Having been caught napping, will Europe wake up in time?

The last few weeks may be a very short time to judge, but the Europeans are waking up to their worst nightmare: one that means they must be self-sufficient in military and intelligence and resilience terms, as the indispensable US power looks to be less reliable both today and in the future.

A coalition of the willing, new joint defense funds, military procurement above 2 percent of gross domestic product and larger debt ratios are only the beginning if Europe is to prove quickly able to stand on its own feet militarily and to ensure the stability of the continent.

The travails witnessed in Brussels, Paris, London, Berlin and elsewhere in the last few weeks point to a rapid reshuffle under fire of the strategic positioning of nations that until recently led the Western alliance of freedom and democracy. Now they must raise their game to format a new security umbrella to protect not only their borders and way of life, but also the tenets that — like it or loathe it — have made up the Western world and its quasi-power and prosperity.

Until recently, it was inconceivable that the NATO umbrella over Europe would be questioned. But that is another norm that has been broken

Mohamed Chebaro

Look at Germany, for example. Never did we imagine that the impetus for Germany rearming would come from the necessity to save Europe and democracy not from Russia, China or other forces, but from an emerging US worldview that deconstructs its own democratic system and institutions. With that, it is damaging the standing of the Western world, which is anchored in respect for personal freedom, democracy and the rule of law and which was conceived and fought for by the US itself.

German lawmakers voting in favor of a €500 billion ($541 billion) injection to do whatever it takes to increase its defense spending and improve its military capability shows a nation rising to the challenge of our times and ditching its historic post-Second World War caution and its complacency in one stroke. We still need to wait and see if the current right, left and even green consensus will go all the way and overhaul Germany’s defense doctrine, which has long been subcontracted to a superpower that was thought to be a friend but that many now fear may be an adversary.

Until recently, it was inconceivable that the NATO umbrella over Europe would be questioned, especially after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022. But that is another norm that has been broken. US President Donald Trump’s friendly 90-minute conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week seems to have irked the Europeans and spurred them to entertain the idea of building a Western alliance minus the US.

Until recently, the big three European nations — the UK, France and Germany — were trying to hug the US to ensure it remained the cornerstone of Ukrainian and European defense, through NATO of course. But every day that passes is another day wasted, another delay to the firing up of the European engine through a new body that can be relied on for the continent’s defense alongside NATO. It is becoming evident that Trump has caught the Europeans napping in ways that should have never been allowed and which reflect extremely badly on the UK, France, Germany and others.

The history of alliances in Europe is riddled with challenges amid complex national and economic landscapes. And the big three ought to be careful about what they might end up aspiring to, as it might draw pushback from all sides, especially a combative US administration.

These countries, making up an “improbable three,” have their own handicaps. The trio is made up of a conservative Germany that is ready to destroy the orthodoxies it usually defends, a centrist French president without a parliamentary majority, and a British prime minister leading the smallest armed forces the UK has had since the Napoleonic wars. They are having to contend with issues that were assumed to have been consigned to history, such as nationalism, populism, fascism, territorial land grabs and charismatic, democratically elected tyrants.

Never did I — when I thought of leaving war-torn Lebanon four decades ago and making Europe, the land of human rights, liberties, freedoms and empathic government, my home — think that one day those values, despite their many shortfalls, would be challenged and put at risk of withering away.

Another challenge for Europe is how far its leadership is willing to go to champion the defense of democracy and freedom that many believe are being abandoned at speed by Trump 2.0.

There is an opening for Europe to defend democracy and freedom, and its leadership ought to take it while others are turning their backs

Mohamed Chebaro

It is not an exaggeration to say that the defense of democracy, freedom and the “old” world order, as conceived by the US and European nations after the Second World War, is craving a new, vocal and authoritative leadership that is capable of fending off the enemies within, as well as those on its eastern flank.

It seems like Europe should put its faith in the leadership of the improbable three to help it carefully navigate the old alliances, even if their mightiest members are showing adversarial signs, and uphold the commitment to Ukraine’s defense. European countries also need to raise their independent defense capabilities, which are anchored in the notion of defending democracy and the freedoms protected by the rule of law, no matter how weakened it may seem today.

If anything, the comments by US special envoy Steve Witkoff should reassure the European leaders that they will be on the right side of history by leading this change. Witkoff’s attacks on Starmer and the other European leaders’ efforts to ringfence any future peace in Ukraine as a mere “posture and a pose,” while belittling them by saying they “all got to be like Winston Churchill,” reflects the true posture of the new White House. In the same interview, Witkoff praised Putin and claimed that he liked him, mirroring his president’s many overtures toward the Russian leader.

Europe is crying out for leadership — someone to navigate its ship through the turbulent waters of the post-US-dominated unipolar world order. The improbable three have to follow John Maynard Keynes’ advice that, “When the facts change, I change my mind — what do you do, sir?” And the answer should no doubt be that Europe will prove the American special envoy wrong. There is an opening for Europe to defend democracy and freedom, and its leadership ought to take it while others are turning their backs.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.