Le Pen ready to divide France in bid to win power

How to punish a corrupt politician while preventing democracy from being tarnished? And how to prevent an opportunist political party from instilling doubt in the justice system of a country, US-style?

This is the test that is facing France due to the affair of its rising populist politician Marine Le Pen, who was found guilty of diverting EU funds to pay for her party’s political staff, falsely claiming that they were working as assistants to its deputies in the European Parliament.

Last week’s court ruling in Paris led to the sentencing of Le Pen and 24 of her associates belonging to the National Rally party with a myriad of fines, prison terms and bans from campaigning, a ruling that landed like a bombshell in French political life.

It was only normal for the party’s leader and her allies to attack the ruling. It is in the far-right populist playbook everywhere in the democratic Western world to claim to be the victim of a political witch hunt. Some believe that Le Pen’s sentence — she was barred from running for public office for five years, which means sitting on the sidelines in the 2027 French presidential election, which she stood a good chance of winning — was harsh and others believe it was appropriate.

Nowhere has this divide been more visible — and likely to spell more headaches for France as a country — than in the slogans at Sunday’s demonstration organized in support of Le Pen. It was normal that Le Pen, though convicted by a court of law, would evoke decades of fighting injustice and state that she plans to continue to fight like her father, Jean-Marie, did before her.

It is in the far-right populist playbook everywhere in the Western world to claim to be the victim of a political witch hunt

Mohamed Chebaro

But symbolism could not be discarded when thousands of her supporters gathered in central Paris, near the golden dome of Les Invalides and the tomb of Napoleon. They tried to claim her martyrdom through what was billed as a protest, but one could not dismiss that it was mainly electioneering and a campaign rally.

The choice of Les Invalides for the location of the demonstration pointed to a revolution in the making, or at least to the revolutionary mood among National Rally supporters. Louis XIV ordered the building of Les Invalides in recognition of the sacrifices made by the soldiers who fought in his wars. The location reflects some foundational periods in French history. It was the place from which a mob stormed the Bastille prison, using firearms and cannon they had looted from the Hotel des Invalides, during the French Revolution.

Chants heard at the protest referred to Le Pen and her supporters’ defiance. They voiced opposition to the “politically motivated” verdict, adding “Marine for president” and “they won’t steal 2027 from us.” This was reminiscent of the populist defiance of Trumpism and was aimed squarely at the French institutions as a whole. Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 29-year-old protege, made a speech in which he accused France’s judges of trying to silence the opposition and claimed that the date of the verdict was a dark day for France. In fact, it was the day of the protest that was a dark day for France, as more poignant than the allegations were the shirts bearing the slogan “Je suis Marine” (I am Marine) or comparing Le Pen’s situation to that of US President Donald Trump, who, despite being found liable for civil fraud, was able to run for election. So, if Trump could run, why not Le Pen, they asked.

On the other side of the divide, the ruling was clear and necessary, as Le Pen was found guilty of using European Parliament funds to pay party staff in France — a scheme the court described as “a democratic bypass.” Many in this camp believe that French voters understand the issue and respect the ruling and the judiciary’s independence. The voices on this side of the argument were alarmed at Le Pen being offered any favors, such as speeding up or tailoring her appeal to suit her timetable, warning of parallels with the US.

In some anti-Le Pen demonstrations, this attitude resulted in leftist and centrist parties warning that the National Rally had adopted a form of US-style authoritarianism by refusing to bend to the justice system. They said the appeals process should not be sped up to meet the whims of a controversial political party and its convicted leader, even if the National Rally has more than 120 representatives in parliament. Proponents of this view insist that the rule of law must remain supreme and not become optional to suit political arrangements, while clearly alluding that Trump-style political victimization has no place in France.

The National Rally is playing a dangerous game, trying to make people doubt the courts. The populists are twisting the truth

Mohamed Chebaro

What is more dangerous is the game that the National Rally has been playing since the guilty verdict and Le Pen’s sentencing, which is to try to make people doubt the courts. The populists are twisting the truth to suit their goals.

Many in France believe that the party has long wanted to launch a “judicial coup,” as they floated the verdict as a political “execution” in the courts. And with this, it aims to convince voters that the current legal system cannot be trusted. This is the same strategy embraced by Trump in the US: claiming the courts are biased and subject to manipulation and that the system is broken and only the ballot boxes matter.

What comes next for France? Will the republic and its democratic processes survive? Le Pen might be barred, pending an appeal, but her party machine marches on. The question is: will the far right convince the French people that their state cannot be trusted and that the system is as twisted against their interests as America’s?

This is what is at stake for the republic. Can the far right convince enough French voters that justice is no longer neutral and that only they can return the power to the people?

How that question is answered may shape not only the 2027 presidential race — but the future of French democracy.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.