Saudi support vital if Lebanon is to rise again

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is due to visit Saudi Arabia on Monday. As did Ahmad Al-Sharaa, the new president of Syria, Aoun is making the Kingdom his first foreign destination to send a message and make a show of commitment: Lebanon is back in the Arab fold.

Just as Syria was under Iran’s influence during Bashar Assad’s rule, Lebanon experienced the same through Hezbollah. Now, both countries are back to their natural environment.

The Lebanese have high expectations from Saudi Arabia. After the civil war, Lebanon was able to rise due to the Kingdom’s help. Riyadh offered political, diplomatic and financial assistance to the war-torn country. However, this role slowly started to decrease following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, with the role of Iran starting to increase. Hezbollah’s grip on power was a gateway for Iranian influence. This led one Iranian official to say that Beirut was one of four Arab capitals controlled by Tehran.

However, this Iranian influence did not bring with it any stability or growth. When Lebanon was under Iranian control, there was no effort put into state-building and no room for economic prosperity. Iran spread its influence through chaos rather than stability. A strong state would have been a deterrent to its influence. Hence, state institutions were weakened, while the clientelist network of politicians was strengthened. Lebanon became a rogue state where the black economy was the main source of funds in the country. It became a center for money laundering and drug production and trafficking.

This is supposed to change as Iran’s influence dwindles. In the ministerial declaration that constitutes the government’s work plan for the coming period, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated that Lebanon must “neutralize” its involvement in any “axis conflicts.” He was referring to the Iranian axis. Also, when an Iranian delegation visited Lebanon to attend Sunday’s funeral of Hasan Nasrallah, it met with the president. Aoun told them that Lebanon cannot be a battleground for other people’s wars. Lebanon is clearly detaching itself from the Iranian axis. The country is returning to the Arab fold. However, what does that mean?

Lebanon is clearly detaching itself from the Iranian axis. The country is returning to the Arab fold

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The president and the prime minister have both made promises — to the Lebanese people, to Arab states and to the international community. They promised the Lebanese reforms and a prosperous economy. They also promised to disarm all militias. This means they will disarm Hezbollah. While they promised the disarmament of the militias, they also vowed to liberate the country from the Israeli occupation. They also assured the Lebanese that the reconstruction of the south would take place.

The president’s visit to Saudi Arabia comes in the wake of the ministerial declaration and parliament’s confirmation of Salam’s Cabinet. Aoun should head to Riyadh with a working plan. He should also have specific demands. Neither Aoun nor Salam will be able to execute what they stated in their addresses unless Lebanon gets support from outside, particularly Saudi Arabia.

Lebanon cannot get Israel to withdraw on its own. The most it can do is to file a complaint with the UN Security Council. However, this is unlikely to create any pressure on Israel or drive it to leave the country. The Lebanese army is no match for the Israeli army. Also, Lebanon has no real leverage on the US or Europe. The leverage that Lebanon had before was related to the fact it hosted 1.5 million Syrian refugees and Europe did not want them to cross the Mediterranean and reach its shores. Now, because the war has ended, the Syrian refugees can go back to Syria.

The Trump administration will not pressure Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanon. Lebanon relies on pressure from friendly states that want the country to be stable. Hence, the crucial role of Saudi Arabia, given its weight on the global stage. This would not be the first time that Saudi Arabia had saved Lebanon from Israeli claws. In 1982, the Kingdom was key in brokering a ceasefire and pushing Israel to withdraw from Beirut. Lebanon relies on Saudi diplomatic and political support. And a full Israeli withdrawal is essential if the country is to be stable.

However, Saudi Arabia no longer offers a blank check. Any aid will be conditional on a set of structural reforms

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

In order to have stability, Lebanon also needs security guarantees. Israel should not be able to invade Lebanese airspace as it pleases and hit targets wherever it wants. Sustained stability is a prerequisite for reconstruction. While in Riyadh, the Lebanese president will definitely ask for funds for reconstruction. The reconstruction of the south is essential for the state to co-opt the Shiite community and preserve civil peace.

However, Saudi Arabia no longer offers a blank check. Even if Lebanon is no longer under Iranian tutelage, the Saudi leadership is not ready to offer cash that will go down the drain of corruption. Any aid will be conditional on a set of structural reforms. This not only means confronting Hezbollah but also the entire political class that has governed the country for the last 30 years. Here, the current government will have to take some bold steps that could involve risks.

Despite the apparent endorsement of the new government by the political establishment, in view of the vote of confidence of the Cabinet, a clash could occur if the political class’s privileges are targeted. However, this clash might be the surgical intervention needed to save the failing state. Again, the Aoun-Salam leadership cannot take such a bold step unless it has the endorsement of a strong player. Again, Lebanon has no one to turn to but Saudi Arabia. Lebanon will present many requests to Saudi Arabia, but in order to get any of them the new leadership has to prove it can deliver.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.