Reform UK’s rise a symptom of populism’s growing strength

Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK party this week topped a YouGov voting intention poll for the first time, overtaking the ruling Labour Party. But what is Reform UK? Who is Farage? And what role will Reform play in the future of UK politics?
Farage is not a newcomer to British politics or unknown to international observers. He was one of the leading Brexit campaigners in 2016 and supports reduced immigration and lower taxes. In 2019, the Brexit Party — Reform’s predecessor — was the big winner in the European Parliament elections, receiving 31.6 percent of the vote. This compares with the Liberal Democrats on 20.3 percent, Labour on 14.1 percent and the Conservatives on 9.1 percent.
Reform summarizes the key propositions and ideas it stands for on its website. It states: “Only Reform will stand up for British identity and values. We will freeze immigration and stop the boats. Restore law and order. Repair our broken public services. Cut taxes to make work pay. End government waste. Slash energy bills. Unlock real economic growth.” Similar to the famous Brexit slogan “Take back control,” the manifesto also claims that “Only Reform will take back control over our borders, our money and our laws.”
The roots of the party and its main propositions lie in the Brexit campaign and, in general, remain relevant to British society, since the same perceived problems still exist.
However, while once Farage was a key driver in Britain’s divorce from the EU, today he seeks to challenge the existing tradition of how British politics operates. Sky News suggested that this week’s poll suggests a “new era” of three-party politics in the country.
According to the poll, if a general election were held tomorrow, 25 percent of Britons would vote for Reform. Meanwhile, only 21 percent would give their vote to the Conservative Party, which governed the UK for 14 years until Labour came to power last July. Labour was supported by 24 percent in the recent poll. The result has been interpreted as an expression of public discontent in Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is less than seven months into his term. There has been fallout from a tax-raising budget, in addition to a slow economy. Farage responded to this result, stating on X that: “Britain wants Reform.”
What Farage means is the following: the introduction of tougher immigration controls and for the country’s net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target of 2050 to be scrapped. According to The Independent: “Strong anti-immigration views were dominant among those who voted Reform in the 2024 general election, but those who have begun to support the party since then have far more diverse views.”
This indicates that a growing group of people who would normally consider themselves positively disposed toward immigration and multiculturalism are, despite Reform’s headline stance against them, turning toward the party in response to the perceived failure and disconnection of the traditional main parties (and do not see the more centrist Liberal Democrats as a viable alternative). They see that it is time for a change.
This should not be read as a done deal, however. As most media experts warn, polls less than 12 months into a five-year parliament are rarely a precise predictor of how people will vote at the next general election. It is nonetheless an alarming sign for both the governing Labour Party and the Conservatives ahead of the local elections in May. 

A growing group of people are turning toward Reform in response to the perceived failure of the traditional main parties.

Dr. Diana Galeeva

The poll might suggest that people really expect some changes in the direction of British policy. Ultimately, Farage is a skilled disruptor who is able to adapt. Just as he ignited the Brexit campaign that was widely expected to fail, he has found ways and means to challenge the status quo in domestic politics and leverage media coverage and other networks to engage voters who might otherwise pay little attention to politics. The possibility of a three-way political system in the UK seems closely bound with him personally.
On a broader scale, the rise of Farage and Reform also has implications for Western society. A year after the Brexit vote, while observing a clear rise of populists across Europe, I wrote an article titled “How to overcome populism?” I explained the popularity of Farage and Marine Le Pen, who had just led a close and credible campaign for the French presidency, arguing that the rise of populism was connected to their key ideas, in addition to charismatic leadership.
I also explained that the nature of populism is not a new phenomenon, but rather it has long roots — to name just a few examples, agrarian radicalism, Narodnichestvo, Peronism and the ideas of social credit. The ideas and images of populists are still alive and supported by many people. Since the rise of populists such as Donald Trump, Le Pen and Nigel Farage, scholars have suggested differentiations between “populism” and “new populism.” We may be witnessing the transformation to a new era, not simply in UK politics, but in the whole of Western politics.
Farage’s friend, the reelected US President Trump, similarly confirms this rise of the populist phenomenon. His win was not simply luck, but rather people genuinely supporting his policies (at least in their general form). Similar narratives present a real possibility for the future of Western politics elsewhere.
Furthermore, Reform has been praised by Elon Musk, a powerful confidant of Trump who has repeatedly criticized Starmer. Farage had stated that Musk was considering donating to Reform, but they clashed over Musk’s support for far-right activist Tommy Robinson. Musk has since criticized Farage, though less so his party.
That Reform has supporters from outside the traditional base of populists, such as wealthy backers like Musk, shows its reach has extended and a real impact — backed by donations — is possible. For example, oligarchy (or, in the context of Western society, billionaires) is another famous governance structure that can be somewhat combined with the populist style of leadership. There is every chance that a populist reality for the future of Western society could take this form.
To sum up, the question here is not about the rise of Reform UK, but the broader transformation of the nature of populism — and the emergence of a Western oligarchic style — into a real force. It has become a genuine challenger to the traditional ruling parties in the UK, Europe, the US and elsewhere.

• Dr. Diana Galeeva is an academic visitor to Oxford University.
X: @Dr_GaleevaDiana