How North Africa is asserting itself in a changing world

From Rabat to Cairo, governments in North Africa are shedding old dependencies and embracing new approaches to foreign policy, rapidly redefining their place in the world in the process.
Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya are now, after decades of close alignment with the West, pursuing a more pragmatic form of diplomacy. This is driven by national interests to a greater extent than was the case in the past, and leverages internal and external pressures to inform how they engage with their neighbors and the wider world.
The end result is a strategic rebalancing that collectively embraces the Maghreb’s engagements with external partners on terms that prioritize autonomy while also delivering tangible benefits.
Internal pressures play a key role in this. Economic strife and youth discontent have fueled public demands for leaders to prioritize sovereignty and results over ideological loyalties. Populist currents are channeling anti-colonial sentiment and frustration with Western-imposed economic models, pushing governments to assert their independence from international institutions viewed as unfair or ineffective.
At the same time, security threats from the Sahel to the south are sharpening the region’s strategic focus. The collapse of order in Mali, Niger, and beyond has forced North African countries to shore up their defenses and occasionally step into the role of mediators.
Moreover, the needs of the EU to the north have further empowered Maghreb governments. Europe’s reliance on North African energy and its anxiety over irregular migration have given countries such as Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco newfound leverage in negotiations. Notably, EU policies in the region often center on securing gas supplies and outsourcing migration control, a fact that is not lost on North African leaders.
Equally important is the surge of interest in the region from competing global powers — China, Russia, and Gulf Arab states, among others — which has opened up alternatives to Western partnerships. Beijing and Moscow in particular are viewed as attractive partners because they offer arms, investments, and loans without the political strings that typically accompany Western aid.
As some observers note, North African countries view Sino-Russian cooperation as a preferable model of great-power engagement, one that treats them more as equals. In contrast, the US and Europe often condition support on reforms, breeding resentment over time, especially when well-intentioned interventions spawn fresh crises such as austerity, forced currency devaluations, and uncompromising cuts to the public sector despite rampant unemployment.
Faced with such realities, North African leaders are now actively adopting a multivector foreign policy, courting all available sides to maximize their options (and potentially lucrative returns) while making it clear that loyalty can no longer be taken for granted: It must be earned or bargained for.

Morocco’s foreign policy best reflects this calculated shift. Frustrated by European aid that often came laden with conditionality, or simply unfulfilled promises, Rabat has turned instead to Gulf states for strategic investment and diplomatic backing.
Concurrently, the country has repositioned itself strategically within Africa. Since rejoining the African Union in 2017 after a 33-year hiatus, Morocco has aggressively expanded its economic footprint across the continent, and the nation’s leading banks, telecom businesses, and phosphate companies now operate in dozens of African states.
Algeria, buoyed by hydrocarbon wealth and Europe’s heightened demand for non-Russian gas, is pursuing a newly assertive foreign policy. Given the disruption to European energy security resulting from the war in Ukraine, Algiers has positioned itself as a crucial alternative supplier, negotiating aggressively with Italy and other EU partners to secure favorable agreements that support domestic economic development.

North African leaders are making it clear that loyalty cannot be taken for granted: It must be earned or bargained for.

Hafed Al-Ghwell

President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has also extended this activism southward within Africa itself, notably offering mediation services after the 2023 coup in Niger, and advocating for a revival of Mali’s stalled 2015 peace accords following the withdrawal of France and the arrival of the Russia-backed Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group).
Globally, Algeria is actively working to rebalance its traditional arms relationship with Russia by entering into new defense agreements with China and Turkiye, while remaining adamant about maintaining its selective engagement with the West on security matters by rejecting the establishment of foreign military bases and conditional aid.
The pursuit of observer status in the BRICS group of developing economies, and membership of the bloc’s New Development Bank, also reflect the efforts by Algeria to diversify its engagements while shoring up its status as an influential regional actor and autonomous diplomatic voice.
Egypt, under President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, has reinvigorated its diplomatic activism, positioning itself as an indispensable mediator in regional conflicts, including efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza and facilitate talks on Libya and Sudan.
Since rejoining the African Union in 2014, Egypt has boosted its profile on the continent significantly, notably hosting the 2022 UN Climate Change Conference, COP27, to help amplify African climate finance demands.
Beyond the continent, Cairo remains a leading recipient of US military aid, yet collaborates closely with Russia, which is building Egypt’s first nuclear plant. Meanwhile, ties with China have surged; the value of bilateral trade surpassed $13 billion in 2023 and Beijing financed Egypt’s new administrative capital.
In addition, Gulf states have funneled tens of billions of dollars into Egypt, reducing Cairo’s traditional dependence on conditional Western inflows.
A foreign policy shift in Tunisia since 2011 reflects the country’s mounting economic woes and a pragmatic recalibration under President Kais Saied. Initially hailed as the democratic success story of the Arab Spring, Tunisia eagerly embraced European and US support. But chronic economic stagnation, ongoing instability in neighboring Libya, and democratic backsliding at home prompted Saied to assert national sovereignty more forcefully.
In 2023, he rejected a critical loan from the International Monetary Fund, despite acute financial distress, as he refused to impose austerity measures and turned instead to aid from Algeria and potential investments from the Gulf.
As European influence wanes in Tunis, it is increasingly evident that even smaller North African states are capable of punching above their diplomatic weight by deftly managing a litany of external dependencies.
Well over a decade after its 2011 civil war Libya remains deeply divided, with rival factions independently engaging with foreign allies in an attempt to strengthen their respective positions. In Tripoli, the internationally recognized government secured its survival through such pragmatic alliances with foreign patrons.
In the east of the country, Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army relies on the Russians of the Africa Corps, whose presence provides Moscow with strategic access on NATO’s southern flank. Haftar also receives critical military and financial backing from Arab allies.
By engaging with several foreign patrons simultaneously, both of the Libyan factions effectively balance internal and external pressures, exploiting global rivalries to maintain relative autonomy and optimize their influence and chances of survival.
In different ways and at different speeds, North African states are asserting themselves as independent actors in an increasingly multipolar world. The message is clear: The era of reflexive deference to Western tutelage and paternalism is over.

• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. X: @HafedAlGhwell