Saudi Arabia’s pragmatic approach to US transactionalism

In the understated private meeting rooms of Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton, away from the ornate carpeting and intricate decoration of the hotel’s public spaces, an extraordinary diplomatic dance took place this week. Russian officials met with their American counterparts, following discussions between American and Ukrainian delegations.

These talks, focused on a potential limited ceasefire in Ukraine and shipping safety in the Black Sea, did not take place in Geneva or Vienna, but in Saudi Arabia. This is not diplomacy as usual; it is the culmination of a carefully orchestrated Saudi strategy to transform the Kingdom from regional player to global diplomatic powerhouse.

To understand how, look at Steve Witkoff’s remarkably unvarnished interview with Tucker Carlson, which offered something rarely seen in diplomatic circles: brutal honesty. “Trump sets the table for all of us,” Witkoff declared with directness. The subtext could not be clearer — America’s power is being redeployed with a vengeance and every nation, including Saudi Arabia, must recalibrate accordingly.

Gone are the human rights lectures tucked discreetly into diplomatic portfolios. In their place: unvarnished transactionalism focused on mutual interests, economic integration and hard security. For states accustomed to Washington’s often tortuous rhetorical gymnastics, this represents a refreshingly straightforward proposition: define objectives clearly, negotiate from strength, but — crucially — recognize that sustainable deals require mutual benefit.

What previous administrations failed to grasp, this one appears to acknowledge, albeit only partially

Adrian Monck

What previous administrations failed to grasp, this one appears to acknowledge, albeit only partially: Saudi Arabia’s position on normalization with Israel is nonnegotiable without addressing Palestinian rights. “Without question, (Gaza peace) is a condition precedent to Saudi normalizing,” Witkoff conceded, but this dramatically understates the Kingdom’s actual position.

Saudi Arabia has made it abundantly clear that a comprehensive two-state solution — not merely a temporary ceasefire in Gaza — remains the absolute prerequisite for normalization. This represents the fundamental misalignment in Witkoff’s vision.

His Gaza-centric peace formulation (“Imagine if Lebanon normalizes, Syria normalizes, and the Saudis sign a normalization treaty with Israel because there’s peace in Gaza”) fails to acknowledge the deeper structural changes required for genuine regional transformation.

For any normalization process to succeed, both American and Israeli leaders must shoulder their responsibility by formally accepting and implementing a viable two-state solution. More crucially, Washington must provide substantive guarantees that Israel will abide by such arrangements — not just in principle, but in practice.

Without this foundational commitment backed by meaningful enforcement mechanisms, Saudi Arabia’s participation remains a diplomatic fantasy rather than an achievable outcome.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Witkoff’s revelations was his assessment of the Gulf’s economic potential: “The Gulf coast could be one of the most undervalued opportunities if we get peace and stability throughout the region … It could be much bigger than Europe.”

This is not mere real estate rhetoric. As Saudi Arabia drives forward with its Vision 2030, regional integration offers exponential benefits beyond what any single nation can achieve alone. Witkoff specifically highlighted how Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are already positioning themselves at the forefront of technology sectors, including artificial intelligence and blockchain.

What is missing is not talent or capital — it is regional stability founded on justice. Here lies the prize worth pursuing, but not at any cost.

One particularly insightful observation? The economic rationale behind security treaties: “Everybody thinks the peace treaty is about physical defense. What it’s really about is the United States providing a security wrapper so that they’re all financeable today.”

This perspective should resonate with Saudi financial strategists. Without robust security frameworks built on sustainable political solutions, financial institutions must “underwrite war risk” — making capital more expensive and constraining economic development.

For the Kingdom, whose Vision 2030 looks to engage global investors, this offers a compelling financial argument for genuine, justice-based regional security arrangements that transcend traditional defense concerns. When capital becomes cheaper and more accessible, transformation accelerates — but this cannot come at the expense of Palestinian rights.

“In that region, you have young leadership,” Witkoff observed. “People who don’t have the old sensibilities, people who want to do business.”

This generational shift creates a unique historical moment. The new group of leaders understands that economic prosperity ultimately delivers more benefits than ideological entrenchment — yet they remain firmly committed to core principles of regional justice.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Witkoff’s revelations was his assessment of the Gulf’s economic potential

Adrian Monck

What should Saudi policymakers make of all this? Three considerations stand out.

First, there appears to be partial understanding in Washington that peace is a prerequisite for Saudi normalization with Israel. However, Witkoff’s Gaza-focused framing suggests a fundamental misreading of Saudi requirements. The Kingdom demands a comprehensive two-state solution, not merely a Gaza ceasefire.

Second, the economic benefits of regional stability extend far beyond direct investment from the US. The “security wrapper” that enables lower-cost financing could accelerate Vision 2030 initiatives across sectors — but this security must be founded on justice, not merely power.

Third, while the administration’s transactional approach offers potential benefits, it must be accompanied by meaningful American pressure on Israel to accept and implement a viable two-state solution. Without this, no amount of economic incentives will suffice.

The Kingdom’s diplomatic evolution was on full display this week. That Saudi Arabia now serves as mediator in a conflict thousands of kilometers from its borders speaks volumes about its growing global influence.

For Saudi Arabia, positioned at the geographical and strategic center of potential regional transformation, the opportunity is clear: engage pragmatically with this outcome-oriented approach while maintaining firm, nonnegotiable advocacy for Palestinian rights through a viable two-state solution.

The prize — a Middle East transformed from conflict zone to innovation hub — remains tantalizingly possible. As Witkoff put it: “Can you imagine all these countries working collaboratively together and creating that type of market? It could be much bigger than Europe.”

That vision aligns remarkably well with Saudi Arabia’s own ambitions — but only if built on foundations of justice and sustainability. The Saudi position remains clear and consistent: normalization requires a comprehensive two-state solution, with meaningful American guarantees that Israel will comply. Without this, no amount of economic incentivization will suffice.

• Adrian Monck is a senior adviser at the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence and authors the geopolitics newsletter, “Seven Things.”