Will Europe swap the US for China?

At a time when uncertainty is growing around the world and when many established foreign policies are being revised, potentially upending the world order, China could emerge from the shadows and present itself as a central force in preserving the status quo. Many would applaud Beijing if it were to step up and show a readiness to fill the strategic vacuum and lead, especially in the Global south, vis-a-vis a retrenching, inward-looking US, and maybe in Europe too.

China’s expression of a “resolute” intention not only to push back against the US’ unjustifiable tariffs, but also taking a swipe against the Trump administration’s policies of withdrawing from international institutions and bodies, must be a very welcome move. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s statement last week that major powers “should not bully the weak” could go a long way and earn China more dividends, not only in the Global South but also across a European continent that is feeling betrayed by its closest ally.

This came as China Premier Li Qiang outlined China’s ambitions for growth at the opening of the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress.

But where Wang went further was with his overtures to Europe and by taking a swipe at the White House’s worldview. His statement that Europe can be a trustworthy partner — even amid differences with the continent due to Beijing’s tacit support of Russia’s Ukraine invasion and Europe’s concerns over its poor human rights record — can be a foundation to build on.

Wang’s statement evoked the views recently expressed in pro-Ukraine EU nations, which are feeling increasingly bullied by the US

Mohamed Chebaro

Maybe it would not be naive to entertain the thought that, as a result of the current erratic and uncertain US policies, such statements could create an opportunity for an EU-China reset and increased cooperation. This would give Brussels an opportunity to boost its economic growth potential and also its security, but only if the Europeans can move past the ideological differences that have often muffled the conversations with Beijing.

This Chinese stance ought to have hit a nerve among traditional American allies in the West. Wang’s statement evoked the views recently expressed in pro-Ukraine EU nations, which are feeling increasingly bullied by the US.

Wang’s words, while they still need to be coupled with action from Beijing, are encouraging as they could usher in new avenues of discussion between China and Europe, particularly if Beijing is sincere in trying to present itself as a reliable and mature global power. Amid the geopolitical turmoil caused by the US’ withdrawal from international institutions, this surely will appeal to Europe.

European countries should double down and urge Beijing to take a more active role in using its economic leverage and political influence over Russia to stop the war in Ukraine, even if it did not do so in the past. This should be in line with Wang’s claim that China wants to achieve a “fair, lasting and binding peace agreement” that is acceptable to all parties.

This could give credence to the belief that Beijing wishes to exploit the growing transatlantic rift to bolster its ties with European countries. EU-US ties have been particularly strained by the US’ unilaterally imposed roadmap to peace in Ukraine and the White House’s trade tariffs.

The despair that is being felt from Kyiv to London is leading some to question all the values that have underpinned the world order that was, until recently, driven by the US itself.

European leaders are under no illusion that the world is changing under the new Trump administration — and faster than first thought

Mohamed Chebaro

Such despair is bringing back into focus human history as a whole, which has often oscillated between Thomas Hobbes’ imagined state of nature in calamitous times — when people living without government were involved in a war of all against all and life was “nasty, brutish and short” — and that of a life lived in more peaceful times, such as when John Locke wrote about the state of nature involving a social contract between rulers and the ruled that permits the pursuit of life, liberty and property. Locke’s ideas became enshrined in US political culture and the so-called American dream and they are still embraced in many parts of the world today.

That Lockean tradition guided the formation of world governance and institutions like the UN, followed by the Bretton Woods principles, which cemented the post-Second World War quasi-peace for Europe, America and the rest of the world. However, we are now seeing the unravelling of this system in front of our eyes in a matter of weeks, as the White House is trying to circumvent it. Wang’s words appeal to those same common human values, even if China’s ideological system and its actions do not always reflect them.

European leaders are under no illusion that the world is changing under the new Trump administration — and faster than first thought. Despite initial positive assessments of the limits of Trump’s transactionalism — that maybe it will not go as far as undoing the historic US-Europe alignment — recent weeks have left Europe exposed to a US policy of divide, rule and grab.

So, will Europe dare to dream of an enhanced trade and development rapprochement with China that could usher in a new era of cooperation to counterbalance the US’ withering interest?

I believe Europe should shift its emphasis and show pragmatism, rather than surrender and accept the end of a values-led world.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.