What militant’s arrest means for Rohingyas’ future

The arrest by Bangladeshi police of Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi, the leader of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, on the outskirts of Dhaka last week marks a significant turning point in the ongoing conflict in Myanmar. Ataullah’s capture raises critical questions about the future of Rohingya militancy, the shifting dynamics in Rakhine State and the prospects for stability in the region.
Ataullah emerged in 2016-17 as the face of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, a militant group that claimed to defend the Rohingya people against the brutal persecution they faced at the hands of the Myanmar military. While he framed the group as a resistance movement, its activities often exacerbated the suffering of the Rohingya. His rhetoric and actions gained him support from disenfranchised youth seeking protection, while others viewed him as reckless and his actions as counterproductive.
Ataullah’s radicalization was influenced by the systemic discrimination and violence suffered by the Rohingya. He presented himself as a defender of the stateless minority, leveraging grievances to gain followers. However, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army’s lack of sophisticated weaponry and training made it more symbolic than strategic in its operations. Despite its stated goals of protecting the Rohingya, its actions often invited disproportionate and devastating retaliation from the Myanmar military.
Ataullah was captured in Bangladesh, where his group had been increasingly active in refugee camps. His arrest was the culmination of a long-standing crackdown on criminal networks and extremist groups operating in the camps. Bangladeshi authorities, facing mounting pressure to restore order, collaborated with intelligence agencies to apprehend him. While the details of his capture remain undisclosed, it is believed that Ataullah had been attempting to evade arrest by moving between various safe houses.
This development has been welcomed by many who blamed the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army for sowing insecurity within the Rohingya community. Incidents of extortion, targeted killings and forced recruitment attributed to the group have destabilized the refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar. The arrest may lead to the dismantling of its operational network in Bangladesh, though ideological support for the group may persist.
Its attacks on Myanmar border posts in 2016 and 2017 served as a pretext for the military’s genocidal campaign against the Rohingya. The Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s armed forces, unleashed a scorched-earth assault that forced over 700,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh. While the military framed its actions as a counterterrorism response, the overwhelming evidence of mass killings, sexual violence and village burnings revealed the true genocidal intent.

Only through genuine political will and coordinated diplomatic efforts can the cycle of violence and persecution be broken. 

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Human rights organizations and investigative bodies have consistently debunked the narrative that the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army posed a significant security threat. However, the group’s attacks, though limited in scope, were manipulated to justify the ethnic cleansing campaign. Ataullah’s decision to launch these attacks proved catastrophic for his own people, resulting in one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history.
Ataullah’s leadership polarized the Rohingya. Some saw him as a defender of their community, standing up against Myanmar’s systematic persecution when no one else did. For others, particularly the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, his actions brought further suffering and retribution. Reports of its involvement in criminal activities, including extortion and targeted assassinations, further tarnished its reputation.
While the group initially gained support among desperate Rohingya youths, its tactics soon alienated many. Community leaders accused it of undermining efforts for peaceful repatriation and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Ataullah’s rigid leadership style and reluctance to engage in broader political advocacy also limited its influence.
With Ataullah’s arrest, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army’s operational capacity is expected to diminish. However, the root causes of Rohingya militancy remain unresolved. The lack of citizenship, restricted movement and systemic discrimination continue to fuel resentment. Without a comprehensive political solution, the emergence of new militant factions cannot be ruled out.
The Rohingya diaspora and the younger generation growing up in refugee camps have bleak prospects. Limited educational and economic opportunities, coupled with the trauma of genocide, create fertile ground for radicalization. Regional actors and international stakeholders must address these underlying grievances to prevent the resurgence of militant activity.
Complicating the landscape further is the growing influence of the Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine insurgent group that now controls much of Rakhine State. Unlike the Tatmadaw, the Arakan Army has expressed some willingness to negotiate with Rohingya communities. However, its ban on the use of the term “Rohingya” underscores the ongoing challenges in achieving recognition and justice.
The Arakan Army’s territorial gains have reshaped the power dynamics in Rakhine State. With the Myanmar military weakened and distracted by conflicts elsewhere, it has consolidated control over key regions. The group’s pragmatic approach to governance presents a potential opportunity for dialogue, but its long-term commitment to inclusive governance remains uncertain.
The arrest of Ataullah offers an opportunity for regional and international actors to press for a more inclusive and sustainable resolution. Bangladesh, Myanmar’s national unity government and the Arakan Army must engage in meaningful dialogue with Rohingya representatives to address grievances and ensure the safe, voluntary and dignified return of refugees.
International organizations must also expand their support for development initiatives within Rakhine State, creating alternative pathways for disenfranchised young people. Programs focusing on education, vocational training and reconciliation can mitigate the appeal of militancy and contribute to long-term stability.
Ultimately, the fall of one militant leader does not resolve the deep-seated issues facing the Rohingya. Only through genuine political will and coordinated diplomatic efforts can the cycle of violence and persecution be broken, paving the way for a just and lasting peace in Myanmar.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim