Russian energy looms large in EU’s planning

Since the start of the Ukraine war, the EU has sharply increased its focus on energy security, reaching many new gas deals, particularly with the US and Middle Eastern countries. However, as EU leaders prepare for any potential deal between Moscow and Kyiv, whether that comes in 2025 or beyond, the thorny question of the future role of cheaper Russian gas in the European energy mix is arising once again.
New EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has pledged to end the bloc’s energy ties with Russia by 2027. But there is a debate underway in Brussels on whether Russian gas pipeline sales to Europe should be restarted as part of any Ukraine war settlement with Moscow. The proponents of such a move assert that it could help boost the continent’s economic competitiveness, as gas prices in Europe are often three to four times higher than in the US.
However, such discussions have already prompted fury from some of the staunchest opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin. These include the Baltic states, Poland and Slovenia.
For as long as Putin remains in power, Moscow will be seen by much of Europe as a pariah state. For sure, some EU countries, including Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria, may significantly increase their energy reliance on Moscow. However, it is likely that many current European leaders will resist.
Even if the Ukraine war ends in 2025, some EU sanctions against Russia will likely remain for as long as Putin is in power. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Western sanctions were already in place as a result of the country’s violations of international law, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
The backstory for this intense debate is the 27 EU members’ huge pivot away from Russian energy since 2022, even though liquefied natural gas imports from Russia to Europe remain stubbornly high. Within a year of Moscow’s invasion, the EU’s energy consumption changed so rapidly that Russia was no longer the bloc’s main gas supplier — a remarkable change.

Correspondingly, the EU member states have more aggressively taken on the challenge of diversifying to new energy sources. The RePowerEU strategy is being delivered — in part — by scaling up the use of clean energy and reducing overall energy consumption. This has helped the EU generate, at times, more electricity from wind and solar sources than from gas.

There is a debate underway on whether Russian gas sales to Europe should be restarted as part of any Ukraine war settlement.

Andrew Hammond

However, while the EU is eager to expand its clean energy production, the current volumes fall far short of meeting the continent’s needs entirely.
To reduce its reliance on Russian energy, the EU has worked hard to secure many new deals since February 2022. The European Council on Foreign Relations Energy Deals Tracker shows that the bloc’s members have mostly focused on securing new supplies of gas as a transitional energy source amid the long-term movement toward clean energy. About 45 percent of the approximately 180 deals that the EU and its member states have struck since 2022 concern gas, including LNG.
The tracker also shows that the EU country that has struck the most deals is Germany on 43, which is more than double the tallies of Italy (21) and Hungary (20). This is unsurprising, given that Germany is the bloc’s largest economy and was the biggest importer of Russian gas before the Ukraine war. Other countries in double digits in terms of the number of new energy deals include France, Bulgaria and Greece, each of which are on 10.
The leading counterparties are the US (35) and the UAE (24). The fact that the US tops this list is reflected in the significantly increased share of the EU’s LNG the country now provides. This comes in the context of new US President Donald Trump urging Europe to buy even more US gas to ward off any potential new tariffs under his administration.
In this context, it is questionable if it would make sense for Trump to push hard for Russian gas imports in any Moscow-Kyiv peace deal, as it would go against America’s LNG export interests. With the US having taken over as Europe’s top LNG supplier, letting more Russian gas back in would hurt its market share and weaken its influence.
One other factor to note in this key policy debate is that Europe’s intensive energy diplomacy of recent years has gone a long way toward helping deliver energy security for the bloc. However, it is complicating the EU’s energy transition pathway, which is key given the bloc’s ambition to become the first net-zero region by 2050. In part, this is because the new gas infrastructure that has been invested in will require a medium-to-long-term horizon to secure value for money. Correspondingly, EU nations will need to do much more to invest in clean energy infrastructure if they are to fully deliver on sustainably decarbonizing their economies in the crucial years to come.

• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.