What Turkiye’s Kurdish process means for the broader region

In a historic call, the PKK’s imprisoned ringleader Abdullah Ocalan last month urged the Kurdish militant group to lay down its arms, disband and bring an end to its decades-long conflict with the Turkish state. Resolving the conflict will not be without obstacles, given its complexity and the involvement of several stakeholders. However, if the PKK heeds its leader’s call and the process progresses positively, it could not only offer a significant opportunity to reshape Turkiye’s domestic politics, but also its foreign policy — most importantly, its relations with neighboring countries that have Kurdish populations, namely Syria, Iraq and Iran. So, what does this process mean for the region and beyond?
The call to dissolve the PKK came at a time when Syria had entered a new phase, after the four-decade-old Assad regime, which had long used the PKK as a tool against Turkiye, had collapsed. Historically, Syria has served as a key haven for PKK militants to train and launch attacks on Turkiye. The PKK’s Syrian branch, the YPG, had also strengthened its position in the face of Syria being a failed state, prompting Turkiye to launch several military operations in order to eliminate the threat Ankara deemed that it posed. While the US and the EU have designated the PKK as a terrorist organization, the Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the YPG, has not been classified as such. Moreover, it has been seen by Washington as a key actor in the fight against Daesh since 2014.
Despite the SDF commander’s claim that Ocalan’s call does not apply to the group, as it considers itself distinct from the PKK, the SDF is evolving its strategy given the change in leadership in the Syrian Arab Republic. It aims to resolve issues with the new Damascus government in order to integrate itself into the new Syrian security structure. With the shifting balance of power in Syria and change of policies in the US, regional states and nonstate actors alike have started to reassess their strategies.
Beyond Syria, the success of this process will also impact the presence of the PKK in Iraq, especially at a time when Ankara and Baghdad are strengthening their security and political ties. In the past, one of the most contentious issues between the two countries was Turkiye’s military operations against the PKK in Iraq, which Baghdad viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.
However, if the PKK dissolves and disarms in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq, it would significantly alter the security dynamics between Turkiye and Iraq, removing the primary point of contention from their burgeoning relationship. In northern Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government has also welcomed Ocalan’s call, describing it as an important step toward achieving stability in the region.

If all PKK-affiliated Kurdish groups were to heed Ocalan’s call, it could mark a significant breakthrough for all parties.

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

The dissolution of the PKK would also have implications for Iran, where the Kurdistan Free Life Party, founded on the PKK’s ideology, has maintained a ceasefire with Tehran since 2011. Ocalan’s call for “all groups to lay down their arms” extends to all factions, including in Iran, signaling a broader regional shift. In the past, Iran has exploited Kurdish groups to counter Turkiye’s influence in the region. The end of the PKK in the region would likely compel Iran to change its strategy toward groups such as the Kurdistan Free Life Party. Moreover, Turkish-Iranian tensions soared last week following Ankara’s warning to Tehran not to support the SDF in Syria.
In Turkiye’s domestic political arena, analysts suggest that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is pushing for a constitutional amendment to potentially further extend his tenure, will need support beyond his own party. Securing new coalition partners — especially from the pro-Kurdish parties — will be crucial. While the previous peace process with the PKK, which took place between 2011 and 2014, collapsed due to developments in Syria and domestic political struggles, this new call comes at a time of unprecedented political and security shifts in the region. If all PKK-affiliated Kurdish groups were to heed Ocalan’s call to disarm and dissolve, it could mark a significant breakthrough for all parties, bringing the stability that all these regional actors have desired for decades.
This renewed peace process is also viewed as a means to strengthen not only Turkiye’s economy but also those of Iraq and Syria, while removing a significant barrier to their reintegration into a Turkiye-led regional economy. Several projects are already on the agenda, including the Development Road scheme with Iraq.
The PKK was both a threat and a tool in the hands of previous governments in Syria, Iran and Iraq, but it was also used by Israel as a geopolitical tool in regional conflicts. For instance, Israel has historically supported the Kurdish autonomous regions in Syria and Iraq, viewing them as potential tools against Iran. Israeli policy toward the Kurds remains closely linked to its vision for a broader Middle East. This approach is seen as a threat by all regional states, not only now but even decades ago.
With the emergence of a new Syrian government, the weakening of Iran’s influence and Washington’s plan to end its military strategy in the region, the peace process comes on to the agenda at a pivotal moment. While all regional actors have expressed support for the call, cautious optimism remains. Only time will tell whether the call for PKK disarmament will initiate a new era of peace, bringing an end to four decades of conflict.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz