Iran’s painful scenes and decisive moment

The veteran politician said the latest American strikes against Houthi positions may be the last message from the Trump administration to Iran before the decisive moment arrives for its nuclear program. He said the region may be headed toward a major crisis should the Iranian supreme leader fail to take a big and painful decision that would “dismantle the nuclear program and abandon the regional proxies, especially after the blows they were dealt.”

Donald Trump’s message to the Iranian leadership reminded me of what took place in the early 2000s between the US and Libya. At that time, Muammar Qaddafi requested that Foreign Minister Abdel Rahman Shalgham convince his friend, Algerian President Abdulaziz Bouteflika, to intervene with George W. Bush to improve relations between Washington and Tripoli. Bouteflika agreed and came back to Shalgham with the following message: “You either remove the weapons of mass destruction or he (Bush) will destroy everything without discussion.” Shalgham relayed the message to Qaddafi, who told him: “You are afraid and a coward.”

After considering his options, Qaddafi ultimately went with the one that would save his regime instead of kick off a confrontation with America. Saif Al-Islam Qaddafi contacted British intelligence with a message: “I am Saif Al-Islam, Muammar Qaddafi’s son. I want to talk to you about the weapons of mass destruction.” When a meeting was set up, he said he wanted an improvement in relations in return for cooperation. After that, Libya dismantled its centrifuges and handed them over to the Americans. Libya also severed ties with organizations and parties that were viewed as its proxies.

Iran is nothing like Libya, not in its regime or the way it takes decisions. It is a major regional power that boasts human, military and economic means. But it is approaching the moment of truth now that Trump has returned to the White House. It has for decades avoided sliding into a direct confrontation with the American military machine, preferring instead to undermine American influence in the region by mobilizing its proxies.

But what if it finds itself in the same situation faced by Libya: having to choose between the safety of its regime or waging a confrontation with a foregone conclusion?

Politicians and analysts say that Iran is now facing its most difficult challenge since the victory of Ayatollah Khomeini’s revolution, or at least since the end of the long war with Saddam Hussein’s regime. Ever since his return to the White House, Trump has been taking decisions that impact the whole world. He is running the world through social media posts. He is breaking rules that were previously viewed as unbreakable, from launching trade wars, imposing tariffs and sanctions, and threatening to change maps and balances of power.

Iran is a major regional power that boasts human, military and economic means. But it is approaching the moment of truth

Ghassan Charbel

The veteran politician spoke of painful images that Iran must pause at. Hamas launched its Al-Aqsa Flood Operation and the residents of Gaza made unimaginable sacrifices, but the enclave is completely destroyed and the issue of Hamas’ weapons is on the table. If the disarmament of Hamas is not possible at the moment, then the international community will demand its removal from the military conflict with Israel for several years to ensure that the Gaza reconstruction starts on the right path. It is evident that Hamas has agreed to a reduced role in Gaza after the hostage and prisoner exchange phase is complete.

The politician noted that Iran has been generous in supporting Hamas, but it is incapable of saving it. He also noted that Hezbollah launched its “support front” but could not change the course of the war in Gaza and lost its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah — who it is seemingly incapable of replacing. Moreover, the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons is on the table, not just in the demands of the international community, but the majority of the Lebanese people too. Iran could not save Hezbollah and its military presence in Syria. It could not prevent the collapse of the regime of its ally Bashar Assad and Russia did not volunteer to help.

The politician then highlighted two more painful images facing Tehran. The first is its inability to continue to trade direct blows with Israel. The war on Gaza and Lebanon demonstrated Israel’s military and technological superiority. It can run rampant across the skies of countries near and far. The second is the vow by the man who ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani to use all means necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring an insurance policy for its regime: a nuclear bomb.

The politician noticed that a new balance of power has emerged in the region and that Iran appears incapable of changing developments in its favor, not in Syria, Lebanon or Gaza. He noted that Iran’s diminished role in Syria was coupled with Turkiye’s rising influence there, which only makes things more complicated for Tehran.

Trump has also reimposed his “maximum pressure” policy on Iran. The outcomes of the wars in the region all favor this policy. The latest American raids against the Houthis are like a demand on Iran to quickly reach realistic conclusions from the painful scenes it is witnessing.

Soleimani had at one point drawn up his country’s line of defense in the region. He was able to breach Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The uprooting of the Syrian link from the so-called resistance axis has severed this line of defense.

Developments are unfolding rapidly in the region. New balances of power and roles are emerging. America’s Trump is playing a decisive role in the region. Russia is focused on reaping a greater reward in Ukraine. The supreme leader is confronted with a difficult choice to receive a certificate of good behavior when it comes to its nuclear file and refraining from rebuilding its resistance axis and mobilizing its proxies. The decisive moment is approaching.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.