Netanyahu eyes West Bank as he oscillates on Gaza

The scenes of Israeli tanks screeching through the gutted streets of the Jenin refugee camp late on Sunday said it all. This was a camp that was home to between 15,000 and 20,000 Palestinian refugees. By the admission of Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, this and other camps are now virtually empty. More than 40,000 Palestinians have been forced to leave the three West Bank camps of Jenin, Tulkarem and Nur Shams in the northern West Bank. He declared that none would be allowed to return and that the Israeli army would stay there for almost a year.

By sending armor into the deserted camps, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to send multiple messages: that his far-right coalition partners can do whatever they want in the West Bank, that the Palestinian Authority can do nothing to stop them, and that annexation is only a step away.

With all eyes on Gaza and the fate of the ceasefire deal with Hamas — now in doubt as Netanyahu has presented new conditions that are almost impossible to accept — the Israeli government is moving ahead with plans to create new realities on the ground in the West Bank.

The deployment of tanks in the territory, for the first time since the 2000 Second Intifada, is a gross violation of the Oslo Accords and of security arrangements with the PA. Israel’s military campaign in the northern West Bank has been ongoing for weeks. So far, it has killed more than 30 Palestinians, destroyed tens of houses and uprooted the entire infrastructure in the three targeted camps.

Those 40,000 displaced Palestinians will not be allowed to return to their homes now or in the near future. For Israel, the destruction of refugee camps is now a central theme of its goal to bury the two-state solution forever. Using Gaza-like destructive methods has become the mainstream policy of the Netanyahu government in the West Bank.

Netanyahu was never happy with accepting the Gaza ceasefire plan. He is using all excuses to derail the agreement and restart the war, even if this means ending any chance of the Israeli captives being returned alive or dead. His goal is to resume the war and delay any investigation into what happened on Oct. 7, 2023. His motives are personal and defy the fact that a majority of Israelis want the second phase of the ceasefire deal to go ahead, even if that means ending the war.

But what about the West Bank? Under pressure from his ultranationalist partners in the ruling coalition, Netanyahu has caved in to demands by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to give the army a free hand in crushing the Palestinians and preparing the ground for the annexation of most of the occupied territory.

There was no need to dispatch tanks into an empty Jenin refugee camp. But the image was needed. The extremists in Israel wanted to use that image as they concoct plans to annex the majority of the occupied lands.

In their view, the Trump administration is on the cusp of recognizing such annexation. For them, Oslo is dead and so is the two-state solution. In the past few weeks, the Israeli government has adopted measures to strangle the PA economically. With the fall of the PA, now that the Trump administration has cut off aid to the security forces, Israel can move in to extend its authority over all of Areas A, B and C, thus rendering all agreements under the Oslo Accord void and irrelevant.

The deployment of tanks in the territory is a gross violation of the Oslo Accords and of security arrangements with the PA

Osama Al-Sharif

Netanyahu knows that Israel will not have its way in Gaza. Donald Trump seems to have withdrawn his outrageous proposal to take over the Strip. Arab leaders will meet early next month to adopt a proposal that responds to that of the US president. Essentially, the Arab proposal will underline two fundamental truths: no forced displacement and a combined effort to rebuild Gaza. While the counterproposal will send a message, the details will present considerable challenges. Who will end up ruling Gaza? What happens to Hamas leaders and fighters? And where will the money come from?

For now, Netanyahu is not bothered by such details. He wants to escalate the situation by threatening to resume the war on Gaza. That remains a distant option for all, including the Trump administration. The onus is now on the Arabs to come up with a realistic scenario that ends the war, removes Hamas from the present formula and ensures that a plan exists to begin the reconstruction efforts.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu sees an opportunity to use the Gaza dilemma to extend Israeli law over the West Bank. If the Trump administration goes along, then an international and an Arab outcry is to be expected. The Israeli move will be recognized as illegal. How such a move will disrupt the current geopolitical structure remains to be seen.

It will be rejected by Arab countries and the majority of the international community. It will derail Trump’s plans to expand the membership of the Abraham Accords. It will test the durability of the peace treaties signed between Egypt and Jordan, on the one hand, and Israel on the other. But more importantly, it will leave the Palestinians with nothing.

That is a recipe for regional disaster. Annexation of the West Bank will trigger a domino effect that Israel cannot control. The question is how Tel Aviv will deal with the more than 3 million Palestinian inhabitants of the West Bank. Forced displacement will be opposed vociferously by Jordan — the only country Palestinians in the West Bank can go to.

Israel’s far right is playing with fire and risking peace with both Jordan and Egypt. To believe that sending tanks into an empty Palestinian camp will change the geopolitical realities on the ground is not only naive but dangerously stupid. After the destruction of more than 90 percent of Gaza, most Palestinians still refuse to leave. The West Bank will be no different.

Netanyahu’s new Middle East sees no future for the Palestinians. This is both wrong and callous. The reality is that Israel will never be accommodated into this region if it thinks it can sacrifice the rights of the Palestinians. Netanyahu and his far-right partners will do their utmost to push Palestinians to the brink, but they can never seal the deal.

In the coming days and weeks, we should brace ourselves for draconian measures to be implemented by Israel on the West Bank Palestinians. But no matter what Israel does, it will never succeed in ending the Palestinians’ resilience and the struggle to reclaim their rights.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010