Israeli aggression pushing Syria into Turkiye’s arms

Israel last week bombed Syrian military bases, claiming that it was a warning for Turkiye to keep its assets away. However, Tel Aviv does not understand that its belligerence only increases Syria’s need for Turkish protection.

Syria condemned the unprovoked and unjustified strikes. However, Israel does not care. Its military success — namely decapitating Hezbollah’s leadership — has increased its confidence and arrogance. The Israelis now feel they can subjugate everyone around them. In addition to its military success, Israel is backed by a new US administration that will empower it like no other administration before. Therefore, it plans to take advantage by maximizing its gains and setting new parameters over the course of the four-year window it now has.

Subjugating neighboring states and emerging as the regional hegemon is becoming increasingly clear as Israel’s intended goal. This way, it will impose its will on everyone and be free to move whenever and wherever it wants within the neighborhood. Israeli leaders have even bluntly spoken about a new Middle East — a Middle East that they shape and control.

Though its declared enemy is Iran, Turkiye is also bad news for Israel. In fact, any strong country in the neighborhood is bad news for Israel. Last week’s strike was supposed to be a warning for Turkiye to keep its hands off Syria and leave the country as a playground for Israel. Tel Aviv is flexing its muscles in front of the Turks, while its discourse is saying it does not seek confrontation. However, Israel’s actions are inviting a confrontation. Its continuous harassment of Syria and breaches of the country’s sovereignty make Turkish intervention a necessity and not a luxury for Damascus.

The Israeli aggression started as soon as the rebels took Damascus. Turkiye was not in the picture at that stage. Its allied forces were still in the northeast. According to one Western diplomat I spoke to, Israel went into Syria because it could. The fact that the world remained silent in the face of its atrocities in Gaza, while the West, particularly the US, kept supplying it with arms despite the civilian death toll, gave Israel the impression it could do whatever it wanted whenever it wanted to.

Subjugating neighboring states and emerging as the regional hegemon is becoming increasingly clear as Israel’s intended goal

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

This is bad news for the region, even those countries that have good relations with Israel. Israel is so arrogant that it feels it does not need to have a good relationship with anyone. It can just impose its will on anybody it wants. Though it is in the best interest of Israel to have a good relationship with Egypt, it simply does not seem to care. It is now putting pressure on Cairo to dismantle its military structures in Sinai, while there is a serious threat from the Israeli side to push the Palestinians into that region.

Egypt therefore faces a double threat from Israel. Israel, supported by the Trump administration, has declared its intention to transfer the Gazans to Egypt — and yet they are asking Cairo to remove its reinforcements at the border. Israel last month set up an agency to advance the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. Is it now asking Egypt to clear the way for forcible displacement? In fact, the actions of Israel only make Egypt want to further increase its reinforcements in the Sinai.

Israel is burning bridges with everyone. Countries that were thinking of normalizing with it are now thinking of strengthening ties with their neighbors in order to contain Israeli expansionism. Therefore, Tel Aviv is unlikely to find any allies in the region. With its aggression in Syria, Israel is putting those countries that want Syria to be stable on edge — and this is not only Turkiye. However, for Turkiye, Syria is more than an economic or a political issue, it is a prime security issue.

Israel has been poking the Druze in the south of Syria in order to encourage separatism. This effort did not start with the collapse of the Assad regime, it has been ongoing for several years. It was hoping that the Druze would declare independence, or seek autonomy of some sort, and that Israel would control their entity. This endeavor has largely failed, although it has succeeded in creating some disturbances in Syria.

Meanwhile, Israel’s foreign minister has been in Brussels trying to convince European leaders that Syria needs to become a federation. Of course, it would be a federation in which Tel Aviv would engage with the Kurds and the Druze and create a permanently weak and unstable country. Fortunately, these Israeli calls have not been answered.

Turkiye will not accept a federal Syria. For Ankara, this would be an existential threat. A federal Syria would empower Kurdish separatism at home. When the rebels took over Damascus, Turkiye was reluctant to get involved, but it has now been pushed to interfere. Syrians, on the other hand, were fed up with the Iranian and Russian interference in their country as they want Syria to be a sovereign, independent state.

With such a belligerent neighbor, the Syrians can have no stability without a protector that can create a deterrent to Israel

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

They want to live in a peaceful state. As soon as Ahmad Al-Sharaa took over, he announced that he would comply with the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Israel. Nevertheless, Israel immediately started bombing the country, destroying its military installations. The aggression did not stop there. Israel encroached into the southern part of the country. Hence, with such a belligerent neighbor, the Syrians can have no stability without a protector that can create a deterrent to Israel.

The Syrians, like everyone else, know that Israel does not abide by any agreement. They saw how Tel Aviv last month unilaterally broke the Gaza ceasefire at the end of phase one. How will they believe in any deal with Israel when they are facing an arrogant foe that reneges on its commitments whenever it suits its interests? The logical thinking of Al-Sharaa or anybody else is in his place is to seek to balance them out. Al-Sharaa definitely does not want to be at the mercy of a merciless neighbor. Does Israel think that by bombing Syria it is going to block a defense agreement between Turkiye and Syria? On the contrary, it has pushed Syria to want such a deal even more and to accelerate its implementation.

While Israel is thinking that it can subjugate its neighbors — foes and friends alike — it is pushing everyone on to the same page to face its expansionism. All countries in the region know that, if Syria is subjugated, it will only be a matter of time until they are next.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.