German elections important for Middle East

Germany will hold federal elections on Feb. 23. Last week, during a discussion at Oxford University, a well-informed speaker who advises European governments responded to my question about how the results of the 2024 European Parliament elections may affect relations with the Middle East. He commented that the topic was not high on the agenda of the region’s countries. Arguably, the forthcoming German elections also do not seem to be on the agenda of Middle Eastern countries’ governments.
However, this assumption ignores how Middle Eastern governments have been revising their international relations and I suggest that this should be regarded as a golden opportunity to plan and execute strategic policies toward the EU (and especially its traditional heavyweights). The bloc is struggling, especially with economic and immigration pressures, meaning new perspectives are more likely to receive a hearing.
Now is the time for offering “win-win” scenarios, when the Middle East’s energy-rich countries, with their accumulated experience of dealing with the most challenging matters in Germany (such as radicalism and terrorism), can boost relations between Europe and the region.
Who are the main candidates in these elections in Germany and whose policies could Middle Eastern governments deal with profitably? What are their agendas and, based on these, what are the potential areas for collaboration?
Briefly, there are five candidates who aim to become German chancellor. At this stage, Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union leads the polls. Merz’s slogan is “A Germany we can be proud of again.” He suggests restricting immigration and cutting taxes. He has also promised to boost Germany’s aid to Ukraine.
Olaf Scholz, who has been chancellor for the past three years, heads the Social Democratic Party, but his government has struggled, largely because of the impact of the Ukraine war.
Alice Weidel, of the far-right Alternative for Germany, backs the deportation of migrants and has suggested ending the sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, the Greens’ Robert Habeck, who was vice chancellor and economy minister in the Scholz government, instead propounds strong support for Ukraine.
Sahra Wagenknecht of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance suggests closer relations with Russia and offers strong support to her base in eastern Germany. Her policies include strict limits on asylum and immigration.
In short, the candidates’ manifestos focus on the economic crisis and political orientation toward Russia, as well as possible reforms in immigration and asylum — all topics that are very much related with the Middle East.
The German economy is Europe’s biggest, but these days it seems in need of revival. External actors, including Middle Eastern countries, have an unusual opening to provide solutions. The region’s energy-rich countries might be useful in overcoming several of the challenges that Germany is facing, such as its energy crisis, in addition to becoming key investors who could bolster the German economy in such challenging times. These mutually beneficial shifts could also be used for building diplomatic dialogue.

External actors, including Middle Eastern countries, have an unusual opening to provide solutions. 

Dr. Diana Galeeva

Previously, Germany largely built its economic relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries based on non-energy exports, in the infrastructure, manufacture and service sectors. However, because of the Ukraine war and the energy crisis — which seems set to continue, perhaps not least because several of Germany’s chancellor candidates want to boost aid to Ukraine — Qatar and Germany in 2022 signed a declaration to boost their energy collaborations through trade in hydrogen and liquefied natural gas. And at the beginning of this month, Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power and Germany’s SEFE energy company signed a deal to deliver green hydrogen to Europe. Under the deal, Saudi Arabia aims to export 200,000 tonnes of green hydrogen to the continent by 2030.
Another possible area for collaboration relates to the series of deadly terrorist attacks, including those in Mannheim, Aschaffenburg, Solingen and Magdeburg, which have put pressure on the mainstream parties to reform Germany’s asylum and immigration rules. There will be pressure on the incoming government to introduce new and effective ways to control immigration.
Counterintuitively, at a time of increased social tension, as most of the suspects in these attacks are from Middle Eastern countries, I suggest that there are opportunities for the region’s moderate nations to build constructive relations based on their expertise on antiterrorism and antiradical reforms. Contrary to some populist narratives, violence is not integral to these suspects’ ethnic background, but a radicalization of it. Centrist candidates, in particular, might welcome dialogue that makes the discussion less binary and more political and human instead.
The countries of the Middle East have strong experience in this regard, which might be helpful for Germany and the rest of Europe. For example, at the UN General Assembly in 2017, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the current UAE deputy prime minister and foreign minister, stressed his country’s resolve to fight terrorism, suggesting working together to eradicate the threat and its radical ideological roots. This becomes especially urgent with the implications of the Gaza and Lebanon wars.
Finally, regional transformations offer further opportunities for closer collaboration. As a result of the Angela Merkel government’s decision in 2015-2016 not to close Germany’s borders to refugees fleeing Syria’s civil war, there are about 1 million people with a Syrian passport in Germany. Jens Spahn, deputy leader of the CDU, has suggested chartering planes and giving Syrians €1,000 ($1,049) to return to their home country following the collapse of the Assad government. Weidel has suggested that “whoever in Germany celebrates ‘free Syria’ obviously has no reason any more to have fled.”
Both the German and French foreign ministers have met Syria’s new leaders. Germany’s Annalena Baerbock spoke (guardedly) of Europe’s support for Syria’s transitional government in Damascus, stating: “A political new beginning between Europe and Syria, between Germany and Syria, is possible.”
It seems that, using the example of collaboration with a new Syrian government to deal with immigration and asylum, it could also be useful to form strategies and future policies with Syria and beyond. In other words, while acknowledging the failures and mistakes of previous German governments, it might be useful for the next government, in collaboration with Middle Eastern actors and stakeholders, to form effective policies toward immigration and refugee problems. This might set a good example for other EU countries that face similar problems.
To sum up, the most challenging topics for German society today include issues that are closely connected to the existing resources and accumulated knowledge of the Middle East. These could be harnessed through “win-win” policies. This is why the elections are important to the region and could prove to be a golden opportunity to cement relations with a troubled European heavyweight.

• Dr. Diana Galeeva is an academic visitor to Oxford University. X: @Dr_GaleevaDiana