Will Europe look to China to replace the US?

The question of who will lead in Europe was asked openly at last weekend’s Munich Security Conference in light of the rising tensions between the US and its transatlantic allies. Some called on Germany to lead, while others regretted that the UK had left the EU. But the bigger question on everybody’s mind was: Will China replace the US as Europe’s main partner and world leader?

As transatlantic relations enter a new stage, with Europe questioning whether the historic partnership is still on the same page and whether Europe and the US still share the same values, especially those related to the global order, China looks to be positioning itself as not only the beneficiary but also the better and more stable partner, or “the anti-Trump.”

As the US speaks of America First and withdraws from international institutions, China is presenting itself as the guardian of the international order — but not the unipolar world of yesterday, rather the new multipolar world that Beijing says must be fair and devoid of rivalry.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference that “a multipolar world is not only a historical inevitability, it is also becoming a reality.”

As the US speaks of America First, China is presenting itself as the guardian of the international order

Dr. Amal Mudallali

The new American administration prides itself on the “disruption” it is causing to the international system, to fix what it says is a system that has gone astray. China, on the other hand, is presenting itself as a power that is working for an “equal and orderly multipolar world” and “a factor of certainty in this multipolar system,” as Wang said.

China is presenting itself as the rational actor in a chaotic world, while “some countries believe that might makes right and have opened the Pandora’s box marked the law of the jungle.”

But this is not mere political talk, the Chinese claim. Wang pointed out that Beijing “contributed nearly 30 percent of the world’s economic growth” and “served as an important engine for global economic growth.”

While US Vice President J.D. Vance lectured and chided the Europeans on their supposed abandoning of democratic values, he also intervened in their domestic affairs, especially those of Germany. He met the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany party but not Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Chinese were very direct in offering themselves as an alternative, with their officials expressing China’s willingness to “deepen strategic communication and mutually beneficial cooperation” with Europe.

Wang was very specific, saying China is “willing to synergize high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with the European Union’s Global Gateway Strategy so as to empower each other and empower the entire world.” He added that China and Europe are partners, not rivals.

And to contrast China’s approach to that of the US regarding its participation in the negotiations over Ukraine, the Chinese foreign minister said Beijing backs Europe to play a significant role in the peace process.

But can China really replace the US for Europe, which has enjoyed more than three-quarters of a century of close political, security, economic and strategic ties with Washington?

As the US is going its own way on ending the war in Ukraine and as the threat of a trade war becomes serious, Europe is struggling to find a way to preserve its historic and indispensable relationship with the US, while at the same time asserting itself as an equal partner to Washington that cannot be bullied.

China’s close relationship with Russia is the main obstacle to a closer and deeper relationship with Beijing. The Europeans believe that China’s critical support of Russia is giving it a lifeline, as it is buying its energy, which helps Moscow continue its war in Ukraine. The chair of the Munich Security Conference told Wang, “today, Russia has become … China’s gas station,” and asked him about the possibility of China cutting off the gas supply from Russia to pressure it to end the war. Wang repeated China’s position that sanctions cannot solve the issue and that the negotiating table is the place to end any conflict. But this is not the answer that Europe needs if it is going to change strategic partners.

Economically, Europe and the US have enjoyed strong economic cooperation in all fields, especially in trade. While there are many voices in Europe calling on it to look after its own interests and allow economic ties with China a larger role in its trade relations, despite caution over technology transfer, the figures and facts paint a different picture.

China’s close relationship with Russia is the main obstacle to a closer and deeper relationship with Beijing

Dr. Amal Mudallali

While the EU describes its approach to China as “multifaceted,” it also describes Beijing as simultaneously “a partner for cooperation, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival.” The US enjoys a different relationship. The EU and the US have “the world’s largest bilateral trade and investment relationship and enjoy the most integrated economic relationship in the world,” according to Brussels.

“EU-US trade in goods and services reached an impressive €1.6 trillion in 2023,” the official EU policy and trade site notes. Trade in goods alone was worth $975.9 billion in 2024. China is the EU’s second-largest trading partner for goods after the US, worth €739 billion ($772 billion) in 2023, a decline of 14 percent from 2022. There is a sustained trade imbalance in favor of China.

The EU-China trade and economic relationship is modest in comparison to the defense, security and strategic relationship enshrined in NATO and other security organizations that make the Europe-US relationship the most enduring and robust in the post-Second World War order.

However, Europe has depended on the US for its defense for too long and, as Vance told the Europeans last week, today there is a “new sheriff in town” who wants different rules so has decided to stop playing by the old rules. It seems Vance’s message has been received by Europe loud and clear. The result is multiple voices around the continent talking about scaling up its defense, making new defense commitments and pledging higher defense budget promises.

This is hardly a continent that is replacing its old partner — it is one that is being forced to shape up and pay up. China can be “strong and untiring,” as in the Chinese proverb Wang cited in Munich, but it will find out that there is more that ties the US and Europe than the sum of their transatlantic alliance and the latter’s shortcomings in defense.

• Dr. Amal Mudallali is an international affairs adviser for Think and a former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.