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A serious escalation took place on the Lebanese-Syrian border last week, when armed men entered Syria and kidnapped three soldiers. The soldiers were taken back to Lebanon and executed. One of them was reportedly stoned to death, with the attack captured on video. The interim Syrian government accused Hezbollah of being responsible. Hezbollah denied the accusations.
The Syrian army fired on Lebanon in response to the incident. The Lebanese army fired back over the border to Syria. A ceasefire was reached on Monday after two days of exchanges of fire. However, the situation remains tense and fluid. The chances are that these clashes will be repeated unless there is a comprehensive understanding between Lebanon and Syria on the border issue and an agreement between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah on their military capabilities and activities.
The situation between Lebanon and Syria is more complex than it looks. On the surface, Lebanon should accept and deal with whatever government is in place in Damascus. Nevertheless, the Lebanese deep state had strong ties to the Assad regime, which had placed Lebanon under its tutelage since the Taif Accord and had infiltrated the security apparatus. This is why the new government in Damascus is very wary of the security apparatus in Lebanon.
During the Syrian war, the Lebanese government generally had a negative view of the Syrian opposition. Members of the opposition were jailed and accused of terrorism. Defectors from Bashar Assad’s army were returned to the regime’s claws and faced a tragic fate. Hence, the mistrust is visceral.
The Syrian government is very suspicious of the Lebanese army and the country’s security apparatus.
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
On the sidelines of this month’s emergency Arab summit on Gaza, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. Various topics were discussed, including the borders between the two countries. However, the events of last week show that the relationship has not yet been streamlined. The ties between Syria and Lebanon will not be streamlined until those between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah are in order.
So far, Lebanon has committed to the ceasefire and to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which states that all militias should be disarmed and that the Lebanese army should have a monopoly over the possession of arms. Nevertheless, the Lebanese state has not reached a comprehensive agreement with Hezbollah.
It is important to note that, beyond its military capabilities, Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement are the sole representatives of the Shiite community in the Lebanese parliament. So, beyond being a militia, Hezbollah is also a political party. And it has comprehensive economic activities and offers social services to the Shiite community.
Today in Lebanon, the issues of Hezbollah’s arms and “muqawama” (resistance) are creating a point of contention among the different Lebanese factions. While some want to see Hezbollah disarmed once and for all to start the process of state-building, others say that the armed group is still relevant. The latter’s rationale is that the Israelis are still occupying part of Lebanon and are still violating Lebanese airspace and sovereignty to conduct airstrikes inside the country.
So far, there has been no clear agreement with the group on what its role will be in the coming period. The government does not seem to have a clear roadmap on how to deal with the group. While Aoun’s inaugural address in January and last month’s ministerial declaration both stressed the monopoly of the state in terms of the possession and use of arms, the Hezbollah issue has not been properly tackled.
The state has not gone into detail on how it intends to achieve the disarming of Hezbollah. Will it agree a timetable with the group or will it barge into every known Hezbollah location and confiscate the arms by force? This is quite a delicate issue and if it is not conducted carefully and in an orderly manner, it could lead to internal unrest.
The ties between Syria and Lebanon will not be streamlined until those between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah are in order.
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
What guarantees can the Lebanese state give to the group that, once it disarms, Israel will not go after it? What guarantee is there that it will not face the same fate as the Lebanese Forces after the end of the civil war, when it was severely weakened and the army finished it off and went after its leadership?
Also, what mechanism will be put in place to make sure that Hezbollah does not rebuild its arsenal? For now, the airport is sealed for the group, so it is still hoping to find routes via Syria. This is why the skirmishes that occurred last week are likely to be repeated unless there is a clear and comprehensive agreement between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah.
On top of that, as long as Iran wants to create disturbances in Syria, it will use Hezbollah. This is why the Lebanese state should strike an agreement with the group regarding its relations with Iran. If the Lebanese state does not want to accept a foreign proxy on its territory, it should ask the group to define its connection with Iran.
In a nutshell, unless the Lebanese state has an in-depth discussion with Hezbollah, the clashes seen last week are likely to recur. The relationship between Lebanon and Syria is directly linked to the Lebanese state’s relationship with Hezbollah.
- Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.