Netanyahu is gambling with Israeli captives’ lives

Most Israelis know by now that almost all Israeli captives in Hamas’ custody since Oct. 7, 2023, could have been released many months ago. They also know that one man has stood in the way of an agreement for their safe return, just as they are convinced that those who perished under the Gaza rubble died because of that man’s intransigence, as he put his self-interest above those of his citizens.

Benjamin Netanyahu has never wanted the war to end, while knowing full well that prolonging it would mean that none of the captives would return alive.

In fact, and despite the national trauma caused by Hamas’ attack on southern Israel, poll after poll — going back as far as the summer of last year — found that the majority of Israelis wanted a hostage-for-ceasefire deal to be reached sooner rather than later.

Egypt, Qatar and the US tried a number of times to push for a deal. By the admission of senior Israeli negotiators, Netanyahu backed down at the last moment. In the process, tens of thousands of innocent Palestinian lives were lost, as well as tens of the Israeli captives as a result of Israel’s indiscriminate bombings.

Donald Trump’s November victory changed the dynamics. President Joe Biden never mustered the courage to put a stop to the Gaza genocide. Trump had a different approach. He threatened all parties and told them to come to a deal before his Jan. 20 inauguration. Netanyahu, wary of provoking Trump, agreed to a deal: a three-phase ceasefire agreement that would eventually end the war, pull the Israeli army from war-torn Gaza and free all remaining captives — dead and alive.

But Netanyahu could never be trusted. Phase one, which expired on Saturday, saw the release of more than 30 Israelis and hundreds of Palestinians, including women and children, held in Israeli prisons. While Hamas said it was ready to begin negotiations on phase two of the agreement under the auspices of Qatar, Egypt and the US, Netanyahu was getting ready to do an about-face.

On Sunday, he announced that Israel was halting the passage of all humanitarian aid into Gaza because Hamas had refused to accept a US proposal to extend phase one of the agreement for a few more weeks. Netanyahu wanted Hamas to release more captives without Israel committing to withdraw from Gaza and end the war, as was stipulated in phase two. He claimed that he got US backing for the proposal, even though it was unclear if Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, had made such a proposal. He called off a trip to the region since the two sides had failed to begin the second round of negotiations.

Egypt and Qatar accused Israel of violating the ceasefire deal. Hamas charged that Israel had violated the first phase tens of times already. It prevented heavy earthmoving equipment from entering the enclave and failed to deliver thousands of caravans to replace makeshift temporary homes.

On Monday, Netanyahu doubled down, threatening to cut off water and fuel supplies to Gaza, while hinting that Israel was ready to resume its aggression against the enclave. His ministers said Israel would force tens of thousands of Gazans to again be displaced toward the south of the territory.

The UN and other aid agencies warned that cutting off humanitarian supplies would bring back the specter of mass starvation. The EU, Canada, Russia, Japan and others called on Israel to maintain the ceasefire and allow peace talks to resume. In Israel, thousands of Israelis, especially the families of freed captives and those who had been released, protested against their own government’s decision to suspend talks.

Netanyahu made an impassioned attempt to explain his decision, but he had run out of excuses. The opposition said Netanyahu wanted to resume the war to save his coalition from collapsing. Ultranationalist minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned when the government embraced the ceasefire agreement. Now, the ultrareligious Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to bring the coalition down if phase two of the deal is negotiated.

Netanyahu sees war and chaos as the guarantors for his political survival. He has sanctioned the wholesale destruction of West Bank refugee camps, resulting in the displacement of more than 50,000 Palestinians, to keep his far-right partners in line.

And now the PM is threatening to bring down the ceasefire agreement to preempt a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza without the mass displacement of more than 2 million Palestinians. That plan, which will be presented to President Trump as an alternative to the fanciful Gaza Riviera scheme, which the US president proposed a few weeks ago, will weaken Netanyahu’s arguments to resume the war.

Netanyahu cannot count on the backing of the Israeli public. The mood in Israel is not in sync with his agenda.

Osama Al-Sharif

There is every reason to believe that, without Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu when the Israeli premier visited Washington last month, the ceasefire deal would have moved on to the second phase and delivered a coda to more than 15 months of bloodshed.

While Trump has promised to end the war in Gaza, his administration has shown little interest in pushing for a genuine path to a settlement that would give the Palestinians an honorable peace. Israel has dispatched tanks into the West Bank and its military has demolished tens of houses in refugee camps after gutting civilian infrastructure, but the US administration is yet to comment on this blatant violation of international law.

Netanyahu believes he can manipulate the Trump White House and US Congress to support his forever war strategy to keep him in power. However, Netanyahu cannot count on the backing of the Israeli public. The mood in Israel is not in sync with his agenda. The Israeli public wants to see all captives returned and the ceasefire agreement honored. They know that, if the war resumes, the remaining living captives will soon be dead. They know that Hamas has kept its side of the deal and that Netanyahu has not.

The Trump White House should differentiate between what Netanyahu, the seemingly charismatic manipulator, wants and what the Israeli public demands at this stage. It is worth noting that Netanyahu is attacking his own security and military chiefs simply because they are siding with the Israeli people. A return to war would be catastrophic for the Palestinians and the remaining Israeli captives.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010