What Gaza plan means for US-Egypt ties

Egyptian-American relations have witnessed notable tensions in recent weeks due to President Donald Trump’s insistence on implementing his plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza — a move that was met with firm rejection from Cairo. This Egyptian refusal was not merely a political stance but a clear expression of Egypt’s commitment to its principles, particularly concerning the Palestinian cause and its own national security.
As US pressure mounts, many wonder about the future of relations between the two countries. Will this crisis lead to a diplomatic rupture or will shared strategic interests ensure continued cooperation despite the disagreements?
Since the outbreak of the latest war in Gaza, Israeli and American calls have emerged to evacuate the territory’s Palestinian residents under the pretext of ensuring “Israel’s security.” Although different versions of this plan have been proposed, its core remains the same: pressuring neighboring countries, particularly Egypt, to accept large numbers of Palestinian refugees.
For Egypt, this poses a direct threat to its national security. The Sinai Peninsula, suggested as a potential destination for these refugees, remains a sensitive region that has experienced periodic terrorist activity. Hosting large numbers of Palestinians there without a clear political solution would create long-term security, political and demographic crises. Furthermore, Egypt views agreeing to such displacement as an implicit approval of the liquidation of the Palestinian cause — an injustice to the Palestinian people that Egypt refuses to be part of, as President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has stated.
This rejection is not arbitrary but rather an extension of Egypt’s historical stance against the displacement of Palestinians since the Nakba of 1948. Egypt, which administered Gaza between 1949 and 1967, fully understands the consequences of bearing this burden without a just resolution to the Palestinian issue. Hence, President El-Sisi’s response was unequivocal: “The deportation or displacement of the Palestinian people is an injustice in which we cannot participate.”
The current tensions between Cairo and Washington are not unprecedented, but they represent one of the most severe crises in three decades. As the situation escalates, the key question arises: How will this crisis impact bilateral relations?
Military and economic aid has been the primary leverage the US has wielded. Since the Camp David Accords came into effect in 1979, Egypt has received military aid from Washington. It is today worth about $1.3 billion a year. Trump is now threatening to cut this aid as a means of pressuring Egypt into accepting his plan.
However, the actual impact of such a move may be limited. Egypt no longer relies solely on the US for military procurement; it has diversified its arms sources to include Russia, China and France. Consequently, any reduction in US aid could push Egypt to strengthen alternative alliances, thereby diminishing American influence in the region.

Any US escalation against Egypt could undermine Washington’s ability to achieve its objectives in the region. 

Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy

Beyond military aid, investments and trade play a crucial role in Egyptian-American relations. US companies hold significant investments in Egypt’s energy, infrastructure and technology sectors. However, any American move to impose economic sanctions or reduce investments could backfire, prompting Cairo to deepen its partnerships with the EU, China and the Gulf states to offset any losses.
Egypt’s regional role remains vital, even if it sometimes appears to fluctuate. Cairo is a key player in Middle Eastern affairs, whether as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or as a major actor in regional issues such as Libya and Sudan. Thus, any US escalation against Egypt could undermine Washington’s ability to achieve its objectives in the region.
Israel is acutely aware of this dynamic. Israeli political sources have expressed concerns that deteriorating Egyptian-American relations could jeopardize the Egypt-Israel peace agreement. For Tel Aviv, the peace treaty loses value if Cairo feels compelled to distance itself from Washington.
Could the crisis lead to a complete rupture? This question is circulating within Egypt’s political and media circles. Despite current tensions, a total breakdown in Egyptian-American relations seems unlikely. In practical terms, neither country can afford the consequences of a full diplomatic or economic severance.
From Washington’s perspective, Egypt remains an indispensable partner in the Middle East. Its role in securing the Suez Canal, combating terrorism and managing regional conflicts makes it a critical component of US strategy in the region. Therefore, while Washington may impose symbolic pressures — such as partially suspending aid or issuing public criticisms — it is unlikely to push relations to breaking point.
From Cairo’s standpoint, although it is working to diversify its international alliances, its relationship with the US remains strategically important. Egypt will seek to navigate the crisis carefully, reaffirming its national principles while avoiding unnecessary concessions on the displacement issue.
In this context, Egypt has already taken steps to bolster its diplomatic position. In recent days, Cairo has sent direct messages to Washington underscoring its absolute rejection of the displacement plan. It has also postponed President El-Sisi’s visit to the White House to avoid a potentially contentious meeting that could involve direct American pressure.
Is this a reset or an open confrontation? The prevailing indicators suggest that the Egypt-US crisis will remain within the framework of a reset rather than an outright rupture. The US administration is expected to adopt a more flexible approach toward Cairo, particularly if pressure on Egypt over the displacement issue proves ineffective.
Meanwhile, Egypt will continue to firmly oppose any Palestinian displacement plans, while striving to maintain its ties with Washington based on shared interests.
The current crisis has revealed the limits of American influence in the region and reaffirmed Egypt’s determination to safeguard its national security and make independent decisions free from external pressure. Cairo understands that compromising on the displacement issue would not just be a political mistake, but also a historic catastrophe that would threaten its stability for decades to come.
Ultimately, the question remains: Does Washington recognize that Egypt’s stability is key to regional stability? Or will American pressure persist until it reaches the point of no return? Only the coming days will reveal the trajectory of this strategic relationship.

• Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy has covered conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy