Dangers and opportunities in the second age of Trump

Many people say that Donald Trump, the returning US president, is merely making loud noises. My opinion, in short, is that Trump could be anything – a sound bomb or a devastating explosive.

We are facing four years that will probably be extraordinary. They could be the nightmare we fear – Palestinians without land: or the dream – a Palestinian state. His policies may lead to a dangerous regional war with Iran, or he could achieve a regional peace that concludes 40 years of battles and tensions with Iran, both in the Arab world and in the West. He may cause the fall of regimes and widespread chaos, or he could help establish security and peace in the region.

This is not an exaggeration – Trump is an unpredictable figure. We cannot ignore the US president, whether he is mocking or serious. As the poet Al-Mutanabbi said: “If you see the fangs of the lion bared, do not assume the lion is smiling.”

Trump has not yet completed 100 days in office, but he has already dismissed senior officials at the FBI, disrupted the activities of the US Agency for International Development, relocated thousands of its employees, withdrawn from the World Health Organization, and begun using military transport planes to deport undocumented migrants from the US. Some Latin American presidents were forced to receive them. Meanwhile, to avoid US tariffs, the Canadian prime minister quickly deployed about 250,000 military personnel and border guards to prevent smuggling and illegal crossings, and Mexico did the same. In Brussels, headquarters of the EU, meetings have begun to discuss Trump’s intention to withdraw support for Ukraine and to raise tariffs on European goods.

If these actions do not clarify Trump’s character and management style, then what comes next may be even more significant.

Before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington, Trump lifted the ban on selling 2,000lb bombs to Israel, which had been imposed by his predecessor Joe Biden, and announced efforts to prevent Iran from selling its oil.

Now that we have “gotten to know” the US president, who is now more powerful than before, we must reassess the issues he will engage with.

Rejecting engagement with him comes at a high price. While Trump has repeatedly stated that he will not use military force against his adversaries or those who disagree with him, he still has the ability to harm those who oppose him. Trump wields two weapons. The first is economic and financial: for example, he can raise tariffs, but fortunately, Arab exports to the US are limited. He can also cut aid, and the Arab countries that receive assistance must reorganize their affairs if they intend not to cooperate with him. They should not expect alternative support from Arab or other nations, as Trump will punish governments and international banks that assist those who defy him.

The second weapon is political. Disputes with Trump will be exploited by opposition forces. Groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, for example, may try to take advantage of the political climate. On one hand, they will incite opposition to Trump and embarrass Arab governments through propaganda campaigns aimed at weakening them. At the same time, they will seek to get closer to Trump’s administration and cooperate with it for the same goal, just as they did in 2011.

The two main regional issues for Trump’s administration are Iran and Palestine. Several crises stem from them, including Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.

If Israel is determined to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it will have to wait until the failure of Trump’s negotiations, which are likely to start soon. However, failure is not guaranteed: it would not be surprising if the Iranian leadership cooperated with Trump, as it has already lost more than half of its external power following the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah’s capabilities and the fall of the Assad regime. Additionally, the pressure on Iran will intensify as Trump has decided to reinstate the ban on its oil sales. It is also likely that he will put the threat of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities on the table, which would strip Iran of all its bargaining chips.

The most urgent and dangerous issue is Trump’s project to empty Gaza of its population. More on this to come.

- Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this first appeared.