The American fog and Iranian year

The diplomat is familiar with Washington and its hallways where decisions are made. He used to visit at the beginning of presidential terms and return with as many answers and expectations as possible to report to his superiors.

This time, however, he found himself confronted with a difficult task. He came across a Washington that was shrouded in heavy fog and with the world focused on the return of the “strongman” to the White House. Fog covered the whole of the US and the diplomat came back with more questions than answers.

There is a feeling at the White House that the country is at a major turning point. Donald Trump will not make do with changing the furniture at the White House; he is dreaming of changing the country’s political and economic features.

The diplomat said that the new American compass is so shaky that it has confused allies and enemies alike. Going along with Trump is like driving on a bumpy road in an almost impenetrable fog. He returned with the impression that he wanted to end the Russia-Ukraine war, not only because he has his sights set on the Nobel Peace Prize, but to reserve a place for himself in the history books. He seems to be relying on his old friendship with Vladimir Putin to achieve that goal, as it appears that the war has not soured ties between them.

Europe seemed to panic at the possibility of the Ukraine war being decided without it and President Zelensky

The diplomat also sensed that Washington was insistent on firmly tackling the Iranian file on the basis of preventing Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb and from mobilizing its “parallel armies” to destabilize the region. It does not take a lot to realize that Trump wants to make peace in the Middle East. The diplomat paused, however, at Benjamin Netanyahu’s success in securing a close and influential alliance with the Trump administration.

Ever since he returned to the White House, Trump has bombarded the world with a series of statements and posts that have created confusion. He is on the brink of launching a trade war, is tackling the Ukraine file by recognizing the reality on the ground imposed by the Russian war and has created disarray by outrageously suggesting that Gaza’s residents be removed from the enclave so that it can be transformed into a beautiful riviera.

This confusion and fog appear to be absent when it comes to the Iranian nuclear file, on which the Trump administration is not backing down from its positions.

Fog enveloped Europe when J.D. Vance, speaking from Munich, rebuked the countries of the continent for their alleged stifling of freedoms, criticizing them for their approach toward the far right. Europe seemed to panic at the possibility of the Ukraine war being decided without it and President Volodymyr Zelensky. Vance seemed to echo Trump’s past remarks that the US will not pay the price of protecting Europe forever.

Important deadlines are approaching in the Palestinian territories, Iran and Ukraine amid the dense American fog

Trump made such a statement back in 1987, when he was a real estate developer far removed from the world of politics. That year, he visited Moscow and admired the opportunities available there. He declared that Europe could cover the costs of defending itself.

As the Europeans become preoccupied with the fate of the war in Ukraine, the people of the Middle East will be preoccupied not only with peace, but with what will happen with Iran. This is unquestionably Iran’s year. Trump has categorically declared that Iran will not be allowed to possess a nuclear bomb. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that position from Israel on Sunday after meeting Netanyahu, who shared his stance.

The prevailing impression is that there can be no new deal with Iran that does not cover its rocket arsenal and destabilizing role in the region. The question is: Will the Iranian supreme leader agree to make such huge concessions over Iran’s role, especially in the wake of its losses in Syria and Lebanon?

Important deadlines are approaching in the Palestinian territories, Iran and Ukraine amid the dense American fog. Syria, Lebanon and Iraq are also concerned with the fog and the choices America will make. A deep and detailed dialogue with the Trump administration is necessary because protesting is not a form of policy and does not protect stability or rights. An Arab vision for peace based on the two-state solution is necessary. This is the only way to end this chronic conflict.

With its political and economic weight, Saudi Arabia is the leading Arab and Islamic country capable of playing a role to that end. Its hosting of American-Russian meetings ahead of a summit is a testament to that role. It is also recognition by Washington and Moscow of Saudi Arabia’s Arab, Islamic and international standing. The current consultations to prepare an alternative plan to Trump’s Gaza proposal reflect this standing. Moreover, Saudi Arabia can benefit from the strong ties it has forged with heavyweights China and India, as well as the EU.

We must be prepared for the Iranian year. An American-Iranian agreement will mark a major turning point in the region. Israel’s destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities — with American support — will be another major and dangerous development that we must prepare for. The heavy fog should not be an obstacle to safe navigation if countries are prepared, use their strengths and hold dialogue with the Trump administration based on mutual interests, the benefits of stability and revenues from investments and prosperity.

- Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.