Turkiye’s compartmentalized approach to the Maghreb

The Maghreb, a region that serves as a crucial bridge between the Middle East, Africa and Europe, occupies a significant place in the foreign policy agenda of several regional actors, including Turkiye. Its connections to the Mediterranean, in particular, make it an important region for Ankara’s geopolitical ambitions. Thus, Turkiye’s policy in the Maghreb, which includes the countries of Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco and Libya, is part of its broader “opening up to Africa” initiative, involving economic, energy and military motives.

Turkiye is gradually developing its relations with Algeria, despite several differences, while building stronger ties with Libya, where it is involved both politically and militarily. Ankara also continues to foster economic and security relations with Tunisia and Morocco. However, Turkiye’s engagement with these countries varies based on both sides’ specific interests and the nature of their bilateral relations. Some of these states view Turkiye’s growing engagement in their region as an opportunity, while some approach it with caution.

If we were to categorize Turkiye’s relations, we could argue that it enjoys strong ties with Tunisia and Libya, while its relations with Algeria and Morocco are still developing. Yet, Morocco is a step further forward than Algeria as it seeks to strengthen its defense ties with Turkiye. However, this motive could potentially cause concern in Algeria, as the two Maghreb states remain at odds, particularly over the Western Sahara issue.

Morocco has recently emerged as one of the leading customers of Turkiye’s defense industry and defense cooperation has become the main point of the two countries’ developing relations. Morocco’s military has integrated a fleet of 19 Bayraktar TB2 drones, which it acquired from Turkish defense company Baykar in September 2021. These drones have proven their operational effectiveness.

Some of these states view Turkiye’s growing engagement as an opportunity, while some approach it with caution

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

In November last year, Morocco confirmed its plan to acquire the Akinci model — a high-altitude, long-range drone also produced by Baykar — with the first deliveries expected soon. Rabat has also submitted a request to purchase 200 Turkish Cobra II armored vehicles, valued at about $136 million. For Morocco, strengthening its defense capabilities is part of a broader strategy to modernize its military infrastructure and enhance its security. For Turkiye, gaining Morocco as a new customer bolsters its footprint in the Maghreb’s defense sector.

The strong indications of growing defense collaboration were clear after a recent visit to Morocco by a delegation from Aselsan, Turkiye’s leading defense company. The discussions with Aselsan were centered on the potential acquisition of a next-generation combat management system, which is expected to significantly enhance Morocco’s naval defense capabilities. Aselsan this week secured a $50.7 million contract to supply Morocco with the Koral electronic warfare system.

The strengthening of defense relations with Turkiye is not just about acquiring advanced weaponry — it also reflects Morocco’s ambitions for a stronger position in the Maghreb. Signaling its commitment to this issue, Morocco also recently appointed a military attache to its embassy in Ankara.

While strengthening its ties with Morocco, Turkiye should carefully balance its relations with Algeria, which is neither distant nor an ally for Ankara but plays a crucial role as a strategic gate to Turkiye’s Maghreb policy, in which it has economic, energy and military objectives.

Algeria shares a border with Libya, where Turkiye is trying to consolidate its political and military presence. Within this context, ignoring Algeria would not be a rational policy, but developing closer ties with it is equally complex. While Turkiye’s relationship with Algeria presents opportunities, it also has challenges — particularly concerning defense ties with Morocco, Iran’s influence in Algeria and Turkiye’s growing presence in the Maghreb.

Despite its more distant relations with Algeria, Turkiye places importance on the energy dimension of their ties. Last November, the liquefied natural gas supply deal between Turkish energy company Botas and Algeria’s state-owned Sonatrach was extended for an additional three years, until 2027. In fact, there have been talks about increasing defense cooperation between Turkiye and Algeria in the past few years, though relations in this sector remain somewhat cautious.

Despite its more distant relations with Algeria, Turkiye places importance on the energy dimension of their ties

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Libya occupies a central role not only in Turkiye’s Maghreb policy but also in its Mediterranean strategy, serving as a gateway for projecting Turkish influence. In 2020, Turkiye signed a military cooperation agreement with Libya, which allows Turkiye to deploy troops and provide military training, as well as to establish military bases in the North African country.

Turkish military contractors have been involved in training and equipping Libyan forces and Turkiye has used its advanced Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkish firms are pursuing major construction projects. Moreover, a recent energy agreement aims to tap into Libya’s substantial oil reserves, estimated at 48 billion barrels. But in a significant shift from its traditional oil-based economy, Libya is also launching an ambitious renewable energy initiative with Turkish technology and expertise at its core.

In addition to Libya, Tunisia is often considered one of Turkiye’s closest allies in the Maghreb, marked by their cooperation in both the defense and economic sectors. Turkish construction company Biltek was last year awarded a contract to establish a regional maritime center of excellence in Bizerte, Tunisia. This contract reflects the growing defense ties between Turkiye and Tunisia, as well as the latter’s openness to collaborating with Turkiye on strategic projects.

The fragmented regional order and ongoing Ukraine crisis have made it increasingly difficult for European states to address the needs of the Maghreb countries. This situation has pushed these states closer to Turkiye, which is actively seeking new partners in Africa to fill the vacuum left by the declining Western involvement. In doing so, Ankara has compartmentalized its relations with each state to maintain a balanced approach across the region.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz