in meaningful dialogue to address multiple interconnected challenges: Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile development and broader regional security concerns affecting both the Arab Gulf states and the wider Middle East. The foreign minister’s message emphasizes Saudi Arabia’s conviction that diplomatic engagement, rather than military confrontation, remains the most viable path forward in resolving these critical issues.

Despite Trump’s rhetoric about potential military action against Iran — a stance aligned with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s preferences — his administration is likely to prioritize economic leverage over military confrontation. This approach would revive the “maximum pressure” strategy, using economic tools to extract concessions from Tehran. Such compromises, while politically costly for Iran, could prove essential in mitigating the regional instability stemming from the aftermath of the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia aims to cultivate constructive engagement with the Trump administration while maintaining its strategic autonomy. The Kingdom will pursue this collaboration without compromising its core economic and political interests, its relationships with major powers like China and Russia or its fundamental prerequisites for normalizing relations with Israel. Drawing on its diplomatic experience, Riyadh possesses the capability to navigate these complexities through pragmatic solutions, trust-building initiatives and win-win proposals that advance mutual interests without generating friction with the incoming White House administration.

• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran.
X: @Halmustafa