How US-Russia rapprochement can bring stability to Syria

The emerging American-Russian rapprochement will cast its shadow over many conflicts around the world, but nowhere will it be more consequential than in Syria. If US President Donald Trump succeeds in putting his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin on a steady and positive course and secures progress in Ukraine, eyes will turn to other areas. These include Syria, where Russian-American cooperation could be transformative for peace and stability in the country, as well as the region.

Syria entered a new era after the fall of President Bashar Assad in December. However, the Syrian people’s euphoria over their hard-won freedom from an oppressive regime was tempered by the harsh realities of external military and political interference, coupled with economic pressures. The new government, led by interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, is facing a myriad of challenges and uncertainties, internally and beyond its borders.

While Turkiye’s influence in Syria is growing, Israel is also conducting frequent airstrikes deep inside Syrian territory. These actions, which Israeli sources describe as a warning to Ankara, are viewed by many regional experts as provocations that further fragment Syria and threaten its territorial integrity. Israel has already occupied new territories in the Golan Heights and in southern Syria, in addition to the demilitarized zone that was established in 1974.

Regional and great power competition is intensifying over Syria, raising questions about the future roles of both the US and Russia. Will they cooperate to stabilize the country or allow it to be used as an arena to settle scores, fracturing the country further and increasing instability?

Syria presents a compelling opportunity for Washington and Moscow to work together toward common goals

Dr. Amal Mudallali

Syria presents a compelling opportunity for Washington and Moscow to work together toward common goals: maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity, securing the Syrian-Israeli border, preventing any extremist resurgence, and supporting reconstruction. The stability of Syria is critical for the stability of all its neighbors.

Both the US and Russia have forces in Syria. America maintains about 2,000 troops in the country, according to the Department of Defense, supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces in the fight against Daesh. They are based in northeast Syria and in the Tanf garrison close to the borders with Iraq and Jordan. Russia controls two bases, Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base, with the latter giving Moscow its only foothold on the Mediterranean.

The future of both Russian and American forces in Syria is in flux. While the US is considering the future of its military presence in Syria, the Russians are in talks with the Syrian interim government and president to keep its forces in the country. Despite being weakened by the war in Ukraine, Russia is not ready or prepared to leave Syria. It is seeking new terms that will preserve its strategic foothold while adapting to the new political order and reality in Syria.

Despite its weakened influence in the country, Russia still has cards to play. The Syrian president acknowledged as much when he talked about Damascus’ “strategic interests” with Russia. Syria also still needs Russia at the UN Security Council, as a permanent member with influence.

However, some see the future of Russia’s presence in Syria as related to the ongoing peace efforts over Ukraine. The Washington Institute’s Soner Cagaptay sees a presence for Russia in Syria as part of an agreement with Trump, as he said at an Atlantic Council event.

In February, Putin had a “constructive” phone call with Al-Sharaa following Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov’s talks in Damascus about the future of Russia’s military bases and the bilateral relationship. Reuters reported at the time that Israel wants Russia to stay in Syria to counter Turkiye’s growing influence. Ankara has a military presence in the north of Syria, along with strong influence over the government in Damascus, but Israel sees Turkiye’s presence as a threat fueling competition, which poses a serious threat to Syria’s fragile new government.

Experts see in the weakened Russian and Iranian influence in Syria a chance for the US to step in and promote regional cooperation. This can best happen under the American umbrella with the involvement of regional middle powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye working together to stabilize Syria and preserve its unity, according to Shady Harb of Harvard’s Belfer Center.

The US acknowledges the strategic gains of the fall of the Assad regime, but the Trump administration has so far remained cautious and focused on Ukraine, while it is also now beginning negotiations with Iran about its nuclear program, so Syria remains on the back burner.

The lack of clarity from Washington leaves a vacuum, while its sanctions muzzle the economy and the Syrian people

Dr. Amal Mudallali

Washington has yet to define its policy toward post-Assad Syria. Sanctions remain in place and US engagement with the Al-Sharaa government has been limited and marked by skepticism. Trump has not been engaged personally on Syria, but this may soon change. Al-Sharaa is expected to meet Trump and present Syria’s case during his visit to Saudi Arabia this month — a pivotal moment that is hoped will reset the relationship.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week discussed with Trump the situation in Syria and it remains to be seen if the US president will be influenced by Israel’s approach toward Syria or if he will keep an open mind until he hears from the Syrians. In the meantime, it has been reported that Syria was handed a list of conditions that must be met before things can move forward. Until then, the lack of clarity from Washington leaves a vacuum, while its sanctions muzzle the economy and the Syrian people.

The US and Russia have coordinated their respective presences in Syria well over the last decade, working through “routine and professional” deconfliction arrangements, according to the US Department of Defense. It is likely that the two sides will continue to coordinate until there is more clarity on policy and the situation in Syria.

Syria stands at a crossroads. America could change the face of the country and the region for the better. It can preserve Syria’s unity and help it safeguard its territorial integrity by reaching an understanding with Israel that restores the status quo ante on the Golan Heights, with Israel withdrawing to its pre-Dec. 8 lines and preserving the 1974 agreement as the basis that governs the future relationship between the two countries on the border issue. Washington can do this alone or in cooperation with Moscow. The US and Russia can also work together to prevent the return of Iranian influence and the resurgence of extremism. The Syrian government taking steps toward a democratic, diverse and united Syria free of any foreign extremists is a prerequisite for any outside power to help.

It is Washington’s call. It can treat Syria as an opportunity for peace and for rebalancing the region or let it devolve into a battleground for regional powers to gain territory and influence at the expense of America’s interests, as well as the interests of the Syrian state and people. The choice the US makes will determine the fate of Syria and the stability of the Middle East for years to come.

• Dr. Amal Mudallali is an international affairs adviser for Think and a former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.