US trip offers Starmer chance to show leadership

Ever since 2014, the UK has been at the forefront of trying to push back Russia’s encroachment into Ukraine, including opposing the full-scale invasion of 2022. Britain worked hard to ensure that the US and Europe acted collectively to repel the Russian forces and sanction Moscow.

As peace talks between the US and Russia last week kicked off in Riyadh, how can London support this process and can it adapt to what President Donald Trump has initiated?

This will be in sharp focus as Prime Minister Keir Starmer heads to Washington for his turn in the Trump White House this Thursday.

For Starmer, this is unlikely to be a comfortable meeting. Hitherto, he has steadfastly resisted the temptation to criticize Trump directly, such as on the Middle East. But Britain sees Russia as a direct national security issue. Starmer does not have the option to gloss over core differences.

Starmer has taken issue with Trump’s policy positions. He pushed back at the notion that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a dictator, as Trump had suggested, or that Ukraine was the aggressor. The British defense secretary also challenged Trump’s line that Ukraine had started the war. “Three years ago, one country illegally invaded another and, since then, the Ukrainians have been fighting for their freedom,” said John Healey. Trump has hit out at Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, saying: “They didn’t do anything either (to end the war). The war’s going on, no meetings with Russia, no nothing.”

What can the UK do? Starmer still aims to be a bridge between Europe and the Trump administration. Many query whether he can effectively carry out this role. He is hardly from the same brand of politics as the US president and he still has some way to go to impress his European colleagues. One advantage he has is that Trump will know Starmer will be around for at least another four years, unlike Macron. Starmer will want to exit the Oval Office with this bridging role secured.

But his American counterpart does not appear to be in the mood for building bridges. He wants to shake things up. One month into his second tenure, he is doing just that. Starmer will have to dodge some of the hand grenades that may be launched at him. He should avoid reacting to Trump’s wilder commentary and focus on being clear in his own messaging, not least emphasizing the long-term benefits of strategic alliances and why they matter.

Starmer is not alone. Most European states have been unnerved by the dramatic and swift change in US policy. Even though Trump’s team signaled this, the speed at which the US has engaged in direct talks with Russia, with Ukraine sidelined, has caught many by surprise.

Starmer’s usefulness to Trump depends on his influence in Europe. Can Starmer persuade European states to increase their defense spending, as Trump demands? Trump despises European freeloading. He has a point. Europe should take ownership of its defense. Starmer has pledged to increase UK defense spending to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product from about 2.3 percent now. Trump will ask when. A bolder Starmer move was pledging UK troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine, provided there was a US backstop role.

A far bigger challenge is that Trump is not wedded to a transatlantic alliance. He sees little benefit to the US. He is serving notice: Sort out your act, Europe. And in ways that he approves of. European powers can no longer bet on the US security umbrella, its full participation in NATO or even that this military alliance will survive. As Macron observed last week: “Do not think that the unthinkable cannot happen, including the worst.”

A far bigger challenge is that Trump is not wedded to a transatlantic alliance. He sees little benefit to the US.

Chris Doyle

Trump’s approach veers toward short-termism above long-term strategic value. He may be aggressive, at times outlandish, but Trump’s antics may be a medicine that Europe needs.

In years gone by, Europe might have just ignored this and waited for the end of the Trump presidency. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its interference in European elections and its ambitions in other states such as Georgia and Moldova mean it is imperative that the defense and security picture now changes.

Europe and especially Ukraine need a full role in these talks with Russia. Not every concession or compromise equals appeasement. European powers should build a full-fledged strategy that includes engaging Russia from a position of united strength.

The UK, as a key military power in Europe and a rock-solid supporter of Ukrainian liberation, can take the lead. This offers a chance for Starmer to showcase leadership skills on the international stage: a mix of toughness, creativity and long-term strategic thinking is required.

A forever war is in nobody’s interests, but a forever peace requires the serious fundamentals to be taken care of.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech