Turkiye sits on the fence amid US-EU split

On the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UN General Assembly this week convened a special session that witnessed a major diplomatic split between Washington and its Western allies. The split highlighted the shifting alliances within transatlantic relations under President Donald Trump amid the emergence of new geopolitical blocs.

While UNGA resolutions are not legally binding, they are seen as a reflection of global sentiment. That is why the outcome of the European-backed Ukraine vote was particularly striking. The US confronted its traditionally close European allies and opposed a resolution that called out Moscow’s aggression.

The vote followed direct talks between US and Russian officials, which excluded Ukraine, and coincided with Trump’s meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Washington. The split over the Ukraine vote was seen as the biggest divide between Western powers at the UN since the 2003 Iraq War, and possibly even more critical.

In the case of the Iraq War, Western powers, particularly the US and EU countries such as France and Germany, were deeply divided over the decision to invade. This division was a major moment of friction among the Western allies, but ultimately it was a policy disagreement centered on a specific issue — whether to go to war in Iraq. The split over Ukraine is more than just a policy disagreement, it signals a fundamental paradigm shift within the Western alliance.

Trump’s return has brought with it challenges for both Turkiye and the EU. In Trump’s first term, the US and Europe found themselves on different sides of international issues, from the Middle East peace process to the Iran nuclear deal. The first Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and its trade disputes with Brussels dealt a severe blow to EU-US relations. At its worst point, European officials even questioned, “With friends like that (Trump), who needs enemies?” Today, similar concerns are being voiced in European capitals, with growing uncertainty about what lies ahead.

The split over the Ukraine vote was seen as the biggest divide between Western powers at the UN since the 2003 Iraq War

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Increasing anti-Americanism on Europe’s streets due to Trump’s policies also have parallels in Turkiye. Among the most pressing issues between Ankara and Washington is America’s support for the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are dominated by the Kurdish YPG, an offshoot of the PKK — a US and EU-designated terrorist group that Turkiye has been fighting for the last four decades. On the other side, Turkiye and the EU still have issues waiting to be resolved and most of these are structural in nature.

The policies of the Trump administration are now increasingly posing risks to the mutual interests of Turkiye and Europe. This has made the latter realize that collective action is needed for dealing with the US. Thus, the EU’s stance not only indicates that Turkiye and Europe are politically and economically interdependent, but it also shows that Ankara and Brussels can put their bilateral issues aside in the face of a common threat.

Here, the well-known theory of “balance of threat” comes to mind. This theory, first proposed by Stephen M. Walt in the 1980s, says states’ alliance behavior is determined by the threat they perceive from other states. Both Turkiye and the EU have the sense that they are aboard the same ship, facing common challenges and having to cope with American waves together.

Coming back to the Ukraine vote, despite the US’ opposition, the resolution was adopted. Ninety-three countries voted in favor, 18 against and 65 abstained, with 17 countries choosing not to participate. This breakdown is significant, as it shows a clear division in the global balance of power, with the majority standing against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The policies of the Trump administration are now increasingly posing risks to the mutual interests of Turkiye and Europe

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

But when comparing this vote to a similar one held in February 2023, it is clear there has been a shift. In 2023, 141 countries voted in favor of condemning Russia’s invasion, with the US leading that bloc. The difference in voting patterns of the US highlights the broader changes taking place, which have led to the growing US-EU split when it comes to their approach to Russia.

Ankara has aligned with European capitals in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, voting in favor of both UNGA resolutions. However, throughout this war, Turkiye has played a crucial balancing role between Moscow and the West, bolstered by the close personal diplomacy between the Turkish and Russian leaders. The vote at the UN clearly shows that Ankara aligns more closely with the EU than the US. Turkiye’s position signals a significant shift in its foreign policy approach to the transatlantic alliance.

Turkiye is of importance to the visions of both the US and the EU in the region. For Washington, Turkiye has been a critical strategic ally and a “model” partner since the Cold War, having the second-largest army within NATO after the US. For Europe, Turkiye is an integral part of the continent’s security framework and a candidate for membership since the inception of the European bloc.

Historically, Turkiye’s ties with the US and the EU have not proceeded along parallel paths, but they were intimately linked. However, this dynamic has shifted, with the growing rifts between the US and the EU leaving Ankara with strong incentives to sit on the fence for at least the next four years. The coming years will be critical for Ankara as it navigates its position between the competing interests of the US and the EU.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz