Europe sets sights on Global South to build influence

One of the most striking features of Donald Trump’s second presidency is how its unilateralism is eroding US soft power, including in the so-called Global South. This is creating a window of opportunity for other powers, including Europe, to fill the political and economic vacuum left in its wake, in areas such as Africa, the Middle East, South America, and the Asia Pacific.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen turned her attention this week to Africa, building on her recent trips to South America and India, and the EU’s interest in other key emerging markets, including the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Specifically, she co-hosted an EU-South Africa summit in Cape Town on Thursday with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is the chair of the G20 this year.
The EU is South Africa’s leading source of foreign direct investment, accounting for 53.7 percent of the total in 2022. Meanwhile, South Africa continues to be the EU’s largest trading partner in Sub-Saharan Africa, with €49 billion ($53.3 billion) worth of trade in goods in 2023.
The EU is also keenly aware that South Africa is the gateway to a much wider region on the emerging-markets-rich continent. In June 2016, the EU and South Africa, along with Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and Eswatini, signed the Southern African Development Community Economic Partnership Agreement. Through this, the EU either completely or partially eliminated customs duties on almost all imports from southern Africa. The agreement helps promote both bilateral and regional trade, opening up new opportunities to help achieve the goals of the EU-South Africa strategic partnership.
One of Africa’s key attractions, from the EU perspective, is its huge stock of resource wealth, as Europe seeks to diversify its global supply chains following its realization it was over-dependent on Russian energy before the war in Ukraine. Sub-Saharan Africa has an estimated 30 percent of global reserves of critical raw materials.
The emerging-markets-rich continent has long been a super priority for the EU; von der Leyen’s predecessor as commission president, Jean Claude Juncker, pushed for a “pivot to Africa,” including the creation of a new Africa-Europe Alliance. Since the war in Ukraine began, this EU focus on Africa has intensified, with von der Leyen promoting the relationship as a key counterweight to other prominent world powers, including Russia.
Brussels wants to encourage Africa as a champion of a rules-based, multilateral approach to world order. In the words of former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, Europe seeks “a new, integrated strategy for and with Africa,” based on an “equal partnership” rather than the “power politics” offered by some others, including Russia.

The EU is seeking to bolster economic and political relationships with key markets, including Africa and the Middle East.

Andrew Hammond

The EU’s diplomatic serenading of South Africa contrasts sharply with that of the Trump team since it took office in January. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent failed to attend meetings of G20 foreign and finance ministers last month amid Trump administration’s condemnation of the South African government.
One focal point of the Trump team’s attacks has been the 2024 South Africa Expropriation Act, which aims to resolve ownership-inequality issues created by the pre-1994 Apartheid system of white-minority rule. The controversial law has drawn criticism for potentially disregarding private property rights, particularly those of the white minority, as it could permit the state seizure of land without compensation. No land has been expropriated so far but Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 7 cutting aid to South Africa.
This reduction came amid wider USAID funding disruptions, as the Trump team has terminated the vast majority of the agency’s programs. This represents a body blow to hopes of the international community meeting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for financial loans and aid to Africa.
The US diplomatic rebuff of South Africa worries Europe, which fears foes, including Russia, will step into the economic and political vacuum left in its wake. This comes in a context of an increasing non-alignment among African nations, and developing countries across the wider world, on international issues such as the war in Ukraine.
With its wooing of world powers, Europe seeks to address the fact that few so-called “non-aligned” states imposed sanctions on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. For many of these countries, diplomatic neutrality has significant appeal, not least because so many of them depend heavily on trade, aid, investment and/or weapons from both China and Russia, as well as the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been hosting Russia-Africa summits since 2019 in an attempt to restore Moscow’s influence in the region, which had faded after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He is keen to entrench a Russian economic and political foothold in the continent, as bilateral trade with Africa has risen significantly.
However, the most extensive diplomatic serenading of Africa has come from Russia’s ally, China, which aims to better connect its huge Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure project with the continent’s development. Trade between China and Africa has risen significantly, and more than 50 African countries are now participating in the Belt and Road Initiative.
Thursday’s big EU-South Africa event, then, was only the latest manifestation of Europe’s efforts to double down on Global South powers during von der Leyen’s second term. Conscious of the unpredictability of the Trump team, and attempts by foes such as Russia to fill the power vacuum, the EU and other powers are seeking to bolster their economic and political relationships with key markets, including Africa, the Middle East, South America, and the Asia Pacific.

• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.