Turkiye aims to align with Damascus and Baghdad

US President John F. Kennedy once said of American-Canadian relations: “Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies. What unites us is far greater than what divides us.” This also describes the relationship Turkiye is cultivating with Syria and Iraq: they are becoming economic partners, and allies in the face of shared threats.

With the collapse of the Assad regime, Ankara has intensified its efforts to build bridges between Damascus and Baghdad. Behind the scenes, Turkiye has been preparing for an important meeting between Syria’s new leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa and Iraqi officials, possibly at the Antalya diplomacy forum this weekend. However, it is not clear whether Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani will meet Al-Sharaa.

While Iraq initially took a cautious approach to Syria’s new leadership, recent developments indicate a shift. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani visited Baghdad last month, which helped in a change of heart in Iraq toward Damascus. In Ankara, there is an understanding that constructive relations between Baghdad and Damascus not only serve its interests — particularly counterterrorism efforts and economic cooperation — but also align with the broader regional interest. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan underscored this when he said: “No power can overcome Turkiye, Syria, and Iraq when we unite.”

Since last year, there has been remarkable progress in Ankara’s relations with Baghdad. During President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to Iraq, his first since 2011, 27 agreements were signed. Since then, dozens of meetings have taken place on water, energy, security, and trade.

From Ankara’s perspective, a cooperative relationship between Syria and Iraq is vital — not only for Turkish national security and economic interests but also for the broader region’s stability

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Turkiye’s approach to Iraq rests on five strategic pillars: transforming Iraq into a regional cooperation platform, advancing the Development Road Project to boost economic connectivity, ensuring unwavering cooperation against terrorism, counterbalancing Iran’s political influence in Iraq, and fostering a diplomatic bridge between Iraq and Syria’s new leadership. This strategy also appears to align with Washington’s objectives in the region. While Turkish-American relations have been strained in Syria, their interests in Iraq seem to converge. Washington seems keen to bring Iraq closer to the Gulf states and Turkiye, in a bid to contain Iran’s influence.

At the heart of the Turkish-Iraqi interests lies the Development Road Project — an ambitious regional infrastructure initiative designed to enhance economic integration. Ankara expects to finalize an agreement with Iraq on the project soon. With funding expected from Gulf partners such as Qatar and the UAE, Turkish officials anticipate that the first parts of the project could become operational by 2027. When asked about Syria’s possible inclusion in the project, Fidan responded: “I think it is possible. It would be good. I think Syria can be a part of this project with certain formulas.”

There was a flurry of diplomatic activity last week between Ankara and Baghdad. An agreement was signed between the Iraq Development Fund and the Turkiye Wealth Fund on a strategic collaboration alliance. Iraqi officials noted that, for the first time, Iraq and Turkiye are going beyond mere trade to embark on long-term strategic initiatives. On the Turkish side, there is optimism about progress on two major projects — one involving Iraq and the other connecting Turkiye to Syria.

Beyond the economic stakes, a significant shift in Turkiye’s Iraq policy took place at the security level. One of Turkiye’s long-standing goals has been to secure firm support from Baghdad in its fight against the Kurdish separatist PKK, which is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkiye, the US, and the EU. That goal was finally realized last year when Iraq banned the PKK. In return, Turkiye signed an agreement with Iraq to improve water management in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, committing to “fairly and equally” allocate shared water resources between two neighbors. Turkiye and Iraq also signed an agreement on military and counterterrorism cooperation, focusing on eliminating the PKK threat. If all these stars align, Turkiye is also hoping to secure Iraq’s support for a long-term Turkish military presence in northern Iraq to prevent PKK infiltration across the border.

The Iraqi army also plans new bases near the Turkish border to enhance security, highlighting the close collaboration with the Kurdish Regional Government’s peshmerga forces. The mountainous landscape has long posed a challenge to securing the border, making regional cooperation essential. In the broader perspective, Ankara is working to forge a regional security alliance that includes Jordan and Lebanon, along with Syria and Iraq, aimed at countering the Daesh threat, particularly along the Syrian-Iraqi border.

For Iraq, pitching itself as a regional actor depends on getting its domestic political landscape in order. Turkish-Iranian rivalry plays a significant role in shaping Iraq’s political landscape, which influences Turkish calculations. From Ankara’s perspective, a cooperative relationship between Syria and Iraq is vital — not only for Turkish national security and economic interests but also for the broader region’s stability.

Turkiye’s ability to bring Iraq and Syria together, if it succeeds in doing so, would certainly mark a fundamental shift in the three-way relationship.

*Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz