Israel making yet more enemies with Syria intervention

Since the fall of the Assad regime, the Israeli leadership has consistently shown that it is prepared to hit the new authorities in Syria in a way it never bothered to try when the Assads were in power.

When Bashar Assad was president, Israeli airstrikes in Syria were largely restricted to Iranian targets and to prevent the transfer of weaponry to Hezbollah. At no stage after 2011 did Israel take on the regime. And Russia never tried to thwart Israel’s freedom of operation in the air.

Yet, from the outset, Israel has targeted the new authorities in Syria. In the two days following Assad’s fall last December, Israel carried out more than 500 strikes on Syrian military targets. This included naval facilities and alleged chemical weapons sites.

Israel also helped itself to extra territory. It moved into the 235 sq. km demilitarized zone that was defined by the 1974 disengagement agreement and even beyond. It has set up nine outposts in this new area with the declared aim of complete control of the zone. Israel wants to have the strategic Mount Hermon (Jabal Al-Sheikh) under its control, giving it a view of both Damascus and the Bekaa Valley.

Initially, Israel told the UN Security Council that these were “limited and temporary measures.” By February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was declaring that Israel would remain there “indefinitely.”

In the two days following Assad’s fall, Israel carried out more than 500 strikes on Syrian military targets

Chris Doyle

In addition, Israel has been lobbying the US to retain the sanctions imposed on the Assad regime. The EU and the UK have gradually eased their sanctions regimes, but the US has been reluctant. This holds Syria back because, with US banking sanctions in place, businesses and investors will not take the risk of doing business there — a vital stage in revitalizing the dead Syrian economy. Syrian expats feel nervous about sending remittances to their families.

Israel has tried to enforce a demilitarized zone in southern Syria. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Tel Aviv would “not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon.” He would not allow any attempt by the Syrian government to establish a presence in the security zone and that it has to be totally demilitarized.

To reinforce these actions, the Israeli authorities have allocated themselves a role as guardian of the Druze communities in southern Syria. Israeli officials have reached out to Druze figures, trying to tempt them with offers of work in the Golan Heights, with mixed results.

Is all this because Israel is nervous of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham? Its extremist heritage is well known, having grown out of Al-Qaeda, which it left in 2016. Many Syrians remain nervous about HTS. But what realistic threat does Syria pose to Israel now or in the near future?

Syrian Arab Republic President Ahmad Al-Sharaa has been at pains not to provoke Israel or use it, as he might have done, as a populist move to condemn his southern neighbor at every turn. Al-Sharaa knows that Syrians have endured decades of hollow anti-Israel rhetoric from the Assads, so many would be skeptical if he followed that path.

Or is this another example of Israeli aggression and opportunism, expanding its territorial domains at the expense of Syria and to further destabilize its northern neighbor?

Israeli leaders should have seen, from their vantage point, a positive to the exit of the Assad regime

Chris Doyle

Much does not make sense. Israeli leaders should have seen, from their vantage point, a positive to the exit of the Assad regime, as well as the weakening of Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon. Logically, Israel should be supportive of a situation where Iran is kept out. If this Syrian transition fails and Syria falls apart again, Iran could exploit this.

Anarchy in Syria would be ideal for extremist groups. Daesh is looking to exploit every opportunity to stir things up. This is hardly in Israel’s interests.

This argument is reinforced by Netanyahu himself trying to take credit for the fall of Assad. On the one hand, he is seeking praise for Assad’s downfall, while on the other he is disparaging what followed. He is trying to have it both ways.

Another Israeli motivation might be to thwart Turkiye’s ambitions in Syria. Israel’s relations with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are close to nonexistent. Israeli leadership figures do not want to see Turkiye being the dominant external actor inside Syria. But Israel’s approach to sanctions makes Syria even more dependent on Ankara.

Israel should adopt a different approach. Instead of resorting to its traditional policy of force first, second and third, it has an opportunity to reach out and assist, to help the transition and be seen as a positive force for change in Syria. It could have played an active role in getting US sanctions lifted and appeared to be on the side of the people.

Syrians associate Israel with raining on their parade. Syrians tell me that, every time they celebrate, Israeli bombs fall — just as they did after the Assad regime’s demise. This also happened to Deraa as it celebrated the anniversary of the start of the 2011 uprising two weeks ago.

Sadly, for all concerned, Israel is busy making enemies rather than winning friends. It has enough of the latter and an ever-increasing number of the former.

Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech