How Trump can repair US betrayal of Afghanistan

The single biggest foreign policy disaster of the Biden administration was the chaotic and deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, which fundamentally altered how the US was perceived globally.

For America’s adversaries, it signaled an opportunity to test the limits of what they could get away with. For friends and partners, it raised serious doubts about American resolve and commitment.

Ukraine is a prime example. There is little doubt that the Kremlin’s intended road to Kyiv passed through Kabul. Russia saw a weak and wounded president in the White House and decided to act on Ukraine just months after America’s humiliating exit from Afghanistan. Now, however, the Trump administration has an opportunity to correct course and reassert respect.

The first and most important realization it must embrace is that the Taliban are not, and never will be, friends of the US. While the Biden administration maintained de facto relations with the Taliban, and while Trump’s first-term Secretary of State Mike Pompeo negotiated directly with them, it is essential to learn from these failed engagements. The Taliban remain a radical group that have shown no intention of reforming. Since returning to power, they have methodically stripped away basic freedoms, particularly for women, silenced opposition voices, and harbored terrorist groups.

There are early indications that the Trump administration may adopt a different approach. Within days of taking office, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent a direct warning to the Taliban that bounties might be placed on their leaders if they did not release all American hostages. This sort of firm and decisive messaging was absent under Biden and should be a wake-up call to Kabul that the new administration means business.

The first and most important realization is that the Taliban are not, and never will be, friends of the US.

Luke Coffey

The Trump administration must also address Biden’s failure to bring to safety all Afghans who assisted US and coalition forces over the past two decades. Before the withdrawal, the Biden administration repeatedly promised that these deserving Afghans would be brought to the US as part of the Special Immigrant Visa program — but tens of thousands remain stranded in Afghanistan or third countries because of bureaucratic delays and congressional inaction.

While Trump is cracking down on illegal migrants, the situation of Afghan applicants is entirely separate. They risked their lives to support US military operations, and failing to fulfill America’s promise to them would damage US credibility and moral standing. Recognizing the distinction and acting accordingly would send a strong signal that America honors its commitments, even in difficult times. A renewed effort to expedite the processing of visa applications and the safe relocation of Afghan allies should be a priority.

The Trump administration should also engage with the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan and other legitimate groups opposed to Taliban rule. Led by Ahmad Massoud, it is the largest non-extremist armed Afghan resistance movement. Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Waltz, an Afghan war veteran, engaged with the front’s leadership as a congressman and will undoubtedly recognize their strategic importance in shaping US policy.

The front will hold a summit in Vienna this month of groups opposed to Taliban rule. The US should send an official observer. If Washington is willing to engage with the Taliban as the de facto rulers of Afghanistan, there should be no issue in engaging with legitimate opposition forces. Supporting the front does not mean military involvement, but rather diplomatic backing, economic support, and other forms of assistance that could bolster their position against the Taliban.

Finally, the Trump administration should significantly increase diplomatic, economic, and trade engagement with Central Asia. The previous administration largely ignored the region after withdrawing from Afghanistan, but the Taliban takeover has only heightened its strategic importance.

The administration has an opportunity to craft a coherent and effective policy that strengthens ties with regional partners.

Luke Coffey

A more proactive approach to Central Asian countries is long overdue. A strong diplomatic gesture would be for Trump to visit the region, which no sitting president has ever done. Furthermore, with a new Central Asia strategy to be developed this year, the administration has an opportunity to craft a coherent and effective policy that strengthens ties with regional partners. This would include expanding economic cooperation, investing in infrastructure projects, and increasing security cooperation to ensure that the region remains resilient against extremist threats.

In politics, second chances are rare. In geopolitics, they are almost unheard of. But Trump’s return to the White House offers a unique opportunity to correct America’s course in Afghanistan.

By engaging more effectively with regional partners, supporting anti-Taliban forces, fulfilling America’s promise to Afghan allies, and maintaining diplomatic and economic pressure on the Taliban, the administration can begin to restore credibility and respect in the region. Taking these steps would not only serve American strategic interests but would also demonstrate that the US remains a reliable partner.

While some in Trump’s inner circle may prefer to move on from Afghanistan, that would be an irresponsible policy decision. With Trump back in the White House, and with a national security team that understands Afghanistan’s broader geopolitical importance, there is a chance to pursue policies that benefit the US, the broader region, and the Afghan people.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey